As many have mentioned, we're heading into a period of potentially stormy weather.  I hesitate to use the word 'dangerous' but it certainly looks as if there are twin threats from potential flooding and very strong winds in the next week - and possibly beyond.

So, what's coming up?

Today:

A band of strong winds and heavy rain crossing west to east. The period between 6pm and midnight covers the worst period for the wind:

Wind gusts:

6pm: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013121800/18-289UK.GIF?18-0

9pm: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013121800/21-289UK.GIF?18-0

Midnight: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013121800/24-289UK.GIF?18-0

NW Scotland gets hit in the early hours as the system pulls away

Rain:

6pm: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013121800/18-574UK.GIF?18-0

9pm: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013121800/21-574UK.GIF?18-0

Midnight: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013121800/24-574UK.GIF?18-0

This mornings NAE 06z shows it well: http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/12/18/basis06/ukuk/prec/13121900_1806.gif

A brief respite until Friday - although it remains windy for the north-west

Friday:

The next band of wind and rain moves across, on a more WNW-ESE trajectory. Similar timing, at the moment:

Wind gusts:

6pm: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013121800/66-289UK.GIF?18-0

9pm: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013121800/69-289UK.GIF?18-0

Midnight: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013121800/72-289UK.GIF?18-0

Not as bad as today's winds for much of the southern half of England, away from the South-West and eastern coastal areas

Rainfall:

6pm: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013121800/66-574UK.GIF?18-0

9pm: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013121800/69-574UK.GIF?18-0

Midnight: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013121800/72-574UK.GIF?18-0

Not as heavy but the frontal trough stalls and moves back north:

6am Sat: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013121800/78-574UK.GIF?18-0

9am Sat: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013121800/81-574UK.GIF?18-0

Cumulative totals by this point: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013121800/81-777UK.GIF?18-0

A small disturbance runs across the north of England and the Borders on Saturday evening bringing heavy rain and the threat of snow as it passes through:

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013121800/90-574UK.GIF?18-0

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013121800/96-574UK.GIF?18-0

Monday 23rd:

The next system races in:

Winds still very strong for the NW but not as bad elsewhere - gusts:

Midnight: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013121800/120-289UK.GIF?18-0

6am: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013121800/126-289UK.GIF?18-0

Noon: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013121800/132-289UK.GIF?18-0

Rain:

Midnight: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013121800/120-574UK.GIF?18-0

6am: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013121800/126-574UK.GIF?18-0

Noon: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013121800/132-574UK.GIF?18-0

6pm: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013121800/138-574UK.GIF?18-0

Midnight: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013121800/144-574UK.GIF?18-0

Xmas Eve:

Hardly has the Monday storm cleared and the next arrives

Wind gusts:

6am: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013121800/150-289UK.GIF?18-0

Noon: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013121800/156-289UK.GIF?18-0

6pm: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013121800/162-289UK.GIF?18-0

Gusts over 100mph for a swathe of western and northern Scotland

Heavy rain and snow for some:

6am: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013121800/150-574UK.GIF?18-0

Noon: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013121800/156-574UK.GIF?18-0

Finally, cumulative rainfall totals by the end of Xmas Day:

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013121800/192-777UK.GIF?18-0

Shame snow not included for here otherwise it would be extremely brilliant to see snow storms over Xmas period for a change.  I will keep myself busy on something else while this storm wheeze past.  Would be bad for some that their properties get damaged at wrong time in Xmas time. 

 It's already been a very stormy run of weather up here over the past two weeks. By my calculation tonights storm will be storm number 5 with winds over 70mph in the last 2 weeks. 

And as your excellent post points out, very unstable Atlantic driven systems look to be the order for the next week or so...

Good detail.

And just out of range, the potential system for Boxing Day could be the worst of the lot.

Roll on Scottish independence....

I should have said "another period" but I wasn't trying to ignore what has been happening for the last week or so, since the Euro High was shoved aside.

I did make a point of including north of the Border in my analysis because I would hate to be accused on NIMBY-ism....

Gandalf, your reports are always excellent. I was just being tongue in cheek and silly earlier 

Amber gale warning in force for us tonight....

Keep up the great work folks.

Nasty Xmas Storm

This is rather familiar...

October 30th 2000 Storm

Great information about the storm (scroll down for charts and discussion).

...which ECM also resembles at almost the same timeframe:

Menacing ECM chart

The GFS version has 110kph gusts across the far southeast overnight into Boxing Day:

Yikes

...which is about 68mph. To be honest I'm surprised they're that low!

Probably a slight displacement of the jet-streak, or it could be the fact that Boxing Day is still out in FI and lower resolution.

Damage to Kent Station, Cork Ireland in last 30 mins due to a squall.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bbxvc_tCIAEBKsz.jpg:large

Look at that frigid air to the west of us out in the Atlantic - the -10 850 reaching a latitude as far south as Spain.

It's jolly frsutrating to say the least! A humungous snow storm for Xmas day would be just the nuts, pity that's not going to happen away from the Scottish mountains..

250mb jet for Xmas night from the experimental FIM:

http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim_jet/2013121800/europe/wind_250_f192.png

You can see the problem . . .

SW Trains tweeting a tree down blocking the line at Hinton Admiral (nr Bournemouth) already. Always seems to get clobbered by falling trees, flooding etc that station!

Edit: and another... 

South West Trains ‏@SW_Trains  29m

18:09 London Waterloo to Guildford via Epsom has hit a tree near Bookham. Crew are checking the train now.

Oh and another

South West Trains ‏@SW_Trains  44m

17:46 Exeter to #Axminster service has stuck a tree. Staff are checking the train now.

Sounds like they're on a branch line....

BBC reporting 2500 homes in Cumbria / Lancashire without power, 900 in Wales and 1000 in NI. Storm damage.

85mph gusts in Plymouth today

Peak gust 85.2mph a few minutes ago. Second anemometer peak gust 81mph. Stormy.

Pressure is very low, 954.8hPa and falling rapidly  Started at 991hPa at midnight, quite a drop.

Portree lifeboat station recorded 77.8mph 30 minutes ago.

We're still on track for a succession of stormy periods, based on the 18z

The one on Monday looks to be worse than previously shown. Here are the predicted wind gusts:

Midnight: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013121818/102-289UK.GIF?18-18

6am: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013121818/108-289UK.GIF?18-18

Noon: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013121818/114-289UK.GIF?18-18

6pm: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013121818/120-289UK.GIF?18-18

Midnight: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013121818/126-289UK.GIF?18-18

Then as before for northern Scotland

6am Xmas Eve: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013121818/132-289UK.GIF?18-18

Noon: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013121818/138-289UK.GIF?18-18

There's also a lot of rain and snow in the system. For example, the Xmas Eve 6am chart shows a lot of snow for Wales and northern England and Scotland:

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013121818/132-574UK.GIF?18-18

Then the south gets hit - and to a lesser extent the north - on Boxing Day:

6am: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013121818/180-289UK.GIF?18-18

Noon: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013121818/186-289UK.GIF?18-18

As the winds swing NW, eastern coastal counties could be hammered:

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013121818/192-289UK.GIF?18-18

Jeezo....89.7mph and climbing.....

98.5mph from Portree RNLI lifeboat station.

Shulista, Isle of Skye, Lat: N57:41:20 (57.688757) Lon: W6:19:06 (-6.318203), 40m ASL
Weather readings @ 02:04 on 19-12-2013
======================================================

Relative Pressure: 958.1 hPa & rising slowly

Wind (Now): 29.9 m/s (66.9 mph) Force 11, Violent Storm
Gust (Now): 39.8 m/s (89.0 mph)
Wind (Ave today): 19.3 m/s (43.2 mph)
Gust (Max today): 40.1 m/s (89.7 mph) @ 01:53
Wind Direction: - - °

Temp (Now): 6.1°C
Temp (Avg today): 7.3 °C
Temp (Max today): @ 
Temp (Min today): 6.1 °C @ 02:04
Windchill: -2.0°C
Apparent Temp: -16.3°C
Dew Point: 3.3°C
Relative Humidity: 82%

Rainfall (hour): 0.3 mm
Rainfall (today): 0.3 mm
Rainfall (month): 102.9 mm
Rain Days: 18

Ever seen the windpeed show Force 12 Hurricane? Gusts getting on for 100mph now. No power cuts though  Pressure bottomed at a very low 952.9hPa at 00:17.

Shulista, Isle of Skye, Lat: N57:41:20 (57.688757) Lon: W6:19:06 (-6.318203), 40m ASL
Weather readings @ 02:12 on 19-12-2013
======================================================

Relative Pressure: 958.2 hPa & rising

Wind (Now): 33.3 m/s (74.5 mph) Force 12, Hurricane
Gust (Now): 43.2 m/s (96.6 mph)
Wind (Ave today): 23.3 m/s (52.0 mph)
Gust (Max today): 43.2 m/s (96.6 mph) @ 02:12
Wind Direction: SW - 225.0°

Temp (Now): 5.9°C
Temp (Avg today): 7.2 °C
Temp (Max today): @ 
Temp (Min today): 5.8 °C @ 02:11
Windchill: -2.6°C
Apparent Temp: -18.9°C
Dew Point: 3.2°C
Relative Humidity: 83%

Rainfall (hour): 0.3 mm
Rainfall (today): 0.6 mm
Rainfall (month): 103.2 mm
Rain Days: 18

This system looks to have peaked. High gust has been 98.9mph at 02:26 which is a very wild storm. Pressure was very low indeed.

Glad you survived intact, Martyn. Was never more than a very blustery evening over here with gusts in the 60-70mph range.