Having seen Gav's video of winter 78/79 a repeat of that would be good.

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This is all about where you reside, for me you can't beat a Greeny high as that always guarantees the white stuff IMBY. You can keep your Scandinavia highs as 9/10 they fail to deliver for the majority of us.

 

Only on the first few days before the winds turn NE - and then you can say good bye to any snow in Northwest england apart from the odd weakening front, or passing cloud.  

 

Better chance of stalling fronts etc when the HP is positioned more to the east.  

 

In my experience they both go hand in hand though, and often start as a Scandi HP moving to Greenland or vice versa.

 

 

As always, the devil is in the detail. A Greenland High (or general northern blocking) can be great for NW England, if it forces a meridional Jet, aligning in the 'right' position Dec 09/Jan 10 and Dec 10 were all the result of northern/Greenland blocking. as was Dec 81. Other times, it can give us little or no snow if the blocking isn't in the right position.

In response to the original question by the chap from the Brendon Hills, the reason TWO appears to crave a Scandy High so much is because by far the most members are based in the South East, where a Scandy High is far more likely to deliver snow than over the NW of England.

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According to the non-solar SLATless antipodean forecasting system:-

Very mild start.   December may well be snow and frost free in most parts.    Ski resorts worried.   Year ends warmest on record.

However a spell of quite cold and snowy weather setting in around end of Jan or first half of Feb 2015 - which could even produce some record lows in one of two spots and/or significant snow falls in places that rarely see much snow.

Overall though, a milder than average winter - despite the late cold snap.

Sounds very realistic to me. Also I think that would please most people as well.

With heating bills at the rate they are now - Most right minded people are in no hurry for a 2010 type of cold spell.

 

Heating bills are irrelevant when it comes to winter weather whichever form that takes be it cold or wet and stormy like last winter.

They are when you have log burners

I thought this thread was about the weather, not curries.

very good

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One benefit of the wet winter last year is the vast quantities of branches and scrap wood I've collected from the fields beside the River Tone. Every time the river burst its banks it deposited a bonanza of potential firewood. It's an ill wind that blows no good imo.

All nicely cut up and dried now after this very decent summer. I actually have nearly enough for a couple of winters (or a single 1963 one). It also appears to have been a very decent and straightforward early harvest so far. It would be nice to think that these last few months have been Nature's way of allowing us to prepare us for a memorable winter.

As regards a forecast, the only one I can come up with is that memorable winters seem, from our limited records, to require the Pacific Decadal Oscillation to be in its 30-year cold phase, which it currently is. So there's a possibility of something extreme, which might not be there in a warm phase of the PDO. But, as always, the greater likelihood is for something on the average-to-mild side (cf 2012-13).

That's next to useless as a forecast, of course, but any seasonal forecast involving a solid prediction of what the weather will be is worse than useless imo.

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If only  http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1987/archives-1987-1-12-0-1.png

 

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If only  http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1987/archives-1987-1-12-0-1.png

 

  if that happens ill eat my laptop..     

This is all about where you reside, for me you can't beat a Greeny high as that always guarantees the white stuff IMBY. You can keep your Scandinavia highs as 9/10 they fail to deliver for the majority of us.

 

Only on the first few days before the winds turn NE - and then you can say good bye to any snow in Northwest england apart from the odd weakening front, or passing cloud.  

 

Better chance of stalling fronts etc when the HP is positioned more to the east.  

 

In my experience they both go hand in hand though, and often start as a Scandi HP moving to Greenland or vice versa.

 

 

As always, the devil is in the detail. A Greenland High (or general northern blocking) can be great for NW England, if it forces a meridional Jet, aligning in the 'right' position Dec 09/Jan 10 and Dec 10 were all the result of northern/Greenland blocking. as was Dec 81. Other times, it can give us little or no snow if the blocking isn't in the right position.

In response to the original question by the chap from the Brendon Hills, the reason TWO appears to crave a Scandy High so much is because by far the most members are based in the South East, where a Scandy High is far more likely to deliver snow than over the NW of England.

 

strangley - an easterly wind favours snow for us on the wirral.  Because of our proximity to the sea/rivers, i prefer the wind coming off the land mass than the sea.  Plenty of snow events have been a wet affair from the coast to chester around these parts.  Even if its 0*c.  I would say 60% of any snow events that hit north west england are actually snow when they come off the sea.  where as you are garunteed snow of any sort from the east, even if its less intense.

 

Northerlys or northwesterlys bring snow south of the Dee. We very seldom see snow in these parts - not saying we dont get it.  but not as much as even London centre does i would say. 

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If only  http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1987/archives-1987-1-12-0-1.png

 

  if that happens ill eat my laptop..     

Knife and fork at the ready sizzle!

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Hi all, realy hope its a cold one  with snow snow snow

I think it's odds on that this winter will be better than last year for sure - if we are lucky a prolonged severe snowy spell

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This winter will almost certainly be a lot better than last one although not hard of course, we should at lest get some week spells of bitter cold and snow i would think, i really think the chance of a really brutal (47 or 63 esque) one comes towards the end of the decade IMO, A favourable ENSO, QBO, etc will surely co-inside with non-exsistant sunspot activity at some point around 2018/2019.

With an SST pattern not dissimilar to last winter still hanging around and managing to be more notable than it was this time last year, and signs already in the mid-range model output of the Atlantic becoming very energetic at times, I'm given the impression that this year may see a similar stormy period to that of 2013/14, but beginning perhaps a month or so sooner.

Whether we then get to see the pattern shifting to something colder for the UK not long into 2015 would then depend on the extent to which the SST pattern was either reinforced or altered by the broad scale pattern, which will depend on numerous factors such as the Arctic pressure patterns (linked to stratospheric temperatures), the distribution of cold and warm air across the US, the behaviour of the Gulf Stream and so on.

 

In short, replicating last winter would be extraordinary given how many different forcing variables have to come together to create a snowless winter for such notable swathes of the UK. Unfortunately, the dice do seem to be loaded towards starting from an unfavourable position for cold, but who knows maybe something will change the game at some point this time around.

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I notice the Met Office have uploaded UK snow surveys for winters from 1953 to 1992

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/archive/snow-survey 

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With an SST pattern not dissimilar to last winter still hanging around and managing to be more notable than it was this time last year, and signs already in the mid-range model output of the Atlantic becoming very energetic at times, I'm given the impression that this year may see a similar stormy period to that of 2013/14, but beginning perhaps a month or so sooner.

Whether we then get to see the pattern shifting to something colder for the UK not long into 2015 would then depend on the extent to which the SST pattern was either reinforced or altered by the broad scale pattern, which will depend on numerous factors such as the Arctic pressure patterns (linked to stratospheric temperatures), the distribution of cold and warm air across the US, the behaviour of the Gulf Stream and so on.

 

In short, replicating last winter would be extraordinary given how many different forcing variables have to come together to create a snowless winter for such notable swathes of the UK. Unfortunately, the dice do seem to be loaded towards starting from an unfavourable position for cold, but who knows maybe something will change the game at some point this time around.

 

I agree, infact Gavin Ps assesment discussed a chart - which to me seemed very similar to last year pattern in terms of Storms being spawned off the East American coast.  However - I do feel that we dont have all the ingredients (as you say ) for a repeat of last year in full.

 

Based on some of the long term forecasts being issued at the moment iei Jamstec, NOAA CSV2 etc, it seems we are going into an average "bit of everything " winter.  indeed if we get slammed by LP after LP - it wouldnt take much for a LP to move slightly south and we draw in the cooler/colder stormy conditions.  Infact - last year regardless of the storms wasnt exceptionally mild.  We were only 2-3*c away at times from snowmagedon.  Proof of this was in the fact the scottish mountains had one of the best winters on record. 

 

Too much energy to allow prolonged periods of any weather will be my guess.  ie - how it was in the mid 90s-2000s.

 

 

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Does anyone know if the Met Office still issua an NAO forecast for the winter ahead based on May SSTs? I've not seen or heard about this for a while.

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This winter will almost certainly be a lot better than last one although not hard of course, we should at lest get some week spells of bitter cold and snow i would think, i really think the chance of a really brutal (47 or 63 esque) one comes towards the end of the decade IMO, A favourable ENSO, QBO, etc will surely co-inside with non-exsistant sunspot activity at some point around 2018/2019.

 

Saying that - we could have an exact repeat of last year, and sneak in a short snow shower and an overnight frost and it would still be better than last year.

 

 

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If only  http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1987/archives-1987-1-12-0-1.png

 

  if that happens ill eat my laptop..     

Knife and fork at the ready sizzle!

Well, we can't deny it. It actually did happen! Does that count?

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Review of winter 2014/5 indicators.

1.ENSO.

Latest diagnostic discussion from NOAA suggests a weak El Nino in range 0.5-1.0.Overall El Nino's tend to be followed by warmer than avewrage winters with the link getting stronger for the higher El Nino levels.Weak El Ninos return 50.50 for the following winter.

On balance I would say the ENSO signal points to a warmer than average winter.

2.QBO

Last year had avery long and very strong +ve QBO and was followed by a strong NAO and warm winter.However the record of the link  between QBO and winter CET is patchy.For what its worth the QBO is now in negative phase (-19) which points to below average winter temps.

3.SST's

I always find the pattern (May/June) difficulkt to ineroret but there didn't seem to be the clear tripole which links to NAO-ve winters.Verdict therfor ethat SSt,s favour a warmer than average winter.

4.Sunspots

The solar cycle peaked in fenb 2104 at 102.6 and is now falling away at 72.5 in July.The only real verifiable link to lower than solar cycleaverage CET is around  the solar minimum(University of Reading studies).So little influence likely at this stage of the solar cycle.

5.Model predictions

Meto has for its 3 month Dec,Jan,Feb winter indicator above average temperature,,below average pressure and average rainfall.

CFS currently shows average temperature and pressure.

6.Seasonal predictors

Spring 2014 was a Very Warm wet season and summer is likely to finosh overall very warm and dry.Both of thes etypes tend to be follwed by warmer than average winters.

OVERALL PREDICTION

I would stick my neck out and simply say that winter 2014/15 is likely to be warmer than average.

Review of winter 2014/5 indicators.

1.ENSO.

Latest diagnostic discussion from NOAA suggests a weak El Nino in range 0.5-1.0.Overall El Nino's tend to be followed by warmer than avewrage winters with the link getting stronger for the higher El Nino levels.Weak El Ninos return 50.50 for the following winter.

On balance I would say the ENSO signal points to a warmer than average winter.

2.QBO

Last year had avery long and very strong +ve QBO and was followed by a strong NAO and warm winter.However the record of the link  between QBO and winter CET is patchy.For what its worth the QBO is now in negative phase (-19) which points to below average winter temps.

3.SST's

I always find the pattern (May/June) difficulkt to ineroret but there didn't seem to be the clear tripole which links to NAO-ve winters.Verdict therfor ethat SSt,s favour a warmer than average winter.

4.Sunspots

The solar cycle peaked in fenb 2104 at 102.6 and is now falling away at 72.5 in July.The only real verifiable link to lower than solar cycleaverage CET is around  the solar minimum(University of Reading studies).So little influence likely at this stage of the solar cycle.

5.Model predictions

Meto has for its 3 month Dec,Jan,Feb winter indicator above average temperature,,below average pressure and average rainfall.

CFS currently shows average temperature and pressure.

6.Seasonal predictors

Spring 2014 was a Very Warm wet season and summer is likely to finosh overall very warm and dry.Both of thes etypes tend to be follwed by warmer than average winters.

OVERALL PREDICTION

I would stick my neck out and simply say that winter 2014/15 is likely to be warmer than average.

Hope you are wrong - for all us cold fans

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Does anyone know if the Met Office still issua an NAO forecast for the winter ahead based on May SSTs? I've not seen or heard about this for a while.

As far as I know, they still do it privately and it makes up part of the forecast they issue to contingency planners, but it's not made public.

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