Now a pedant might wish to pull you up on your "30yrs of PDO-ve" seeing as it was positive for most of the period and is now struggling (since98'?) to turn negative .Even though NASA called it a few years back the figures are still not all that convincing with seemingly an even spread of neg and pos figures across the period. Strangely is you -1 from all the figures you get a convincing pdo-ve since 98'..............
Gandalf The White wrote:
So thirty years of a warming ocean should just flip to cold just like that. Come off it GW, I say come back in 12 months, and if we haven't started too see a reduction in those anomolies, the you have a case!
Solar Cycles wrote:
SC, sometimes this debate is akin to trying to nail jelly to the ceiling....
So, you want me to believe that an average El Nino event was responsible for one of the warmest northern hemisphere winters on record?
Or alternatively you want me to believe that somehow the heat of the cumulative excess of El Ninos over La Ninas since 1976 has somehow been retained somewhere in the system? The latter would be surprising, considering that the sceptics keep flagging that the "missing heat of AGW" cannot be explained - in which case where is this latent effect please?
Here's the ENSO graph, for ease of reference:
http://www.oarval.org/MAI_1950-2010-Nov4-2010-ts.gif
If you have a mechanism that explains this, and which Tom and the other experts agree is sound, then I will very willingly accept that something needs revising in the AGW modelling.

Gray-Wolf wrote: