The Weather Outlook

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DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
02 August 2026 14:50:09
UserPostedImage

From the Downs today to show the colour of the Sussex Weald


It's not the voting that's democracy, it's the counting - Tom Stoppard

Chichester 12m asl

scillydave
02 August 2026 18:10:18
I've just returned from a weekend down in Kent near Tenterden. 

It was fascinating to see how dry it was and the changes to the vegetation on the journey.  The area to the North of Maidstone was the worst - whole trees and not just the usual suspects going brown in parts and everywhere looking like Autumn. Goodness knows what it will look like if the current forecasts are accurate and there's no significant rain for another few weeks. 

Back home in South Wales its brown in places but still green in the shade of the hedge banks.


Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
02 August 2026 22:18:35

I've just returned from a weekend down in Kent near Tenterden. 

It was fascinating to see how dry it was and the changes to the vegetation on the journey.  The area to the North of Maidstone was the worst - whole trees and not just the usual suspects going brown in parts and everywhere looking like Autumn. Goodness knows what it will look like if the current forecasts are accurate and there's no significant rain for another few weeks. 

Back home in South Wales its brown in places but still green in the shade of the hedge banks.

Originally Posted by: scillydave 

It’s interesting to see the gradations of drought. I just returned from Burgundy to the UK and, remarkably, it’s noticeably greener here. Yes the SE is looking pretty parched but there are still some birch trees with green leaves, some long grass retains a bit of greenishness, and the weeds and brambles haven’t given up.  In Saone et Loire it’s rapidly approaching Hollywood Mexico territory. 


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Jiries
03 August 2026 05:36:11
No weeds to see and those few spots that sting nettles kept coming up had not grown anymore during my garden inspection just few dead weeds pull out and few leaves picked up.  Very pleased with the dryness and weed free summer.  I think weeds galore will come back in September if we get 1995 very wet September type.
Hungry Tiger
03 August 2026 19:11:30
I'd love to know what the  statistical probability is of 2 consecutive rainless months.  🙂🙂🙂🙂. I reckon this August might challenge it. 🙂🙂
Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



tierradelfuego
03 August 2026 20:41:34

I'd love to know what the  statistical probability is of 2 consecutive rainless months.  🙂🙂🙂🙂. I reckon this August might challenge it. 🙂🙂

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

Certainly looking like the St Swithins day prophecy might actually be correct for once, at least down here in some parts of the South. Maybe would be a first from a no-rain perspective, or one of a very few.


Bucklebury

West Berkshire Downs AONB

135m ASL

VP2 with daytime FARS

Rainfall collector separated at ground level

Anemometer separated above roof level

WeatherLink Live (Byles Green Crew )

MRazzell
04 August 2026 07:52:55
I'm still trying to come to terms with the fact that by the end of the week it will be 50 days since we've had any measurable rainfall here. I find myself moving from frustration to astonishment as this historic spell continues. 

I'm curious to see how the insurance industry reacts to the inevitable claims for structural issues. Seasonal soil shrinkage and expansion is not technically subsidence, so wouldn’t typically be covered by most policies, even in the extreme.  


Far north of East Sussex. +150m asl.
NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
04 August 2026 08:15:40

I'm still trying to come to terms with the fact that by the end of the week it will be 50 days since we've had any measurable rainfall here. I find myself moving from frustration to astonishment as this historic spell continues. 

I'm curious to see how the insurance industry reacts to the inevitable claims for structural issues. Seasonal soil shrinkage and expansion is not technically subsidence, so wouldn’t typically be covered by most policies, even in the extreme.  

Originally Posted by: MRazzell 

Is it an incredible run, isn't it? Luckily I'm on gravel/sand but that didn't prevent a sinkhole appearing the other year from a leaking water main outside the house. All the new houses planned and being built around here need water. Wessex Water has said it will experience problems supplying these properties, but the Govt. of both persuasions said they need to be built. Repeat this all over the South of England.

Perhaps a solution is to go full on Third World and supply proletarian houses on a flexible rota system, maybe using bins to store water like I used to do when there was a trickle from the tap in the dry season. Sometimes/often for a few hours overnight.


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

picturesareme
04 August 2026 12:52:05
We have rain here 🙂

Not much but enough to release the scent of petrichor

scillydave
04 August 2026 13:34:52
I see the lightest of showers has just passed over Wisley - just for the statistics side of things I hope that it wasn't enough to register given that there's no sign of rain in the forecast for thete in the next ten days or so.

It would be galling to see the run broken by a trace amount.

Mind you we've a long way to go to break the record - 73 days without rain at Mile end in Kent back in 1893. Its probably one of the hardest records to beat - I don't think we've come anywhere close to it since.

For comparison the drought of 1976 had roughly 45 consecutive days.


Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.

The Beast from the East
04 August 2026 13:49:37

We have rain here 🙂

Not much but enough to release the scent of petrichor

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 

My Windows app is telling me "rain coming", but I dont see it.  We need it, I dont fancy dealing with any subsidence issues, though touch wood, hasnt happened in previous droughts. 


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
04 August 2026 15:21:21

My Windows app is telling me "rain coming", but I dont see it.  We need it, I dont fancy dealing with any subsidence issues, though touch wood, hasnt happened in previous droughts. 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

Unless you're on the valley floor, you'll be on chalk, not clay, and resistant to subsidence.


It's not the voting that's democracy, it's the counting - Tom Stoppard

Chichester 12m asl

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
04 August 2026 15:22:29
There was definitely a puddle in Sainsbury's car park. I thought of taking  a photo, just to show I wasn't imagining things
It's not the voting that's democracy, it's the counting - Tom Stoppard

Chichester 12m asl

saxtemp
04 August 2026 17:57:51

We have rain here 🙂

Not much but enough to release the scent of petrichor

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 

Same, today has been absolutely dreadful weather, bright overcast, humid, far too hot, as is always the case when I'm off work. But now just the tiny spit of rain had taken away the humidity and given us some petrichor.

Retron
04 August 2026 18:05:29
Two dying fronts today, two 20-minute spells of cloud but not a drop of rain...
Leysdown, north Kent
Rob K
05 August 2026 10:51:25
We had some actual proper heavy rain for a few minutes this morning! It doesn't seem to have registered on the local PWS though. Odiham SYNOPs reported rain and "recent rain" but not sure it will have actually registered in the gauge.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

lanky
05 August 2026 10:57:02

We had some actual proper heavy rain for a few minutes this morning! It doesn't seem to have registered on the local PWS though. Odiham SYNOPs reported rain and "recent rain" but not sure it will have actually registered in the gauge.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

I had the same issue yesterday afternoon. I was playing a bowls match about 1/2 mile from Kew Gardens weather station and it spotted with rain for about 10-15 mins then there was a heavier burst for a couple of minutes. I looked it up on Kew Gardens rainfall gauge when I got home and it registered 0.0. Could it have just evaporated before it was recorded ?


Martin

Richmond, Surrey

Bertwhistle
05 August 2026 14:15:05
Remarkably, some southern rivers are still running at normal levels.

These include Warwickshire's Avon, Somerset's Brue and Hampshire's Itchen (as of 28 July).

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6a6b45cdbf4a7aca8f89771d/Rainfall_and_river_flow_summary_22_to_28_July_2026.pdf 


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
05 August 2026 15:01:56
I don't know how many are running on treated effluent but I think it's what keeps some flowing. So I've heard...
Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

Bertwhistle
05 August 2026 15:43:57

I don't know how many are running on treated effluent but I think it's what keeps some flowing. So I've heard...

Originally Posted by: NMA 

What an awful thought Nick. I thought release was only permitted during times of excess rainfall.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Roger Parsons
05 August 2026 16:01:33

What an awful thought Nick. I thought release was only permitted during times of excess rainfall.

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

David Bellamy once said to me all toilet cisterns should have a label saying "To the Sea!"


RogerP

West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire

Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.

William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830

Rob K
05 August 2026 16:22:44

I don't know how many are running on treated effluent but I think it's what keeps some flowing. So I've heard...

Originally Posted by: NMA 

My local river, the Blackwater, always has plenty of flow even in the driest spells, and I am pretty sure it is mostly treated outflow from the sewage works. As for release permits, treated effluent "shouldn't" be a problem, it's the untreated stuff being released during heavy rain.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

tierradelfuego
05 August 2026 16:28:15

Remarkably, some southern rivers are still running at normal levels.

These include Warwickshire's Avon, Somerset's Brue and Hampshire's Itchen (as of 28 July).

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6a6b45cdbf4a7aca8f89771d/Rainfall_and_river_flow_summary_22_to_28_July_2026.pdf 

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

The Lambourn was still normal when I fished last Friday, albeit some of the levels will be potentially artificially high due to the abundant weed growth, the fishing was rubbish though 😒

More unexpected to me is that the aquifer levels locally that feed the Lambourn and the Pang are still completely normal and most are relatively steady, not even falling. That won't be impacted by any outflow of course.


Bucklebury

West Berkshire Downs AONB

135m ASL

VP2 with daytime FARS

Rainfall collector separated at ground level

Anemometer separated above roof level

WeatherLink Live (Byles Green Crew )

Andy J
05 August 2026 18:38:06
As of today this is now the longest period without measurable rain I've recorded over the last 44 years.   Now 35 consecutive days without measurable rain.

Previous record was 34 days from March 23rd-April 25th, 2002.

Also, only 1mm has fallen here over the last 50 days.


Gainsborough, Lincolnshire.
NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
05 August 2026 18:59:39
45 days with no rain in this part of Dorset. I think this now equals 1976. 
Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

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