Not for the first time the Control looks for an Easterly

I think that is to misread the chart. I don't think the Atlantic is fired up at all - the problem we have is with the stubborn Euro HP which won't give way - that steers the wind in from the SW with its damp and drizzly muck.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/00_111_mslp500.png?cb=332 

This little feature has the potential to deliver to lower levels if the charts progress a little more in the right direction.

If this weans just one TWO member off the madness of the longer range charts, it's been worth it! 😆

Yes the madness of longer range charts.If you cant find anything cold looking in the short term there  is solice in finding the odd bitterly cold ensemble member>however like a mirage they usually fade way as you get closer to the present!

So today's peek at the 240h and 360h GEFS ens.At 240h 50:50 spit mild : cold with most of cold members being anticyclones over or close to the UK.So not a cold airflow as such but enough for a frost or two.And an opportunity for HP to shift into amore favourable posoition although low probability.At 360h 65:35 split with zonal dominant.

Interesting

That's one hell of a temperature contrast

Very interesting indeed. The entire set up seems to be on a knifedge and a tweak here and there in the earlier part of the run, would end up in an entirely different set up. The High over Southern Greenland/Iceland is under attack North and South and very uncertain where this run is going to head from here 

hope and praying this isnt a cold outlier - ive a sneaky suspicion it might be. :(

Proper winter storm that.

A cold feed and good to see , before the HP settles over us

Most significant warming of the upper strat to date from the GFS by Xmas really. This would have some impact...

https://twitter.com/MattHugo81

I was just thinking the same, it would be a snow fest here in the Cairngorms would that and indeed for many Northern areas.

12z will no doubt be completely different 

Yes, a stonker of a run if you're into cold weather. A very cold week or so in the lead up to Christmas and then the prospect of a Scandi High developing at the end of the projection. Only 1 run and the chances of it materialising are remote at this stage, but a bit of interest at least. 

Lets hope that helps later

Control hints at something but then desperately tries to bring something from the East

I'd take those charts too, please Marcus

impressive temperature contrast

http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20151208/06/237/ukmaxtemp.png

Not just the far north in the mix, more of a east/west split.


I remember a scenario like this about 15 yrs ago - maybe more. I remember a stretched deep LP running south west/North east. It was bringing blizzards to northern england, but where i live - i was still being bathed in SW's meaning it was about 10*C . It stayed like that for a few days too. There was a very defined boundary out in the irish sea where the colder air was.  IT took forever for the boundary to reach us.

Wish i knew the date, but the weather was fairly significant - someone should be able to remember.

Cheers Darren

The cold would follow