Far from toasty but it might feel warm in a relative sense. 13C, light winds and sunny intervals would be heavenly compared to the typical wet & blustery 7C that dominated our awful winter. Looks like spring is going to get into full swing which couldn't be more different to this time last year.

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014030400/UW144-21.GIF?04-08

Perhaps a northerly can spring up out of nowhere. Would be nice to get a proper frost before its too late. But it looks like the end of the rain for the foreseable down here anyway

I'm perfectly happy with 10-14*C by day and low single digits by night in the first half of March - that's around the long term average or just above, and can be very pleasant in sunshine and light winds.

...hence light winds and sunshine are the details I'm now concerning myself with;

We're currently seeing a strong signal for high pressure to park right over the UK or just to the east. Both of these locations favour reasonable temperatures, and the latter can be decent for sushine too depending on the air source

We don't want an air source from the east, as that interacts with the North Sea to produce low cloud that tends to get well   inland at this time of year. So a SE or S flow is preferrable.

Thankfully that's what the models are firming up on for days 5-6, but beyond that, GFS shows more of an easterly flow while ECM shows more of a SE'rly - so there's the possibility for a less than ideal setup to evolve there, but we still have a strong player voting againt that, as does GEM.

What about the winds? If the Atlantic pushes too close, we'll have a breezy spell for days 5-6, otherwise light winds look to prevail. Trouble is, the models have been known in past years to place high pressure too far south in the mid-long range, then correcting it a little way north, resulting in breezier conditions for the south at least - something to keep an eye on.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/2012/archivesnh-2012-3-14-12-0.png

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014030400/ECH1-240.GIF?04-12

For those who've wondered, yes it is looking rather similar to how 2012 did during the same month.

Having said that , the Pacific Ridge is some way further east this year, and that can be an important player for the UK. We also have more of a positive PDO signal and signs of a strong El Nino as opposed to the very weak affair in 2012 that never really got going.

I really hope we don't have a repeat of 2012 :-/

Mildness is required from the charts.. But   not clear nights.   Blossom will be out soon ..

Given the time of year, that is one very warm high. In general, TT1000-500 do not get so far north on such a widespread basis until the middle of May. Models might be overdoing the warm advection, but it gives an indication that some places may see top temps in the mid to high teens during the next couple of weeks.

Should give a chance for rivers to discharge, but with the airflow generally southwesterly, RH's expected to be high for early Spring, so the real drying out process is likely to be painfully slow.

Lovely spring charts and at least very much welcome prolonged dry weather to allow flooded areas to recover.

Lovely spring charts and at least very much welcome prolonged dry weather to allow flooded areas to recover.

Originally Posted by: idj20 

Why, hello there, Jiries! Now we know spring has arrived when you have been spurred out of hibernation in your shed.    

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

Spring is my favourite weather among summer and with car boot sales to start soon this prolonged dry weather are much welcome to dry out the muddy areas properly.   22C in the shed last week and I felt very happy to see it and garden need a lot of work to do which can start after it dried out proplerly. 

Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

Here Come's High Pressure

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

After a bit of a wobble yesterday, looks like we're back on track with high pressure taking over next week.

Enjoy.

Absolutely. Looks great

Lovely spring charts and at least very much welcome prolonged dry weather to allow flooded areas to recover.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

Why, hello there, Jiries! Now we know spring has arrived when you have been spurred out of hibernation in your shed.    

Originally Posted by: idj20 

Spring is my favourite weather among summer and with car boot sales to start soon this prolonged dry weather are much welcome to dry out the muddy areas properly.   22C in the shed last week and I felt very happy to see it and garden need a lot of work to do which can start after it dried out proplerly. 

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

 Sounds good to me. I think I'll get back into this boot fair thing as I've let that slide by me last year (but no more books as my hobby room is filled out to the max with them!).

It goes without saying we deserve this after what has been a very long, tiring and difficult winter (autumn).

Darren Bett bbc weather going for 18c sunday and next week so we'll have to wait and see.

See Them charts t384   Definitely Spring weather for the Vernal Equinox. 

Some excellent stuff on GFS and if the high pressure builds in that position then some really great sunny days should result - winds should be south of east which is quite critical for many of us.

Anyway - more to come though in the meantime.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html