Late today. Been out on an Amble.

Met Office Hadley     15.2c.   Anomaly   1.4c. Provisional to 23rd.

Metcheck                 14.99c.  Anomaly   1.27c.

N-W                         15.56c. Anomaly   1.86c.

Mount Sorrel             15.05c  Anomaly    1.35c.

My   Mean                 16.2c.  Anomaly     1.6c.

According to the Met Office CET data table http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html we need a CET anomaly of +1.12 from now to the end of the year to beat the all time annual CET record this year (10.82 in 2006)

As the anomaly so far this year is +1.43 according to this table, that looks decidedly do-able - we could of course have a very cold late autumn / early winter and get nowhere near

Met Office Hadley      15.2c.      Anomaly    1.3c.  Provisional to 24th.

Metcheck                  14.86c.    Anomaly    1.14c.

N-W                         15.46c.    Anomaly    1.77c.

Mount Sorrel             14.92c.    Anomaly     1.22c.

My   Mean                 16.0c.     Anomaly      1.5c.

It will be touch and go as to whether September finishes up warmer than August. Currently I expect the September CET to finish at 14.93C. The August CET finished at 14.95C.

As we are in with a good chance of a record CET this year I thought it was time to set up a tracker for the annual CET to see how we are doing.

The chart below shows the annual CET tracker from 16 Sept through to the end of the year. I have included all years where the CET finished at 10.50C or above and also years where the CET at the end of Sept, Oct or Nov was in the top handful of years. So for example this includes 1846 (the yellow line) which has the highest CET on record to the end of September but dips well out of contention by the end of the year due to a cold finish.

As of 25 Sept 2014 is in fourth place in the rankings behind 1846, 1990 and also just behind 2003 but just ahead of 1779. 2014 is the white line.

Based on current projections the 2014 CET could be at 11.68C by 30 Sept following a relatively warm final few days of the month. This would leave us in 2nd place at the end of the month just behind 1846. The figures below are based on the average daily CET means (the figures I quoted earlier in the thread were just simple averages of each monthly figure which is less accurate as of course not all months have the same number of days).

1846 11.70C
2014 11.68C prov.
1779 11.67C
1990 11.64C

The top 6 annual CET means for reference (again using daily CET means) are:

2006 10.86C
2011 10.71C
1990 10.66C
1999 10.66C
1949 10.64C
2002 10.62C

2006 was quite a remarkable year because even at 15 Sept it was third coolest of all the years in the chart. This is partly due to the cool first 3 months of the year. By contrast the final 4 months of 2006 were incredibly warm which is why it is currently the warmest year on record. 2011 shows a similar pattern being way down the list at 15 Sept and still way behind even at 15 Nov. But a very warm end to the year pushed it into second place. The point of mentioning this I suppose is that if 2014 also sees a very warm finish to the year then we could easily come in above 11C and possibly even above 11.1C. 

12.4c  For me please. Regardless of the consequences ....  In October.....

Met Office Hadley     15.1c.       Anomaly    1.3c.   Provisional to 25th.

Metcheck                 14.92c.     Anomaly    1.20c.

N-W                        15.39c.     Anomaly    1.7c.

Mount Sorrel             14.99c.    Anomaly    1.29c.

My    Mean                16.0c.      Anomaly    1.5c.

That would go some way to repairing the damage from last month.

Duplicate here.  Warm sunny and not that cold at night thanks to the warm blanket of the sea.

Another warm week to come.  What a warm year 2014 is proving to be.  The run of warmest years being almost all since 1990 is a very telling statistic.

WI

Met Office Hadley         15.1c.      Anomaly     1.4c.    Provisional to 26th.

Metcheck                     14.87c.    Anomaly     1.15c.

N-W                            15.43c.    Anomaly     1.74c.

Mount Sorrel                14.94c.    Anomaly     1.24c.

My  Mean                     16.0c.     Anomaly      1.5c.

I thought it would be interesting to post up the differences by month this year between the provisional Hadley figures which are published each day and the final figures for each day which are published at the end of the month. Historically there has been a significant downward adjustment to the provisional figures.

This year we see that in the early part of the year the downward adjustment was very small indeed. The figure then increased significantly and peaked in mid summer before starting to tail off again. This is not a pattern I particularly recall from the past. Generally a significant adjustment could occur in any month and we have seen adjustments as high as 0.5C in the past. It will be interesting to see if the adjustments reduce again as we move through Autumn.

For completeness I have also included the Manley CET figures for 2014 as a comparison to the final Hadley data. Generally in recent times Manley has tended to be slightly higher than Hadley and this trend has continued during 2014 with only February going in the other direction. The Manley data can be found at this link: Manley monthly CET data

If we look at the September data so far we see that my calculations suggest the provisional Hadley data is currently running (up to 26th) 0.23C too high overall.

What is quite remarkable about 2014 is that not a single month has seen a CET mean close to average. All bar one month have seen an anomaly of more than 1C. This trend has continued in September. The smallest anomaly this year was in May when we were 0.94C above the 1971-2000 mean.

The CET's been falling slightly at a time when my local mean has been rising slightly.

The difference in conditions this month has been vast; my local mean sits at 16.12*C. In fact it's hard to comprehend that the CET is sub-15*C right now - though it must be within a chance of finishing more or less at 15*C thanks to the warm final few days.

Around here it's been a weird month really, with only one notable spell of rain and a large number of calm, cloudy yet unseasonably warm days. Yesterday took that to the extreme, feeling more like a naff (on account of only a glimmer of sun) but very usable day... in July!

Yes there is quite a contrast around the UK this month. The south and the north are a long way above average whereas central areas have been less warm.

Using 1981-2010 data from Roger Brugge's site http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/CURR.html

Carlisle is 1.5C above normal and Altnaharra is 2.0C above normal.

In the south Boscombe Down is 1.6C above normal and Heathrow 1.5C

However, in the CET area Pershore is only 0.8C above normal and Dishforth (not too far from Stonyhurst) 0.7C above normal.

Met Office Hadley    15.1c.     Anomaly   1.3c.   Provisional to 17th.

Metcheck                14.90c.   Anomaly   1.18c.

N-W                       15.4c.     Anomaly   1.71c.

Mount  Sorrel          14.96c.   Anomaly   1.26c.

My  Mean                16.0c.    Anomaly    1.5c.  

Blimey. I wish this was a southern England mean temperature competition now - I'd be laughing 

That is quite interesting, my local mean anomaly is +1.0C, so kind of fits in with Pershore et al.

Met office Hadley   15.1c.      Anomaly      1.4c.     Provisional to  28th.

Metcheck              14.95c.     Anomaly     1.23c.

N-W                     15.46c.     Anomaly     1.77c

Mount  Sorrel        15.06c.     Anomaly     1.36c.

My   Mean             16.1c.      Anomaly      1.6c.     

Still 12.6C (+0.1) here, can't change much now.

12.4c here which is higher than the 11.5c of last month, rather unusual.

We also had 3 air frosts last month and have had none this month with the lowest being 3.1c

Hopefully it'll just squeak in at 15.1c...

My rough calculations still indicating a final figure of 14.94C.

Met Office Hadley   15.1c.    Anomaly   1.5c.  Provisional to 29th.

Metcheck               14.97c.  Anomaly   1.78c.

N-W                      15.47c.  Anomaly   1.78c.

Mount  Sorrel         15.10c. Anomaly    1.40c.

My   Mean              16.1c.  Anomaly     1.6c.

That will do nicely