I'm afraid this is, so far, a classic 'jam tomorrow' mild winter. What will the rest of the winter bring? Beyond T144 I've little idea - and I'm not sure anyone knows much better than that, stratosphere watch or not..
None of us can that be sure, no.
However we can look at factors in the stratosphere that have prevailed for some time and that have directly had an influence on our unseasonal winter so far, but are now changing and evolving in a quite different direction. And from those changes, we can make suggestions and form opinions as to what the conequences of those changes might be and where it may all lead.
There have been 'jam tomorrow' winters. Some of those have delivered the fruit though, and become classic British winters in the sense of meeting the old folklore saying of 'as the days grow longer, the cold gets stronger' There are ingredients in place, as discussed already, that can meet that criteria. However we wait to see if the British Isles as a small part of the NH that these changes will influence, can be a direct beneficiary (if you like cold weather) to those changes
An SSW would make the case easier to judge. We have been close to one, and one may well still occur yet in view of the trend. However, even if one doesn't occur the steady pressure exerted as described above by a log jam of warm anomalies at the top of the stratosphere has to go somewhere at some stage. Thus the current indications of cooling and warming ebbing and flowing as described above is a good way to get things moving. A bit like a digestive system where food on food often, um, makes nature take her course further down
Edited by user
16 January 2012 14:34:42
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