The Weather Outlook

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Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
13 November 2026 14:31:36
Feels like this is likely enough to happen to start this one off.

For Monday night/Tuesday one little tip you can do with the 850s is look and see if the temperature actually *cools* just ahead of the front. If you see this happening it shows evap cooling is quite strong and the front is coherent 

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

+2
Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
13 November 2026 14:38:53
Also risk of snow on Sunday's system too, a much rarer setup than Tuesday's usual 'warm/occluded into cold air' thing. Sunday is quite a complicated LP with a sting jet like thing on its back edge introducing some unusually dry/cold air on the back edge. Not an easy one to forecast at all. I'd be more confident about Tuesday at this stage vis a vis distribution. For those of us in the east perhaps Sunday into Monday is a better bet.

If Sunday produces some unexpected snowcover then it could cool things down a little in time for tuesday's system. These fractions of degrees make all the difference.

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

+1
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
13 November 2026 22:28:43
While various charts on the other forum suggest widespread upland snow for both Sunday and Tuesday, the BBC is downplaying it, suggesting only the highest elevations will get much snow, mostly on Sunday - and the GFS snow row takes a middle position - just illustrates the the difficulty of forecasting borderline British snow when, at this season, a front arrives from the west. All sources seem to agree that it will thaw quite quickly after Tuesday except for the highest peaks.
I can calculate the movements of stars, but not the madness of men - Isaac Newton

Chichester 12m asl

+1

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