The Weather Outlook

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johncs2016
01 September 2026 06:07:00
Now that we have just entered into the start of yet another brand new season, it is time for a brand new thread to cover this autumn.

For now, the summer thread will remain open to allow members to post their final statistics for the summer which has just passed, and give their final thoughts on what happened during the summer in terms of our weather.

Other than that though, this is now the thread to be used going for when it comes to issues regarding what is happening this autumn. As usual, this can be used as a moaning or gloating thread but if you're not that way inclined, you can also just give a general discussion on what's happening during this autumn which can also include the various statistics for this autumn.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

MRazzell
07 September 2026 07:56:48
I do wonder if we'll see maximum temperature records broken throughout this autumn and coming winter. The past 15 years has seen Nov, Dec, Jan & Feb max temp records all fall, will 2026 continue to deliver? Its entirely plausible we could see +20c at any time. September still looking mild and - for the time of year - dry, for the SE on the GFS.
Far north of East Sussex. +150m asl.
Saint Snow
23 September 2026 15:00:50
Can't remember the last time we had a high sat over the UK for a week or two in late Sept/early Oct.

One of the most beautiful weather occurences, IMO, producing morning mists, afternoons of stunning light to display the changes leaves, and serene calm.


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Tim A
24 September 2026 06:57:26
September here has been like a summer month,  but with pretty average September synoptics, the weather itself may have been mediocre, but just effortlessly warm in between the bands of showers and rain.   
Tim

NW Leeds

187m asl

 My PWS 

Saint Snow
24 September 2026 08:37:43

September here has been like a summer month,  but with pretty average September synoptics, the weather itself may have been mediocre, but just effortlessly warm in between the bands of showers and rain.   

Originally Posted by: Tim A 

Similar.


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Saint Snow
18 October 2026 19:34:28
What looked, a few days ago, like a spell of nice settled weather has turned into teo days of nice then a return to crap and wet.

I despise this country's weather.


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Jiries
19 October 2026 06:38:23
Got a massive surprise to see so wet this morning? Seem this plus 1030mb are rotten one that brought so much rain and clouds so glad the models really drop this prolonged HP which could suffer weeks of rain and dull weather.  Glad the cool zonality will bring much nicer weather less rain due to fast moving fronts and more sunshine.  
Jiries
19 October 2026 06:46:49

What looked, a few days ago, like a spell of nice settled weather has turned into teo days of nice then a return to crap and wet.

I despise this country's weather.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

This HP was nasty one brought in more cloudy weather and very wet weather than recent unsettled weather that delivered less rain and more sunshine.  ☀️ Last good sunshine was Friday before this horrible HP move.  If the models didn’t drop this we will suffer lot of stationary rain and dull weather.  

doctormog
19 October 2026 07:09:38

This HP was nasty one brought in more cloudy weather and very wet weather than recent unsettled weather that delivered less rain and more sunshine.  ☀️ Last good sunshine was Friday before this horrible HP move.  If the models didn’t drop this we will suffer lot of stationary rain and dull weather.  

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

The wet weather for southern parts was associated with the fronts from the low pressure to the south. The last few days have been glorious for many parts away from that low pressure system. Unfortunately the outlook is looking much more unsettled, and potentially stormy by Friday.


Jiries
19 October 2026 07:24:47

The wet weather for southern parts was associated with the fronts from the low pressure to the south. The last few days have been glorious for many parts away from that low pressure system. Unfortunately the outlook is looking much more unsettled, and potentially stormy by Friday.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

I don't see any LP as i am under the 1030mb HP this morning so it was the HP that caused problem with rain and clouds.  The LP I see are in Greenland between South Russia and N Turkey.  Last glorious weather was on Friday from exiting LP.  Very poor forecasts for a nice sunny weekend here but fortunately this rotten HP moving away today so I see more sun amounts this week.   Thank you models for dropping this out which would potential disaster dull, very wet and lasting for weeks.

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=0&time=0&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 

doctormog
19 October 2026 07:49:19

I don't see any LP as i am under the 1030mb HP this morning so it was the HP that caused problem with rain and clouds.  The LP I see are in Greenland between South Russia and N Turkey.  Last glorious weather was on Friday from exiting LP.  Very poor forecasts for a nice sunny weekend here but fortunately this rotten HP moving away today so I see more sun amounts this week.   Thank you models for dropping this out which would potential disaster dull, very wet and lasting for weeks.

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=0&time=0&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

Here you go, https://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax0.gif?19-6  As I said it’s to the south (over France) and you can see its associated fronts.


Jiries
19 October 2026 11:08:34

Here you go, https://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax0.gif?19-6  As I said it’s to the south (over France) and you can see its associated fronts.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Those fax are the worst nasty charts to view always infected with fronts,  It the HP that created the fronts and disguised as LP 1022mb when should be dry, sunny and settled.  Get lost HP and good riddance and their associated fronts.  Imagine if the models didn't drop this 2 weeks HP fest it would be wet/dull 24/7 non-stop.   I see many posters other side was disappointed with the HP charts being removed but me massive relief.

Saint Snow
21 October 2026 14:24:08
On the back of model output and forecasts last Friday - which universally showed yesterday being 100% dry and mostly sunny in north-east Staffordshire - I booked us our annual day our at the Alton Towers Scarefest. 

The subsequent days saw the forecast worsen and worsen until, by Monday evening, almost all were showing rain all day. Arpege and, to a lesser extent, GFS, were hinting that the main forcus of the rain would be further west, with Alton Towers on the eastern edge.

We even pondered cancelling it and writing off the price of the tickets, but we ended up going. I packed ponchos, we took 2 big brollies, and we set off later than usual.

Very glad we did. Walked into the park just after half-12 with no rain falling. Stayed broadly that way for a couple of hours or so (the odd brief, occasional very light drizzle). following the radar, the heaviest PPN was indeed to the west of where we were. Well done Arpege (and GFS). We did have a couple of hours of heavier rain from around 3.30pm, but we'd already decided to have a meal and couple of pints/wines around 4, followed by a scare maze. Not long after we exited the scare maze at half-5'ish, the rain turned more to drizzle then mizzle, before stopping completely by 7'ish. 

One benefit of the forecast was that I think it dissuaded a lot of people from going, and the queue times were pretty low (in the evening we more or less walked on/had a 5 min wait for most rides.

What could have been a very soggy nightmare was actually a great day out, with timings really working out for us.


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Chunky Pea
30 October 2026 12:14:43
Am fascinated by this painting from the late 19th century. October's light captured perfectly, but of note is the lack of leaves on the trees. Honestly looks more like mid November. Perhaps another example of how seasons changed somewhat quicker in the past? 


Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

Ally Pally Snowman
30 October 2026 12:26:25

Am fascinated by this painting from the late 19th century. October's light captured perfectly, but of note is the lack of leaves on the trees. Honestly looks more like mid November. Perhaps another example of how seasons changed somewhat quicker in the past? 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 

Yes would be late November here now.

So many trees still in full leaf and green still. Fingers crossed the SSW brings something more 19th century 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
30 October 2026 13:41:39

Yes would be late November here now.

So many trees still in full leaf and green still. Fingers crossed the SSW brings something more 19th century 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

In 1976, when we moved to Kent, I reckoned to have all the leaves from some big trees near our garden (mature, two beeches, an ash and a lime) picked up and on the compost heap in the first few days of November, if not in October. By the time we left, in 2002, the clearing up was never complete until mid-November; easily memorable as the difference between being able to do the clearing at leisure in half term and having to squeeze it in on a subsequent weekend.

So maybe the change of date is later than you're thinking?

It's not comparable, as Chichester is nearer the sea and perhaps milder, but sweeping up leaves here, in 2025 maybe 2026, continues to the very end of November


I can calculate the movements of stars, but not the madness of men - Isaac Newton

Chichester 12m asl

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