The Weather Outlook

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NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
05 August 2026 19:04:57

What an awful thought Nick. I thought release was only permitted during times of excess rainfall.

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

Not quite. Treated effluent is ok, if the wastewater treatment plants are working properly. 


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
05 August 2026 19:51:54

What an awful thought Nick. I thought release was only permitted during times of excess rainfall.

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

https://www.quora.com/Has-tap-water-been-recycled-7-times 

If you count each pass through a wastewater treatment plant followed by reuse as drinking water, urban systems can yield multiple cycles. A city that takes water from a river downstream of another city effectively uses water that may have passed through several prior treatment/discharge cycles.

It's an urban myth that the discharge to the sea of rivers like the Thames and Severn consists of water that has been re-used seven times, but in severe drought conditions it might not be far from the truth.


It's not the voting that's democracy, it's the counting - Tom Stoppard

Chichester 12m asl

Rob K
06 August 2026 10:16:49
Odiham still showing the last recorded rainfall was on June 22 so that's 45 days too. (And even then it was just 0.2mm). Looks nailed on to reach 50 days dry too.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

johncs2016
06 August 2026 19:47:30
This week's water scarcity report has just been issued by SEPA and can be viewed here .

Some rain has fallen here over the past week, but fortunes are still rather mixed in this report.

Last week, there was a warning that unless there was significant rainfall over this past week in the River Teviot (the main river which runs through Hawick in the Scottish Borders) and River Ettrick (also in the Borders) catchment areas, those areas would have their status upgraded all the way up to significant water scarcity status with water extraction restrictions also being introduced in those areas. There has been some rain there in the last few days with some of that falling towards the end of my time down there, but that wasn't enough to prevent that upgrade from moderate to significant water scarcity status with water extraction restrictions being introduced as a result.

However, the city of Dundee and the East Neuk of Fife have had their water scarcity status downgraded from significant water scarcity status to moderate water scarcity status with all water extraction restrictions in those areas being lifted as a result. That then leaves us with just one area in Aberdeen which is still at significant water scarcity status with water extraction restrictions remaining in place.

Meanwhile, Speyside and one area of SW Scotland has had their status downgraded to alert status from moderate water scarcity status with four areas having their status downgraded from alert status to early warning status, and with five other areas returning to normal.

Edinburgh and the rest of the Borders which hasn't been mentioned above are still at moderate water scarcity but there is a warning in place that two areas of Aberdeenshire will have their status upgraded to significant water scarcity status with water extraction restrictions being introduced there if there is no significant rainfall there within the next week.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

Tim A
07 August 2026 05:29:45
We had 1.5mm this month from the odd shower but not enough to make any difference. 2.8mm in July from bits of drizzle and showers when we had the NW winds over the top of the high pressure. No more rain forecast in foreseeable. 
Tim

NW Leeds

187m asl

 My PWS 

Charmhills
07 August 2026 08:16:24
All that energy being stored in the ocean around the UK will be released in the Autumn in the form of very heavy rain IMO.
Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power.

Duane.

scillydave
07 August 2026 12:17:48

Odiham still showing the last recorded rainfall was on June 22 so that's 45 days too. (And even then it was just 0.2mm). Looks nailed on to reach 50 days dry too.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

The BBC reporting today that as of yesterday Wisley is on 50 days without rain. The latest GFS gives another 12 dry days so I think there's a reasonable chance that it'll make it to 60. That would be the 2nd longest dry stretch on record (Mile End in Kent had 73 days in 1893) - we've already soared past the 45 days of 1976.

Given the greater evaporation rates in Summer than Spring I'd imagine that if we do get to 60+ days at Wisley that it'd be comparable to the 1893 record in that respect and it's certainly without precedent in Summer.


Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.

Bertwhistle
08 August 2026 14:08:07
I'm of mind that the extraordinary run of temepratures and drought we've had leaves huge volumes of water in the atmosphere, which doesn't return to us under HP and when temperatures remain high. But come the autumn it simply must come down.

1976 was followed by one of the wettest autumns on record. Last year the autumn months in the south here totalled over 300mm; it was worse in 2022 with over 400mm. 2018 had a bit of a 'circuit breaker' at the end of July which might have relieved the pressure.

This autumn could cause all kinds of flooding problems if we end up very wet, especially at the start, when the rain won't be useful but will run off on the baked ground. The lack of infiltration will lead to overland flow which in sloping areas will quickly find channels, leading to overbank flow; elsewhere there could be significant pooling.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Bertwhistle
08 August 2026 14:09:26

All that energy being stored in the ocean around the UK will be released in the Autumn in the form of very heavy rain IMO.

Originally Posted by: Charmhills 

Apologies Duane; just posted the same point, then read back!


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Hungry Tiger
08 August 2026 14:14:32

The BBC reporting today that as of yesterday Wisley is on 50 days without rain. The latest GFS gives another 12 dry days so I think there's a reasonable chance that it'll make it to 60. That would be the 2nd longest dry stretch on record (Mile End in Kent had 73 days in 1893) - we've already soared past the 45 days of 1976.

Given the greater evaporation rates in Summer than Spring I'd imagine that if we do get to 60+ days at Wisley that it'd be comparable to the 1893 record in that respect and it's certainly without precedent in Summer.

Originally Posted by: scillydave 

It's possible that 73 day record might be broken. 🙂🙂🙂


Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



lanky
08 August 2026 15:30:22
Been over to Kew Gardens this afternoon

The most parched I have ever seen it in over 40 years. Even some of the trees look as though they are in trouble now

https://panomart.net//wp-content/uploads/kewsumq.html 


Martin

Richmond, Surrey

Retron
08 August 2026 15:44:59

Been over to Kew Gardens this afternoon

The most parched I have ever seen it in over 40 years. Even some of the trees look as though they are in trouble now

Originally Posted by: lanky 

A great panorama there! 👍

It's much the same here, including the way some tree leaves are yellowing and falling. There have been a couple of times today where it's been really gusty for a minute or two (as we switch between desert mode and maritime sea breeze mode) and the garden's swirled with yellow leaves each time.

It's not just the drought: the high temperatures have scorched things, the very low humidity at times has desiccated them and the prolonged sunny hours mean it's been magnified all the more. All things being well, the trees would be growing like mad - but the lack of water means all the things I've listed just stress them more.

The hazel is always the first to be affected here (including in the coastal park, not just my garden), but it's been followed by hawthorn (a new one on me) and even elder - the younger ones have shed 50% of leaves on the lower branches. 

It's pretty grim, even without tree limb loss and, for buildings, subsidence; we've seen multiple mains water pipes leaking too as the ground shifts (the villages south of Sittingbourne are having a water cut right now), and closer to home the main pipe burst at the end of my road last week. No end in sight either, sadly...


Leysdown, north Kent
Jiries
08 August 2026 17:08:59

A great panorama there! 👍

It's much the same here, including the way some tree leaves are yellowing and falling. There have been a couple of times today where it's been really gusty for a minute or two (as we switch between desert mode and maritime sea breeze mode) and the garden's swirled with yellow leaves each time.

It's not just the drought: the high temperatures have scorched things, the very low humidity at times has desiccated them and the prolonged sunny hours mean it's been magnified all the more. All things being well, the trees would be growing like mad - but the lack of water means all the things I've listed just stress them more.

The hazel is always the first to be affected here (including in the coastal park, not just my garden), but it's been followed by hawthorn (a new one on me) and even elder - the younger ones have shed 50% of leaves on the lower branches. 

It's pretty grim, even without tree limb loss and, for buildings, subsidence; we've seen multiple mains water pipes leaking too as the ground shifts (the villages south of Sittingbourne are having a water cut right now), and closer to home the main pipe burst at the end of my road last week. No end in sight either, sadly...

Originally Posted by: Retron 

What about the foundation get effected from the drought, I remember I think was 2018 had reported houses got cracked due to foundation cracking up as the soil around them became so dry.  I remember saw one house with 2 inch crack that you see daylight coming in one of the house.

I just message to my old neighour in West Ewell about the Horse pond, Bourne Hall lake and the Hogmill river have not dry up as he said it still full due to fresh water being pumped from the starting point at Bourne Hall lake to keep the water levels up and river flowing, they don't like to see natural dry up for some reasons as it used to be often dry up or low levels prior to 1996 when there was no pump water, just spring water flow which often stop in the summer months.  If they did not waste fresh water to feed the lake and river I am sure it will be dried up completely and allow you to walk on the bed with cracks and look for items.  I always wanted that but never get a chance but I think it was completely dried up in 1990 but I was in Cyprus that time.  I just wonder where they get the water from and they were so stupid in 2014 wet winter as the lake swelled from the rains and flooded part of the Ewell road for few months and they still pumping the water instead of switch off to eased off the flooding.  They only turn off if there a big freeze but immediately turn on once it subsides.  

The local pond here i went last week and will check again on Monday had interestingly dropped by 15-20cm with water lillies sticking out, part of the lake bed near the entrance where water feed in appeared in the sun but very muddy.  I don't think Nuneaton council doesn't use fresh water pump as it should be banned among with hosepipe bans too.

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
08 August 2026 21:53:40
For comparison, I was in Lynmouth today. Does anyone else remember the flood of August 15th 1952? Some ten inches of rain fell in under 24 hours, and the only exit to the sea for all of north Exmoor was through Lynmouth. Devastation - and the largest number of deaths from any rainwater flood in Britain. A good memorial display if you're nearby.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lynmouth_Flood 

The tiny catchment area of 39 square miles yielded a flow that has only been exceeded twice by the River Thames with all its 3812 square miles since measurements started in 1883. The water that fell in that one day would supply the water needs of Lynmouth’s total population for 108 years. The West Lyn river rose 60 feet (18.25 meters) above the normal level at its highest point; 34 people in the wider area lost their lives – 28 in the Lynmouth/Barbrook area alone.

https://visitlyntonandlynmouth.com/history-heritage/the-1952-lynmouth-flood-disaster/ 


It's not the voting that's democracy, it's the counting - Tom Stoppard

Chichester 12m asl

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
09 August 2026 07:07:03
My Dad talked about the flood and the way the slow-moving thunderstorm was in exactly the right place and time for devastation.

The river looked so peaceful; well it was when I last saw it a few years back.

51 Days as I type since the last rainfall here. Incredible!


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
09 August 2026 10:07:57

I'm of the mind that the extraordinary run of temperatures and drought we've had leaves huge volumes of water in the atmosphere, which doesn't return to us under HP and when temperatures remain high. But come the autumn it simply must come down.

1976 was followed by one of the wettest autumns on record. Last year the autumn months in the south here totalled over 300mm; it was worse in 2022 with over 400mm. 2018 had a bit of a 'circuit breaker' at the end of July which might have relieved the pressure.

This autumn could cause all kinds of flooding problems if we end up very wet, especially at the start, when the rain won't be useful but will run off on the baked ground. The lack of infiltration will lead to overland flow which in sloping areas will quickly find channels, leading to overbank flow; elsewhere there could be significant pooling.

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

That's likely but in the medium term for this week, Darren mentioned the desert low humidities. I'm amazed there haven't been more heath and forest fires so far at least around here in Dorset. It seems more farm fires than others. Anyway, I've been talking to someone and there is the possibility that the fire service and others are being more proactive this year and making use of the data they already have on arsonists, and this is the almost novel idea, flying drones over high-risk areas. Almost or even 24/7.  It's got to be cheaper to do this even daily than spend huge sums on putting out the fires once they begin.


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
09 August 2026 16:16:16
Helicopter footage shared with the BBC shows a dust devil crossing the Kent landscape [near Leeds Castle]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/cddjn4l5531o 


It's not the voting that's democracy, it's the counting - Tom Stoppard

Chichester 12m asl

bledur
09 August 2026 18:10:53

That's likely but in the medium term for this week, Darren mentioned the desert low humidities. I'm amazed there haven't been more heath and forest fires so far at least around here in Dorset. It seems more farm fires than others. Anyway, I've been talking to someone and there is the possibility that the fire service and others are being more proactive this year and making use of the data they already have on arsonists, and this is the almost novel idea, flying drones over high-risk areas. Almost or even 24/7.  It's got to be cheaper to do this even daily than spend huge sums on putting out the fires once they begin.

Originally Posted by: NMA 

Fire on the New Forest Today , been quite a few but have been contained quite quickly.

https://www.dailyecho.co.uk/news/26449071.live---vehicle-fire-off-a31-causing-long-delays/ 

bledur
09 August 2026 18:14:51

A great panorama there! 👍

It's much the same here, including the way some tree leaves are yellowing and falling. There have been a couple of times today where it's been really gusty for a minute or two (as we switch between desert mode and maritime sea breeze mode) and the garden's swirled with yellow leaves each time.

It's not just the drought: the high temperatures have scorched things, the very low humidity at times has desiccated them and the prolonged sunny hours mean it's been magnified all the more. All things being well, the trees would be growing like mad - but the lack of water means all the things I've listed just stress them more.

The hazel is always the first to be affected here (including in the coastal park, not just my garden), but it's been followed by hawthorn (a new one on me) and even elder - the younger ones have shed 50% of leaves on the lower branches. 

It's pretty grim, even without tree limb loss and, for buildings, subsidence; we've seen multiple mains water pipes leaking too as the ground shifts (the villages south of Sittingbourne are having a water cut right now), and closer to home the main pipe burst at the end of my road last week. No end in sight either, sadly...

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Drought hitting the trees round here especially Oaks with many dropping limbs. At local show yesterday on the Somerley Estate there were warning signs not to go under the trees due to Limb Drop.

bledur
09 August 2026 18:24:54

For comparison, I was in Lynmouth today. Does anyone else remember the flood of August 15th 1952? Some ten inches of rain fell in under 24 hours, and the only exit to the sea for all of north Exmoor was through Lynmouth. Devastation - and the largest number of deaths from any rainwater flood in Britain. A good memorial display if you're nearby.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lynmouth_Flood 

The tiny catchment area of 39 square miles yielded a flow that has only been exceeded twice by the River Thames with all its 3812 square miles since measurements started in 1883. The water that fell in that one day would supply the water needs of Lynmouth’s total population for 108 years. The West Lyn river rose 60 feet (18.25 meters) above the normal level at its highest point; 34 people in the wider area lost their lives – 28 in the Lynmouth/Barbrook area alone.

https://visitlyntonandlynmouth.com/history-heritage/the-1952-lynmouth-flood-disaster/ 

Originally Posted by: DEW 

There is a painting of the storm over Exmoor which devastated Lynmouth . It was painted by a Commander Geoffery Webb and is included in the Observers book of weather by R.M. Lester. . It was painted from 40 miles away .

Bertwhistle
10 August 2026 12:33:18
Heading for Longleat Centerparcs soon with children and dogs. Quite correctly they have a current BBQ ban. It was the same while we were there in 2022; yet more than one family decided they would BBQ despite the signage, the website etc.

I cycled round to the villas with the smoke signals and reported the numbers to reception, who responded appropriately.

It's drier this year even than then and I am worried that we (& others) won't escape from the high-fenced compound if one of these idiots starts a fire.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

fairweather
10 August 2026 14:11:25
Not something I was especially aware of:-

"AI Data Centers’ Water Consumption Breaks 264 Billion Gallons in 2025 as Devastating Drought Hits Nearly 63% of U.S"

https://www.yahoo.com/news/us/articles/ai-data-centers-water-consumption-140002428.html 


S.Essex, 42m ASL
NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
10 August 2026 14:13:28

Heading for Longleat Centerparcs soon with children and dogs. Quite correctly they have a current BBQ ban. It was the same while we were there in 2022; yet more than one family decided they would BBQ despite the signage, the website etc.

I cycled round to the villas with the smoke signals and reported the numbers to reception, who responded appropriately.

It's drier this year even than then and I am worried that we (& others) won't escape from the high-fenced compound if one of these idiots starts a fire.

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

Have fun and look out for the Sequoias. Take some bolt croppers just in case for the latter...


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

Jiries
10 August 2026 14:54:42
I went to the lake and it already dropped a lot some lake bed are now out of the water, will check next week and if the lake bed really dried up hope to walk on it.  Where the swans and geese stood up I can see how shallow the water levels from their feet probaby 5cm at the shore area near the feeder stream, I check the feeder stream if there any trickle movement but hard to tell.

Roger Parsons
10 August 2026 16:08:51
BBC Live update:

Summary

Swathes of England and all of Wales are in drought, with more areas due to be declared this afternoon - here's a map of affected areas

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/ace/standard/800/cpsprodpb/vivo/live/images/2026/8/10/f54501a8-a47f-4717-a665-060d524f9cb0.jpg.webp 

Drought to be declared in more parts of England as heat health alerts upgraded

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cwn8n7845ldjt 


RogerP

West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire

Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.

William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830

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