The Weather Outlook

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bledur
05 August 2026 04:58:28

Sadly predictable that you should pop in to misrepresent what people are saying.  The real controversy centres around people like you still trying to deny climate change, despite the growing evidence.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Where in that have I denied climate change?

The article, findings in that report are a bit of a bombshell to the narrow minded who keep on claiming it is just Greenhouse gases warming the climate faster than expected in N.W. Europe.

Like I said it shows how much there is to yet understand what is going on.at the moment.

You would do better to take a less blinkered view.

lanky
05 August 2026 07:21:24

That's not what the study says. The reason that Europe is warming far faster than the rest of the world is not because of greenhouse gases but because of the cleaner air with less sulphur. This is allowing more sunlight as you say to get to the ground which creates higher temperatures, but it is also having an effect with regional weather patterns increasing the likelihood of higher pressure over the region. A reminder this was a Met office backed study.

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 

The Arctic is warming even faster than Europe. As well as warming from GHG, there are large albedo changes as the ice cap shrinks and sea water is exposed which is far less reflective to sunlight, This in turn reduces the temperature gradient between the Tropics and the Pole and leads to a shift and weakening of the Jet Stream which in turn has an effect on the day to day synoptics - in general a less volatile day to day variation

I think all 3 of these (GHG, reduced dimming and albedo change in the Arctic) are combining to lead to this pronounced temperature increase in Europe although I still believe AGW is the primary driver


Martin

Richmond, Surrey

Bertwhistle
05 August 2026 07:52:53

It wasn’t, Bert. How is ‘pop in’ a personal attack?  I’m puzzled by your interpretation.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Perhaps I bolded the wrong bit. 'Predictable that you...' implies a knowledge of a poster's persona and portrays it in a negative way with the following part 'pop in', suggesting the poster isn't a regular valued poster, which of course is personal and not related to the topic.

We should leave it there I think or we will both be guilty of committing the additional wrong of derailing the thread (which is actually a very useful discussion)!


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Roger Parsons
05 August 2026 07:53:13

The Arctic is warming even faster than Europe. As well as warming from GHG, there are large albedo changes as the ice cap shrinks and sea water is exposed which is far less reflective to sunlight, This in turn reduces the temperature gradient between the Tropics and the Pole and leads to a shift and weakening of the Jet Stream which in turn has an effect on the day to day synoptics - in general a less volatile day to day variation

I think all 3 of these (GHG, reduced dimming and albedo change in the Arctic) are combining to lead to this pronounced temperature increase in Europe although I still believe AGW is the primary driver

Originally Posted by: lanky 

Glaciers were retreating significantly back in the 70s, with the attendant issues you mention. GHG, reduced dimming and albedo change. Back then Ecologists were  already considering the issue of AGW. Yet we still have the "wishful thinkers" and Climate Change deniers, in spite of the Earth's geological history of massive climate change without human intervention. Today we see more space junk is going to hit the moon! Space fly-tippers. It's mine - I can dump it where I choose. What a species!

https://www.bgs.ac.uk/discovering-geology/maps-and-resources/climate-change-through-time/ 


RogerP

West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire

Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.

William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830

Gandalf The White
05 August 2026 08:12:56

Glaciers were retreating significantly back in the 70s, with the attendant issues you mention. GHG, reduced dimming and albedo change. Back then Ecologists were  already considering the issue of AGW. Yet we still have the "wishful thinkers" and Climate Change deniers, in spite of the Earth's geological history of massive climate change without human intervention. Today we see more space junk is going to hit the moon! Space fly-tippers. It's mine - I can dump it where I choose. What a species!

https://www.bgs.ac.uk/discovering-geology/maps-and-resources/climate-change-through-time/ 

Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 

Yes, I agree. I saw the piece about the space junk hitting the Moon; add in the amount of junk orbiting the Earth and you have to conclude we haven’t advanced much from a ‘slash and burn’ mentality.  Except we only have this one planet, despite what Musk thinks he can achieve.


Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



Brian Gaze
05 August 2026 11:36:57
It would be interesting to see how this summer compares to winter 1963 in terms of severity in the southern half of the UK. 
Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

bledur
05 August 2026 18:19:47

The Arctic is warming even faster than Europe. As well as warming from GHG, there are large albedo changes as the ice cap shrinks and sea water is exposed which is far less reflective to sunlight, This in turn reduces the temperature gradient between the Tropics and the Pole and leads to a shift and weakening of the Jet Stream which in turn has an effect on the day to day synoptics - in general a less volatile day to day variation

I think all 3 of these (GHG, reduced dimming and albedo change in the Arctic) are combining to lead to this pronounced temperature increase in Europe although I still believe AGW is the primary driver

Originally Posted by: lanky 

More the catalyst for accelerated warming in Arctic and bordering countries,.

The Arctic's rapid warming—exceeding the global average by far—is a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification. This is driven by several interconnected processes:

Albedo feedback: As the climate warms and snow and ice melt, they reveal darker surfaces underneath, such as ocean water or bare ground, which absorb more solar energy. This accelerates the warming and leads to further melting—a classic feedback loop.

Convection differences: In the tropics, strong convection (warm air rising and mixing into the atmosphere) distributes heat vertically. But the Arctic experiences very little convection due to the weaker heat from the Sun, so the heat remains trapped near the surface.

Lapse rate feedback: In cold regions like the Arctic, the air near the ground warms much faster than the air higher in the atmosphere, trapping heat near the surface, and further accelerating the warming.

Water vapour transport: Atmospheric circulation patterns move warm, moist air from the tropics towards the poles. Since a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, the amount of water vapour transported to the poles is expected to increase with climate change, further intensifying Arctic warming.

lanky
06 August 2026 07:02:08

More the catalyst for accelerated warming in Arctic and bordering countries,.

The Arctic's rapid warming—exceeding the global average by far—is a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification. This is driven by several interconnected processes:

Albedo feedback: As the climate warms and snow and ice melt, they reveal darker surfaces underneath, such as ocean water or bare ground, which absorb more solar energy. This accelerates the warming and leads to further melting—a classic feedback loop.

Convection differences: In the tropics, strong convection (warm air rising and mixing into the atmosphere) distributes heat vertically. But the Arctic experiences very little convection due to the weaker heat from the Sun, so the heat remains trapped near the surface.

Lapse rate feedback: In cold regions like the Arctic, the air near the ground warms much faster than the air higher in the atmosphere, trapping heat near the surface, and further accelerating the warming.

Water vapour transport: Atmospheric circulation patterns move warm, moist air from the tropics towards the poles. Since a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, the amount of water vapour transported to the poles is expected to increase with climate change, further intensifying Arctic warming.

Originally Posted by: bledur 

You say catalyst and I say driver but other than that we are both saying the same thing. None of these amplified effects would happen without AGW happening


Martin

Richmond, Surrey

Chunky Pea
06 August 2026 07:08:08

And i also posted about a study done in part with the met office regarding this. It's linked with the cleaner air since.

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 

I watched an interview with John Hammond the other day and he confirmed this also. 

It would seem that global warming isn't down to emisions, but the ridding of them. 


Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

Retron
06 August 2026 07:10:22

I watched an interview with John Hammond the other day and he confirmed this also. 

It would seem that global warming isn't down to emisions, but the ridding of them. 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 

What they're actually saying is that warming would have happened anyway (as CO2 rises), but the particulate-polluted skies masked it somewhat in our region. Now we have cleaner skies we're simply catching up to where we would have been...


Leysdown, north Kent
Chunky Pea
06 August 2026 07:19:56

The Arctic is warming even faster than Europe. As well as warming from GHG, there are large albedo changes as the ice cap shrinks and sea water is exposed which is far less reflective to sunlight, This in turn reduces the temperature gradient between the Tropics and the Pole and leads to a shift and weakening of the Jet Stream which in turn has an effect on the day to day synoptics - in general a less volatile day to day variation

I think all 3 of these (GHG, reduced dimming and albedo change in the Arctic) are combining to lead to this pronounced temperature increase in Europe although I still believe AGW is the primary driver

Originally Posted by: lanky 

Every part of the world seems to be 'warming faster' than that rest, or so we are told. Sloganeering over sound facts seems to be a thing in the climate debate. 

Back in the winter of 2013/2014, the global average fell to 'near normal', and the jet stream became amplified across the Atlantic, causing storm after storm, yet, we were told this was down to climate change. Similar winter jet stream profiles, and even more robust ones, in the 70s, 80s, 90s, however, did not seem to be. To me, there seems to be curious effort to attribute every single weather event to 'climate change' over the last 15/20 years. 


Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

saxtemp
06 August 2026 08:15:24

Every part of the world seems to be 'warming faster' than that rest, or so we are told. Sloganeering over sound facts seems to be a thing in the climate debate. 

Back in the winter of 2013/2014, the global average fell to 'near normal', and the jet stream became amplified across the Atlantic, causing storm after storm, yet, we were told this was down to climate change. Similar winter jet stream profiles, and even more robust ones, in the 70s, 80s, 90s, however, did not seem to be. To me, there seems to be curious effort to attribute every single weather event to 'climate change' over the last 15/20 years. 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 

Indeed, there is such scaremongering, politicising, and exploitation of climate change, that as I've said before, at this point I don't blame people for not believing in it. Usually the most ardant 'believers' are the most guilty of pushing nonsense.

The reality is that some of our understanding of climate change is settled, and some still quite vague. But the nature of modern society is that official truths are unquestionable, the problem you get there is that when people get rightly sceptical because of repeated lies, they no longer believe anything, including things that are true.

lanky
06 August 2026 09:46:31

Every part of the world seems to be 'warming faster' than that rest, or so we are told. Sloganeering over sound facts seems to be a thing in the climate debate. 

Back in the winter of 2013/2014, the global average fell to 'near normal', and the jet stream became amplified across the Atlantic, causing storm after storm, yet, we were told this was down to climate change. Similar winter jet stream profiles, and even more robust ones, in the 70s, 80s, 90s, however, did not seem to be. To me, there seems to be curious effort to attribute every single weather event to 'climate change' over the last 15/20 years. 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 

It's not too hard to find regional representations of overall global temperature change such as this one from GISTEMP showing the enhanced warming in Europe and Arctic regions of Asia and N America but much less in many parts of the S Hemisphere

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/ 

I agree that the detailed effects of this climatic shift on day to day weather in different parts of the world are not yer fully quantified. In your example of 2013/4 I have read it postulated that the increased temperature in the Arctic lead to a weakening of the polar circulation in Winter which in turn lead to a very cold outbreak in the NE USA that winter. The huge temperature gradient there lead to the spawning of very active depressions which moved across the Atlantic to the UK. Such are the complex interdependencies.

The whole concept of Global Warming from CO2 emissions (and water vapour) was postulated by Svante Arrhenius in the 19th century long before any direct evidence was detected

 

UserPostedImage


Martin

Richmond, Surrey

Chunky Pea
06 August 2026 11:30:16

It's not too hard to find regional representations of overall global temperature change such as this one from GISTEMP showing the enhanced warming in Europe and Arctic regions of Asia and N America but much less in many parts of the S Hemisphere

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/ 

I agree that the detailed effects of this climatic shift on day to day weather in different parts of the world are not yer fully quantified. In your example of 2013/4 I have read it postulated that the increased temperature in the Arctic lead to a weakening of the polar circulation in Winter which in turn lead to a very cold outbreak in the NE USA that winter. The huge temperature gradient there lead to the spawning of very active depressions which moved across the Atlantic to the UK. Such are the complex interdependencies.

The whole concept of Global Warming from CO2 emissions (and water vapour) was postulated by Svante Arrhenius in the 19th century long before any direct evidence was detected

 

Originally Posted by: lanky 

Fair point, but this in itself could be just down to natural temperature displacements which can and do occur thoughout history across the N. Hemisphere. 

I can't find 2m temp anomalies from this particular RA dataset, but if we look at just December 2013 (as a monthly whole) in isolation compared to what I think is a similar December back in 1929, it is clear that the temp profile is broadly similar. If anything, the displaced warmth across 'our side' of the Arctic was more enhanced back in 1929. Looking back on historic maps like this makes me ponder if every weather pattern today can be put down simply to 'climate change'. How does one isolate the climate change factor? Clearly, higher summer temps in HP set ups in the summer (and winter) can undeniably be pin pointed as proof that something is amiss. 

December 1929 850 T anom and mean pressure pattern:

UserPostedImage

.

December 2013 850 T anom and mean pressure pattern:

UserPostedImage


Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

lanky
06 August 2026 12:43:46

Fair point, but this in itself could be just down to natural temperature displacements which can and do occur thoughout history across the N. Hemisphere. 

I can't find 2m temp anomalies from this particular RA dataset, but if we look at just December 2013 (as a monthly whole) in isolation compared to what I think is a similar December back in 1929, it is clear that the temp profile is broadly similar. If anything, the displaced warmth across 'our side' of the Arctic was more enhanced back in 1929. Looking back on historic maps like this makes me ponder if every weather pattern today can be put down simply to 'climate change'. How does one isolate the climate change factor? Clearly, higher summer temps in HP set ups in the summer (and winter) can undeniably be pin pointed as proof that something is amiss. 

December 1929 850 T anom and mean pressure pattern:

UserPostedImage

.

December 2013 850 T anom and mean pressure pattern:

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 

Yes I think it comes down more to percentages and probabilities at the moment whilst we far from fully understand all the mechanisms and feedbacks involved. With temperature the percentages/probabilities is quite easy to see but it is much more difficult to unravel for rainfall, storminess and other variables.


Martin

Richmond, Surrey

bledur
06 August 2026 19:04:12

Every part of the world seems to be 'warming faster' than that rest, or so we are told. Sloganeering over sound facts seems to be a thing in the climate debate. 

Back in the winter of 2013/2014, the global average fell to 'near normal', and the jet stream became amplified across the Atlantic, causing storm after storm, yet, we were told this was down to climate change. Similar winter jet stream profiles, and even more robust ones, in the 70s, 80s, 90s, however, did not seem to be. To me, there seems to be curious effort to attribute every single weather event to 'climate change' over the last 15/20 years. 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 

Yes that definitely is a "thing" Virtually any BBC article on a Heatwave for instance just has to get the words Climate Change included.

 Whilst AGW is definitely happening the brainwashing reports are a negative impact and only fuel the deniers. 

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