That would be very intersting Matt.
Of course people have to realise that this is an ongoing forcast as new trends appear.
So it would be interesting to see it evolve.

With the pattern we're in now and look to be during the next fortnight or so, we only need the jet stream to weaken and split and we're in for some interesting weather conditions that could deliver some cold conditions to the UK. Of course, the blocks need to behave kindly toward us for anything particularly impressive to occur.

Thinking about ice cover in the Arctic again; this post in the comments of a wunderground blog caught my eye:

"Going into winter this year it [the Arctic sea ice cover] is near[ly the] opposite of last year with some barely above average sea ice on both sides of Greenland with the rest of the circle being below average, the slowest to refreeze being around Russia. Last year both sides of Greenland were way below average while near Russia was near or barely above average."

Can anyone confirm or disprove this statement and does anyone have any thoughts on what this could mean - if anything much - regarding the winter patterns this time around?

I think the effect of arctic sea ice on winter weather is less than the influence of the sun's magnetic field. I have posted on this subject previously when it was claimed that [lack of] arctic sea ice was a major driver of last December's extreme synoptic pattern. It is probable that sea ice extent and location have some effect, but the data I have looked at for magnetic field strength shows a far better correlation with winter blocking than arctic sea ice. Weak magnetic field = more blocking.

Have a look at this paper if you have not already seen it. The list of references is extensive and useful for further research on the subject.

http://eprints.ifm-geomar.de/8738/1/2009JD013568-pip.pdf

Time for the end-of-October update on this:

Probability for temperature anomalies in central England for winter 2011/12

Above average: 37%

Below average: 63%

Monthly probabilities of temperature anomalies (deviation from long-term average)

Dec: Below average - 70%

Jan: Below average - 64%

Feb: No clear signal

To be updated again at the end of November

Just to add to Justins below average comments.
I notice that Weatheronline have issued another seasonal update this morning.
Bottom line appears to be that they are very much in the cold camp from Dec onwards.

Possibly milder Christmas

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?MENU=Seasonal Outlook

Simon and Bob are going for cold and wintry weather for both December and January.

Beat me to it, mainly cold with a chance of something milder for christmas before turning cold again, winter may arrive on time this year and not November like last year.

That sounds like a very wintry pattern.

Thanks very much, that is a very useful resource

I must try not to let the subject dominate over my knowledge that is relevant to my study areas at the moment, which alas do not include meteorology

On topic - there is a growing feeling that a change should be upon us within the next few weeks. The models have been showing a very powerful block developing to our east and northeast and it looks like it wants to venture eastward some day next month...

Well eastwards would work to, just means a very long way eastwards.

For what it's worth James Madden has updated his winter forecast and apperently there will be heavy snow as early as next month, just a shame the met office doesn't agree with him.

Meteorological winter 2011/12

December 2011

Below average temperatures and heavy snowfall is likely across many parts of the UK.

January 2012

Below average temperatures and heavy snowfall is likely across many parts of the UK

February 2012

Below average temperatures and moderate to heavy snowfall is likely across parts of the UK

I have fairly high confidence at this stage, that we will experience a much more prolonged period of increased jet-stream blocking in comparison to last year. This will bring frequent and widespread heavy snowfalls during November to January across many parts of the UK and Ireland, with below-average temperatures for the meteorological winter of 2011/12 as a whole. Of course there will be some moderation at times with geographical variations, but the overall theme for this winter will be very cold and snowy across many parts of the UK and Ireland. This is a logical conclusion based on the parameters I consider within my forecasts, any snowfall or temperature records broken within this defined time frame (November to February) or for the winter as a whole will be posted accordingly.

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

And the best bit is still to come

October Snowfall

I stated on the 2nd September 2011 update

“As we head towards winter, I expect to see the first signs of some moderate to heavy snowfalls as early as October or November in certain parts of the UK. In terms of the meteorological winter, I expect December, January, and February to experience below average temperatures, with the heaviest snowfalls occurring within the time frame of November to January across many parts of the UK.”

October 2011 has seen some moderate to heavy snowfall in CERTAIN parts of the UK. The first snow of the season came in early October in upland Scotland, and although snow is certainly not unusual in these parts of the UK during October, this is why I included this within my autumn forecast/winter update. Further heavier falls of snow and drifts was also recorded later on within the month in Scotland, with the earliest snowfall in almost 50 years in Co Derry, Northern Ireland.

Well i'm sorry but even i could have said that it's well know that the Scottish Mountains begin to see snow in October

Sorry about my ignorance but what is proved right about the October snowfall when we started this month with 29C in some areas of the SE and now ending it with 18C!? It would be interesting to see what the October stats are like!? Perhaps the third warmest on record!?

Errr not far off it.
Dont quote me,,,,,,,
but colder than average with snow to southern UK, for 1st time in long time.
In my mind, put your hands up, dont use the well it snowed in Scotland balony.
Sorry his forcast was for doom for Oct, not the warmest OCT on record, sorry his "guess" for OCT was in my mind 100% wrong.

Totally agree. If you're going to issue an LRF then there should be no ambiguity. Despite all the media hype quoting his forecasts I didn't hear James at any time clarify that it was only hilltops in Scotland (or Northern Ireland) and, let's face it, he had plenty of time and plenty of previous updates to do so. I would classify the forecast for October as a bust based on what he SAID; not intended to say!

Meanwhile, just saw this little snippet from Piers' website where he mentions some highlights of his next forecasting period...."This includes warning of an EXTREME COLD PERIOD from ~27 Nov to ~28 Dec in Britain & West Europe."

You also cannot dismiss one forecast as wrong (for November) based on another forecast - now that IS daft!

Who's dismissing his November forecasts. Doc? I have not dismissed it and I'll await its final outcome with interest. I referred to his October prediction which I still consider a bust despite his "defence". 

On Sept 2 he did say:

"As we head towards winter, I expect to see the first signs of some moderate to heavy snowfalls as early as October or November in certain parts of the UK."

Given James had the Daily Express front page headline on his website, post this prediction, my point was also the fact he didn't try to correct or clarify any of the page's interpretation, or insinuation, that October snow would be more than just hilltop?

,

dont 'beat around the bush' on Madden. it was his decision to sensationalise his thoughts and he 'lives/dies' by it. instead of admitting his thoughts for october were about as far wrong as they could be, he indulges in a 'piers' type justification by stating it was cold in next doors freezer !! bo**ocks - thats what i say. have the guts to admit you are wrong and we can forgive you. then we can look at the rest of the forecast. trying (lying) to justify a bust beginning means i cant be bothered to even look at his updates. 

Re. The snow forecast, it does say October or November so it could technically still be correct with November snow even if the forecaster's insinuation was that it might happen in October.

Come on Doc, lol!! always use the "quote text"

Well said, in fact very well said.
My point is not that,  he/they/whoever was wrong just dont bulltulipus.