http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/temperature/neeur_30temp.shtml 

It does look like returning to a bit above in the coming days though.

Re. Northerlies, they can wait till next month when they are more likely to bring snow.

What about Accu Weather's forecast for this years winter in the UK:

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/news-story.asp?partner=accuweather&article=0

The fact that there will be NO snow for Wales or southern England is beyond me - when did Wales or southern England last have a snowless year? He does not even mention frost under the high pressure or freezing fog, he talks about warm and dry air!???

I suppose if he does expect the coldest of the winter to occur in Autum (Nov) then we would be seeing some colder weather within the next few weeks time or month, but there is little sign of that, even having looked at the GFS runs, it looks milder.

Is this winter going to be a total write off?

'High pressure systems typically push in dry and warmer air that brings in good weather. Temperatures will be above average'

I have to take this to task. That statement may be true in Summer but a long period of high-pressure dominated weather in mid winter is much more likely to bring low temperatures through stagnant inversions.
If the high is centred over the north UK the south may pull in a cold CAA feed.

Very bold forecast from Accuweather there - as always, it's a likely to be right or as wrong as any other LRF.

I can only assume he's thinking high pressure to our West or South West, feeding in mild weather over the top - and normally a lot of dull cloud too. SSTs might support this forecast at the moment unfortunately, but it's only one variable.

He's wrong though to make such a general statement regarding anticyclonic weather though!

It's a bold prediciton but I have to take my hat off to anyone that comes out with a forecast so early before the majority. It'll either be fairly near or it'll be another Meto LRF (BBQ)

Like I say fair play to Mr Reppert for sharing his throughts and if anyone strongly agrees or disagrees width the forecast at this present time it would be good to hear why

The winter CFS probability chart from December to February has gone from blue to about 35% above normal for some.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbSea.gif

Though I can't see Wales or southern England been snowless it's not impossible but very unlikely when you think how much high ground there is down there, Snowdonia and Dartmoor are two prone areas.

What a difference a day makes...I even listened to Net Weathers forecast too which says something different! In other words no one has a clue!

If it doesn't snow here until 1st Jan then 2011 will have been a snowless year

Due to the very dry January I'm guessing.

Anyone seen the video on netweather?

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=winter-thoughts-2011;sess=

Only time will tell I guess.

How people can predict the 'finer details' of the weather, so far in advance, is beyond me.

If you want my LRF (And I'm no pro with the weather) - Its going to be colder than summer with snow possible anywhere during the months of Dec Jan & Feb.

Simple....

You've given *****Corbyn an idea now.

Well someone needs to!

Actually, January was quite a wet month here - 88% of average and the 2nd highest monthly total this year.

But yes, whenever it was cold enough for snow it was dry.

With October turning into an 'extreme' month (albeit IMO a very boring one) it's clear that something could be cooking up at the moment. If we were getting months of average weather that would be much less encouraging for cold weather fans IMO. Dec 2010, Apr 2011, Oct 2011? One in four chance at the moment of hitting an extreme month? Those odds must be significantly higher than usual.

Is that your first major cold hint you've given there...  

It's certainly been a year of unusual weather, Started off with Winter ending warm, Spring was the hottest In however many years, Summer failed to arrive, and then September ends with record-breaking temperatures and October also broke records.

What can winter 2011/2012 deliver? More of the same or severe cold? Only time will tell.

I remember a while back I asked if our weather patterns have changed and this year they seem to have with every season delivering something which it shouldn't.

Nah, but January's CET could be over 12c .......

Or -12c ..... 

I'd certainly go along with that. 

Time of course will tell.

Reposted from the ENSO thread because this does have some significance on the prospects fro winter;

CFS is rapidly backtracking on its mega La Nina forecast.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/nino34SSTMon.gif

In a week the ensemble mean has gone from dropping off the chart early in 2012 to bottoming out at -2.5. But most of the more recent member go for a peak of between -1.5 and -2.

I think it will continue to backtrack further over the next few weeks and the minimum will finish up somewhere around -1.

One interesting thing I'm noticing on the SST anomaly maps in the last couple of days is some warmer water just off the coast of Peru;

http://www.weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2011/anomnight.10.27.2011.gif

Wonder if that could actually be the first signs of some ENSO warming into early 2012? Keeping in mind the Beijing model this month appeared to be forecasting an El Nino this winter. That seems outlandish, but perhaps it has picked up on some warming taking place through the winter?