Cue Darren

Not so good really. Our long time friend the Canadian vortex is still doing its best to the spoil the party judging by this mornings main op output. Struggling to settle down in the medium to long term with the threat of more wind for all early next week.

ECM and GFS both have high pressure to our south in FI which would restrict and good weather to the SE.

The only common theme is that winter is unlikely to return in March according to current output so most areas will keep their zero lying snow record this winter.

Andy

Holy crap. Just when I thought it was safe to put away the Mac and Brolly, the roaring jet returns to flatten our high. The South will stay less wet but any rain, even small amounts. is causing groundwater flows to reach surface. Further flooding reported locally from last nights rain and I dread to think what will happen later on today when these showers get going

You couldn't make it up - Azores high is now becoming like the phantom easterly - many shown but nearer the time it gets pushed back to further into FI! So much for the spring like weather, even down in the SE looking precarious after Saturday, FI it has another go Azores high wise but poor runs this morning if early spring warmth and dry weather you are after compared to the last few days of runs.

GFS ensemble tells the story - you could have picked this from any day in the winter and it looks the same temperature wise, granted the rainfall isn't as much but even that has picked up from recent runs:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Hi Andy

Or in my case zero falling snow record - not a single flake and just 1 or 2 frosts!! Simply amazing

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1441.html 

Uh-oh.

The small trough next week that was being modelled to drop south and prop up a strong ridge building over the top of it is now suddenly being taken NE instead.

That means the Atlantic gets some support instead of the high pressure ridge.

A real shame if this change sticks - still generally drier in the south but still with frontal systems moving through preventing a run of reliably decent weather.

...but relax - it's only early March! 

Models looking somewhat dodgy this morning with our ridge coming under attack from the mighty Atlantic.

Things are never straight forwards in this country are they.

06z continues the poor output this morning. Constant battle with the Azores and Atlantic. Most of the rain in northern areas

Look again, the warm has always been a a couple of days wonder Vinnie

Hi all,

Here's the March month ahead forecast video;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Quite a trivcy month to pin down actually.

The ukmo also looks very Spring like.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png 

Slightly less settled, but still milder than normal in the north.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.html 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.html 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.html 

Getting toasty by day 10!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html 

But Some days the Western and Northern to Central parts see cool to colder weather with rain and showers and breezy Low Pressure on just some parts of the same period.

So a bit of a recovery this evening as the energy in the Atlantic digs a bit further south before hiking NE... that at least promotes more of a ridge both ahead and behind it, saving us from a renewed Atlantic train - but it does rely on a bit of luck here and there.

ECM seems to have decided that now its spring, the day 9-10 teases must follow a theme of high pressure and 10*C uppers near to or over the UK, as opposed to biting easterlies 

That lots nice - bring it on.

I'm certainly not. I dsmissed any possibility of a winter here some weeks ago and with the daffs out, the early blossom in flower and birds singing away in the mornings, bring on the sun and more especially good riddance to the rain I say.

12C toasty?

If you want to know what that set-up may bring look at this site and it has London at 12C for that day

http://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/London/long.html 

AllyPallySnowman over-exaggerates wamth on charts for whatever reason. See this link earlier in the thread where he was going on about 20C being possible from a similar chart!

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&m=585863#post585863

As you say, the ECMWF chart isn't exactly "toasty". Reading has a high of 13C on that day according to the ECM ensembles, with the median being 11C (edited as I was looking at the 9th rather than day 10 initially).