The Weather Outlook

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KDB1
  • KDB1
  • Newbie Topic Starter
17 August 2026 08:29:13
This a subject I have posted on Netweather, 11 years ago.

I can only speak for this area as you are going to get local variations as always when it comes to the weather, but my observations and feelings, the number of days with thunder have definitely declined in the last few years especially since and including 2010.

That is what I posted in June 2015, I didn't hear my first thunderclap of that year until the 1st of July.

In 2022, I didn't hear my first thunderclap of that year until the 7th September.

I really do feel as though thunder and thunderstorms have been declining ever since around 2010.

I checked with TORRO who do an annual thunderstorm analysis every year on some figures

http://www.torro.org.uk/pdf/torro_ann_rev_webb2024.pdf 

A quote from the overview

"Annual ‘thunder heard’ day totals in 2024 were mostly below average, maintaining the recent trend  for ‘quiet’ years over the UK and Ireland."

These are the figures for Wokingham

1981-2010 average is 16 days

2016: 14 (-2)

2017: 9 (-7)

2018: 7 (-9)

2019: 11 (-5)

2020: 10 (-6)

2021: 8  (-8)

2022: 9  (-7)

2023: 10 (-6)

2024: 12 (-4)

Every year from 2016-24   has been below the 1981-2010 average.

In the 1990s, I can recall some great periods of thunder activity.    In July 1995, I recall having two thunderstorms on the same day, one in the morning and one in the late afternoon. Even at the start of August 1995 and the great summer spell, a small thunderstorm trundled across over at midnight.

Both June 1990 and 1991, I had three thunderstorms on one day. 

In early September 1987, every shower that came across seemed to be electrified. 

These days, it seems if you get a thunderstorm, "thank your lucky stars" because you are not going to get another one.

Mid June 2020 has been the closest in recent years to something akin to the 1990s. around here   I even got a supercell one evening.  

Since about early August 2021, it seems to have got even worse. As I mentioned, I didn't hear the first thunderclap of 2022 until 7th September.  

Even when the parameters are really  favorable for thunderstorm development, the odds are it will be a bust.

Does anyone feel the same?   

Jiries
17 August 2026 10:07:55
Good post and i remember it used to be a lot in the past i think like average 10 per year in the 80's and 90's only to declined a lot.  Had one this year before the record breaking heat in May that was went over head and power cut while at work for a short time.  That the real intense storm here which was not seen for many years.

Nicosisa now getting more storms than before and there some currently happening today so why those posters now chasing for light rain and showers?  i never thought of seeing this as many in here or there love snow and thundrstorms, not light rain or boring rain showers.

To end the drought here we should be chasing for thunderstorms that give recordable rain and other countries does that after long dry spells, never come to end under light rain, it really extremely stupid to happen.

As I posted in heatwave thread that the way of the heat coming to the UK is in a wrong path that prevent thunderstorms forming.  First the heat start building over west, I mean WEST not Kent and SE then it transferred to the East as a weak dying heat so that exited without a storm.  If we do get back to the past like before it the heat must enter via Kent first to spread other areas to the north, the storms will start coming up from the south to move north, then the heat faded away everywhere same time.  I used to see on the old BBC maps of the red heat or cold blue enter Kent first then spread out.

warrenb
17 August 2026 10:49:16
There does seem to be down here in the south a trend of French imports not making it across the channel. This has happened on a few occasions earlier in the year. They seem to die as they hit the channel or at least become unnelectrified (sic) resulting in nothing or just heavy rain as occurred a few times in May.

I do remember as a child it being very different with imports coming in al the time on a hot muggy day would often end in a good Thunderstorm.


NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
17 August 2026 11:24:07

There does seem to be down here in the south a trend of French imports not making it across the channel. This has happened on a few occasions earlier in the year. They seem to die as they hit the channel or at least become unnelectrified (sic) resulting in nothing or just heavy rain as occurred a few times in May.

I do remember as a child it being very different with imports coming in al the time on a hot muggy day would often end in a good Thunderstorm.

Originally Posted by: warrenb 

Certainly here the same. They lose their mojo as they cross the Channel. Or there is a deflector up above.  The Portland Deflector.  TBH I can't remember the last proper thunderstorm here. There have been some feeble affairs this year but no more than that.  I'm sure Northern France is conssiderly wetter than here and the Channel islands.


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

Essan
17 August 2026 12:22:13
I think I used up my full annual thunderstorm quota on 25th June up in North Moidart!    And, it seems, my rain quota too .....

Looking back at recent years in Evesham - days of thunder with date first heard in brackets:

2021:  6  (10th May)

2022:  5  (8th June)

2023:  14  (6th April)

2024:  6  (5th May)

2025:  6  (22nd March)

2026:  4  (15th April)

(There may have been other occasioons when distant thunder was audible - but I didn't hear it myself)

2023 was a clear outlier.    I suppose I should realistically expect 1 or 2 more days of thunder this year.


Andy

Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl

Weather & Earth Science News 

Look in the doubt we've wallowed, look at the leaders we've followed, look at the lies we've swallowed, and I don't want to hear no more

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
17 August 2026 12:34:05

There does seem to be down here in the south a trend of French imports not making it across the channel. This has happened on a few occasions earlier in the year. They seem to die as they hit the channel or at least become unnelectrified (sic) resulting in nothing or just heavy rain as occurred a few times in May.

I do remember as a child it being very different with imports coming in al the time on a hot muggy day would often end in a good Thunderstorm.

Originally Posted by: warrenb 

Very much my impression, too, over the last twenty years - and I don't think my moving to Sussex from Kent has materially affected the frequency of experience of thunderstorms.

We're also missing out on the traditional synoptics at the end of a heat wave, when an active cold front would sweep in from the west or even southwest, and pile up the hot air in the plume ahead of it to create deep cumulonimbus.


It's not the voting that's democracy, it's the counting - Tom Stoppard

Chichester 12m asl

KDB1
  • KDB1
  • Newbie Topic Starter
18 August 2026 08:12:48
TORRO has just released their 2025 report

http://www.torro.org.uk/pdf/torro_ann_rev_webb2025.pdf 

Wokingham's figures are quite stark from the TORRO reports

1981-2010 average is 16 days

2016: 14

2017: 9

2018: 7

2019: 11

2020: 10

2021: 8

2022: 9

2023: 10

2024: 12

2025: 6

Every year on the above list has been below the 1981-2010 average.

Jiries
18 August 2026 08:23:10

TORRO has just released their 2025 report

http://www.torro.org.uk/pdf/torro_ann_rev_webb2025.pdf 

Wokingham's figures are quite stark from the TORRO reports

1981-2010 average is 16 days

2016: 14

2017: 9

2018: 7

2019: 11

2020: 10

2021: 8

2022: 9

2023: 10

2024: 12

2025: 6

Every year on the above list has been below the 1981-2010 average.

Originally Posted by: KDB1 

If we are in 1996 with today conditions I am sure we would have thunderstorms last night giving ue 25-50mm of rain, but sadly none just a dampness and not recordable while many posters which gone weirdly excited with poxy light rain last night?  I was more excited reading the latest storms unfold in Nicosia yesterday which one area got 62mm where I used to live.  My highest rainfall recorded during my life in Epsom was 78mm in 3 hours from a stationary storm over my area.  MIss the past storms as it used to be around 10 per year which for summer months, not including Spring or other seasons which April used to deliver too during April showers.

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
18 August 2026 08:47:10
It would be interesting to nail down the physical reason for this change, which does seem real. 

My sense is that what we have less of is primarily those high based Spanish plumes, and thundery showers under Northerly airmasses.

For the Spanish plumes, it’s genuinely perplexing. There’s still huge thundery activity on the near continent and up Western France in the more unsettled years (though not in drought years like 2026). So the source region doesn’t seem to have lost thunder. Are prevailing winds steering these more Eastwards than before? Or is it that the colder airmasses to the North and West which might serve to pep up a moving storm mass are not as cool, so convection can more easily die down over the channel?

For northerlies is it perhaps a similar issue: warmer source airmass than before, so less intense in situ convection? We’d need to look at data from sondes to see if thats the case. 


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
westv
18 August 2026 08:50:20

TORRO has just released their 2025 report

http://www.torro.org.uk/pdf/torro_ann_rev_webb2025.pdf 

Wokingham's figures are quite stark from the TORRO reports

1981-2010 average is 16 days

2016: 14

2017: 9

2018: 7

2019: 11

2020: 10

2021: 8

2022: 9

2023: 10

2024: 12

2025: 6

Every year on the above list has been below the 1981-2010 average.

Originally Posted by: KDB1 

I'm just curious to know whether there were any 10 year or so periods during 1981 - 2010 that fell below the average? Is the average boosted by a number of years with a large number of storms or was the number fairly evenly distributed?


Big heat in May

Summer will be spray.

Chunky Pea
18 August 2026 08:58:53
I recall watching some documentary a few years back in which the focus was on how the 'tornado valley' over in the US is also shifting further east with time. I wonder if this has some bearing, or at least some connection to mean patterns on this side of N. Atlantic? 

Definetely noticing a similar decline here as well, and all the more so during the winter. Those roaring Altantic bangers seem to be all but a thing of the past now. 


Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

KDB1
  • KDB1
  • Newbie Topic Starter
18 August 2026 09:04:32

I'm just curious to know whether there were any 10 year or so periods during 1981 - 2010 that fell below the average? Is the average boosted by a number of years with a large number of storms or was the number fairly evenly distributed?

Originally Posted by: westv 

When was the last month that could be  determined "thundery" for England as a whole?

August 2004 was a thundery month, surely that can't have been the last occasion?

lanky
18 August 2026 09:12:26
I had a thought on these thunder days stats 

Thunder is just a by-product of rapid air expansion caused by lightning so the same observation could just as easily have remarked on the reduction of lightning days.

Lightning itself is caused by the charge transfer inside clouds as water droplets or ice crystals brush against each other during convective circulation inside the cloud resulting in a huge charge separation between the top and bottom of the cloud until it becomes so big that there is a discharge between the two (seen as lightning)

The formation of water droplets is initiated by particulates in the atmosphere which act as a nucleus to start the seeding into droplets so it occurred to me that with the cleaner air the UK has experienced over the last 20-30 years there is less particulate matter to initiate the seeding to droplets and hence charge separation in cumulonimbus clouds hence less thunder and lightning

I have no idea whether this theory holds water (excuse pun !) but it was what went through my mind when I read the thread


Martin

Richmond, Surrey

RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
18 August 2026 18:05:01
There seems to be no shortage of thunderstorms across the channel. Maybe the French have dirtier air? But more seriously it would be interesting to see the equivalent of the Torro figures for France.
Rob

In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.

saxtemp
18 August 2026 18:20:14
Mentally 2007 seems to be the turning point for me. That year was particularly good, and marked the end of the regularity of thunderstorms. 2020 was pretty good too, but the trajectory seems to be downwards.
18 August 2026 21:11:24
This will be the reason I'll only give this summer 9/10. A few boring non breakdowns with a couple of dry, breezy, cloudy and less warm days is not my idea of interesting weather. Maybe rose tinted glasses again but I recall regular spectacular night time storms moving up from France in years gone by...
Jason

Salfords, Surrey

Jiries
18 August 2026 21:48:39

This will be the reason I'll only give this summer 9/10. A few boring non breakdowns with a couple of dry, breezy, cloudy and less warm days is not my idea of interesting weather. Maybe rose tinted glasses again but I recall regular spectacular night time storms moving up from France in years gone by...

Originally Posted by: Mildly Disappointed 

Like this today and yesterday so called break down that didn't deliver thunderstorms then sunny weather but cooler temps, what we got is unforecasted 2 days dirty clouds, humid and non recordable rain drops.  why so extensive clouds just for few drops which made me very annoyed.  I rather have lot of sunshine and thunderstorms like what Nicosia got yesterday.   The drought continue and the no thunderstorms continue.  

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