The Weather Outlook

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nsrobins
27 February 2014 22:50:00

Despite (or in spite) of the minging winter this year, a decent couple of  CuNb today with nice tops, anvils and hail shafts has got me looking forward to late March and April convection.
Spring has arrived - good riddance winter.
Roll on two.


Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

nsrobins
28 February 2014 07:07:21

Both ECM and GFS manage to get the high in and raise it to mid-latitude to our east by late next week.
The quiet, settled and springlike conditions this would bring would be most welcome by most people.
OP an outlier though again so low confidence.


Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Gooner
28 February 2014 07:42:04

Both ECM and GFS manage to get the high in and raise it to mid-latitude to our east by late next week.
The quiet, settled and springlike conditions this would bring would be most welcome by most people.
OP an outlier though again so low confidence.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850London0.png

Indeed Neil, most going for a return to a cooler spell


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Andy Woodcock
28 February 2014 08:15:45
Next week end could be quite nice in the south with a mild southerly feed.

Despite the rain spring is well advanced this year with my winter hanging basket looking great, I reckon my garden looks more colourful now than it did in late April last year!

Andy


Andy Woodcock

Penrith

Cumbria

Altitude 535 feet

"Why are the British so worried about climate change? Any change to their climate can only be an improvement" John Daley 2001

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
28 February 2014 08:40:06

Next week end could be quite nice in the south with a mild southerly feed. Despite the rain spring is well advanced this year with my winter hanging basket looking great, I reckon my garden looks more colourful now than it did in late April last year! Andy

Originally Posted by: Andy Woodcock 

Soil temps (which is what counts for plants) reported 2C above normal in the S of England


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

Girthmeister
28 February 2014 08:42:19

Both ECM and GFS manage to get the high in and raise it to mid-latitude to our east by late next week.
The quiet, settled and springlike conditions this would bring would be most welcome by most people.
OP an outlier though again so low confidence.

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850London0.png

Indeed Neil, most going for a return to a cooler spell

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

Later in the run, the control and OP suggest the most settled, warm and dry output since about early November for the South. Fingers crossed!

Gooner
28 February 2014 09:25:06

Both ECM and GFS manage to get the high in and raise it to mid-latitude to our east by late next week.
The quiet, settled and springlike conditions this would bring would be most welcome by most people.
OP an outlier though again so low confidence.

Originally Posted by: Girthmeister 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850London0.png

Indeed Neil, most going for a return to a cooler spell

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Later in the run, the control and OP suggest the most settled, warm and dry output since about early November for the South. Fingers crossed!

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

with little support , to be honest a cooler return has been offered on several sets of ENS


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



The Beast from the East
28 February 2014 10:16:10

06z very similar. Spring arrives on thursday

 


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

JACKO4EVER
28 February 2014 12:27:55

06z very similar. Spring arrives on thursday

 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

Not before time IMO.

The sooner we end this rain sodden storm lashed apology for a winter the better.

Gavin P
28 February 2014 12:36:47

Hi all,

Here's my take on the latest developments with todays video update;

A Taste Of Spring On The Way + JMA Friday;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

May be a slow process but looks as though next week should see some big improvements. Fingers crossed.


Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

Gooner
28 February 2014 12:54:33

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850London0.png

6TH - 11TH We have some warmer temps, looks like a cool off after that


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



JoeShmoe99
28 February 2014 15:34:53

06z very similar. Spring arrives on thursday

 

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 

Not before time IMO.

The sooner we end this rain sodden storm lashed apology for a winter the better.

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2041.gif

The Beast from the East
28 February 2014 16:02:45

Azores pushing in even faster now on the 12zs. Get the BBQs out


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

The Beast from the East
28 February 2014 16:04:33

but before that some very heavy rain on Sunday night.

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014022812/UW60-594.GIF?28-16

A final twist of the knife to flood hit areas before this beast of winter dies a death

 


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

doctormog
28 February 2014 16:28:47

but before that some very heavy rain on Sunday night.

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014022812/UW60-594.GIF?28-16 

A final twist of the knife to flood hit areas before this beast of winter dies a death

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

The latter part of next week is looking increasingly Foehntastic on the GFS output 😁. Perhaps it is another outlier but that's how these things often start.

It feels even better as today has been a gloriously sunny and springlike day here (albeit not overly warm even if it felt pleasant).

If we can't have snow can we have more of this please? [sn_cool]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1741.gif 


Charmhills
28 February 2014 16:46:55

Hi all,

Here's my take on the latest developments with todays video update;

A Taste Of Spring On The Way + JMA Friday;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

May be a slow process but looks as though next week should see some big improvements. Fingers crossed.

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

Could be quite a nice spell of weather coming up by the end of next week.


Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.

Gooner
28 February 2014 17:07:56

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014022812/gfsnh-0-384.png?12

This is much more like it


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Gooner
28 February 2014 17:48:56

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-0-1-300.png?12

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-0-1-324.png?12

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-0-1-348.png?12

Control a little more adventurous with snow in places

 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



IanK
28 February 2014 18:18:31

Very strong signal from the 12z ensembles for warming next week:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Gooner
28 February 2014 18:24:26

Very strong signal from the 12z ensembles for warming next week:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Originally Posted by: IanK 

Certainly consistent in the 5 day window as well 6th -11th


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Ally Pally Snowman
28 February 2014 18:55:34
Next week looking potentially warm maybe 18c or 19c possible?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.html 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.html 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Hungry Tiger
28 February 2014 20:12:04


Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



llamedos
28 February 2014 20:18:07

Very strong signal from the 12z ensembles for warming next week:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Certainly consistent in the 5 day window as well 6th -11th

Originally Posted by: IanK 

In March I guess that would be called a warm "snap" then


"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator

Stormchaser
28 February 2014 22:32:56

Phew... despite a highly inconvenient spell of ill health, following an unbelievably busy run of weeks in Reading, I've finally submitted an application for the position of Trainee Meteorologist at the Met Office 

 

Now I can finally cast an eye across the models, and what I see is a strong trend for increasingly dry conditions, which I'll take no matter what the temperatures are!

As it is, the support for a notable spell (or 'snap'... I feel like 'waft' would be more appropriate ) of daytime warmth is strong now, with ECM increasingly joining in with the idea over the past few runs. The nights could be quite chilly though, in low single figures - classic early spring conditions

 

GFS then shows major blocking across the Arctic in late-FI, the kind which would bring sustained unseasnably cold conditions, although it would take something insane to match March 2013 considering the higher soil and sea temperatures we have now compared to the end of February 2013.

Regardless, the evolution stems from a greatly reduced presence of troughing to our NW by day 10, which is not supported by ECM or GEM, so no need to worry too much at this stage.

In fact, GEM is at the other end of the scale, with the warmest flow concievable - the night temperatures could be near or above average if it verifies:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/archives/2014022812/gem-0-240.png


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

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2025's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 32.0°C 12th Aug | T-Min: -5.4°C 4th Jan | Wettest Day: 31.8 mm 18th Dec | Ice Days: None

Keep Calm and Forecast On

AIMSIR
01 March 2014 00:07:37

Phew... despite a highly inconvenient spell of ill health, following an unbelievably busy run of weeks in Reading, I've finally submitted an application for the position of Trainee Meteorologist at the Met Office 

 

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

Wish you the Best of luck Stormchaser..

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