The Weather Outlook

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GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
31 August 2014 21:19:02
14.6C for me please. 🙂
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)

Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)

Stormchaser
31 August 2014 21:35:02
I suppose its worth going for a wild prediction just in case it pays off - 16.4*C please
If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 

2025's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 32.0°C 12th Aug | T-Min: -5.4°C 4th Jan | Wettest Day: 31.8 mm 18th Dec | Ice Days: None

Keep Calm and Forecast On

John S2
31 August 2014 22:45:52
My guess = +14.4c
Darren S
31 August 2014 22:50:49

14.9C please


Darren

Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)

South Berks Winter Snow Depth Totals:

2023/24 0 cm; 2022/23 7 cm; 2021/22 1 cm; 2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm

nouska
31 August 2014 22:56:17
14.3 please.
Dingle Rob
31 August 2014 22:58:26

14.5C please.

Chidog
01 September 2014 01:50:43

14.5 please

rickm
01 September 2014 07:17:59

Sorry it's a bit late - been away for the weekend - 13.6 for me please.

JOHN NI
01 September 2014 07:33:42
14.85C please.
John.

The orange County of Armagh.

Hippydave
01 September 2014 19:15:41

Forgot I hadn't done this yet

Think I'll go with 14.7c


Home: Tunbridge Wells

Work: Tonbridge

ARTzeman
02 September 2014 11:00:13

ONLY THE FIRST READING....

 

Met Office Hadley            15.6c.      Anomaly        0.8c.   Provisional to 1st.

Metcheck                        14.33c.    Anomaly        0.61c.

N-W                               15.82c.    Anomaly        2.93c.

Mount Sorrel                   14.73c.    Anomaly        1.03c.

My  Mean                         16.7c      Anomaly        2.5c.

  




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

ARTzeman
03 September 2014 11:38:58

Met Office Hadley          15.1c      Anomaly    0.3c. Provisional to  2nd.

Metcheck                      14.96c.   Anomaly    1.24c.

N- W                            15.72c.   Anomaly     2.03c.

Mount   Sorrel               15.33c    Anomaly     1.63c.

My  Mean                      16.5c.    Anomaly      2.00c.

        




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Stormchaser
03 September 2014 11:59:11

A rough estimate from the GFS 00z gives a CET of around 16.2*C for 1st-10th September.

It gets held back by chilly nights from Sunday onward. GFS is showing warmest version of events for the weekend currently on offer from the models, but ECM, UKMO and GEM all show warmer options for next week (in terms of overnight minimums) so I guess those counter reasonably well to give a good idea of the current model consensus.

 

It really puts Setepmber 2006 into perspective doesn't it? How on earth did we manage a 16.8*C CET for the whole month that year 


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 

2025's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 32.0°C 12th Aug | T-Min: -5.4°C 4th Jan | Wettest Day: 31.8 mm 18th Dec | Ice Days: None

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Saint Snow
03 September 2014 13:09:59

Has GW posted the full list of September entrants yet?

I fear I may be at or close to the top (warmest)


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

garybournemouth
03 September 2014 13:51:17

Has GW posted the full list of September entrants yet?

I fear I may be at or close to the top (warmest)

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

Going by what stormchaser has said today in the model output, that might not be a bad thing.


ARTzeman
04 September 2014 11:49:15

 

Met Office Hadley      15.8c.      Anomaly     1.0c.    Provisional to  3rd.

Metcheck                  15.45c.    Anomaly      1.73c.

N- W                        16.26c.    Anomaly       2.57c.

Mount  Sorrel            15.66c     Anomaly       1.96c.

My Mean                   16.7c.      Anomaly       2.2c.

 




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Gavin P
04 September 2014 15:12:38

Starting to be a bit of a shove upwards now, though to be honest, where I am it hasn't felt anything other than "average" for early September, mainly due to the annoying persistence of a lot of low cloud.

Today has been pretty much universally overcast all day...


Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

Quantum
04 September 2014 19:02:31

A very late 14.3 :S


25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Hungry Tiger
04 September 2014 19:11:34

Starting to be a bit of a shove upwards now, though to be honest, where I am it hasn't felt anything other than "average" for early September, mainly due to the annoying persistence of a lot of low cloud.

Today has been pretty much universally overcast all day...

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

And with that overcast day I got a maximum of 22C.

I wonder what it would have been if it had been sunny.

 


Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



Global Warming
04 September 2014 19:54:33

Latest update shows the CET is expected to rise for another day getting just above 16C before beginning a steady downward trend in line with what we would expect to see at this time of year.

The warm start may still keep us at least 0.5C above average by the 18th.

Hungry Tiger
04 September 2014 20:02:31

It would be great if it could carry on - There's nothing better than a warm autumn.

 


Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



Global Warming
04 September 2014 20:27:08

Here is the full list of predictions. As I was a bit late posting up the thread this month there are no penalties for those whose predictions were made on 1 September.

Quantum
04 September 2014 20:31:49

Wow thanks GW for including, really screwed up this month with my late prediction, I'm happy to accept a penalty rather than being relegated to the bottom quartile 


25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

ARTzeman
05 September 2014 09:01:33

Thanks for the list of Predictions GW ....




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Stormchaser
05 September 2014 10:00:04

It's fun being the insane one for a change 

I'm surprised at the CET barely edging above 16*C to the 6th though, given how mild the nights have been recently due to extensive cloud cover and a warm air mass. I guess one or more of the CET stations has been under clearer skies?

My local mean looks to be all the way up at 17.3*C to 6th September.


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 

2025's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 32.0°C 12th Aug | T-Min: -5.4°C 4th Jan | Wettest Day: 31.8 mm 18th Dec | Ice Days: None

Keep Calm and Forecast On

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