The Weather Outlook

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NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
05 August 2026 09:23:44

In the olden days, I'm sure our ancestors dreaded the onset of colder and darker months. I assume that's when most illness and deaths occurred. 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

Indeed, and arguably the last paragraph particularly so, but we have various ways to help overcome this fear or dread of the colder, darker months. Sitting by the fire with a good book or binge-watching. Why not?  This can take us up to Christmas with its cheery lights, but can also trigger sadness and illness when we see others enjoying the festival.

So another way is to plan, beginning now in August by buying indoor bulbs such as scented Paperwhites to stagger flowering in pots going well into the New Year. Treated Hyacinths another. Plenty of options. Then, at least in the South by the time we get to mid January with noticeably lengthening daylight, look outside for snowdrops and we are almost there, perhaps with SAD on its way out. Or if you hate gardens and plants, try a daylight bulb and sit under it for an hour or so every day. Or try and get out and about, especially on sunny days. Vitamin D tablets? I swear by those too in the darker months.

But planning ahead with outdoor Tulips or whatever planted in November and the images in your mind of the colour to come in April and May help me navigate the Winter too. Of course March and April can be the cruellest months. I try different colours each year, composting the old bulbs so I don’t end up with a mismatch and fire blight ridden plants.

It’s largely in the mind how we approach winter, though it’s easier said than done. 


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

Matty H
05 August 2026 09:39:18

In the olden days, I'm sure our ancestors dreaded the onset of colder and darker months. I assume thats when most illness and deaths occurred. 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

I still do. I absolutely despise Winter. It has no redeeming qualities at all in my eyes. Miserable weather, miserable darkness. Vile

I used to be the same with Autumn, although these days, Autumn is largely an extension of summer 


Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

ozoneaurora
05 August 2026 10:15:28

I noticed last night that soon after 9 it was already getting quite dark. And this morning is grey with a cool gusty breeze. Despite the parched landscape it doesn't feel very summery at the moment! Today and tomorrow may not even reach 25C here for goodness sake.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

On 31 Aug 1989, Washington DC had a dull day with persistent light rain and drizzle. The wind was moderate NE and It did not feel summery at all with a max temp of only 21 C. I had to wear a coat. 🙂

ozoneaurora
05 August 2026 10:17:02

I still do. I absolutely despise Winter. It has no redeeming qualities at all in my eyes. Miserable weather, miserable darkness. Vile

I used to be the same with Autumn, although these days, Autumn is largely an extension of summer 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

Not looking forward to the winter either, especially with prospect of violent gales and driving rain.

Ally Pally Snowman
05 August 2026 10:25:12
Saw a stat showing Heathrow had a higher average July max temp than JFK in New York.  

29.3c to 28.7c

That doesn't happen very often 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
05 August 2026 10:35:02

All the BBQ and gardening stuff has been cleared from my Tesco.  Thats always a sign of Autumn.  No sign of Halloween yet though!  But lots of back to school stuff

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

I just don't understand why all the summer stuff gets cleared in early August. It gets more and more difficult to get bbq charcoal after July. Surely if temperatures are still in the 20s or higher, keep selling it - even if it's in smaller volumes!?


Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)

Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)

Retron
05 August 2026 10:39:55

I just don't understand why all the summer stuff gets cleared in early August. It gets more and more difficult to get bbq charcoal after July. Surely if temperatures are still in the 20s or higher, keep selling it - even if it's in smaller volumes!?

Originally Posted by: GezM 

It's because they order it in many months in advance, so once it's gone it's gone. They'll use long-range forecasts, but none of those forecasts ever pick up record-breaking months like the one we've just had! 


Leysdown, north Kent
Rob K
05 August 2026 10:49:24

I still do. I absolutely despise Winter. It has no redeeming qualities at all in my eyes. Miserable weather, miserable darkness. Vile

I used to be the same with Autumn, although these days, Autumn is largely an extension of summer 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

I like the crisp clear frosty mornings, and returning home to a roaring fire. However, such weather has become rarer than rain in July!

(Actually we had a brief downpour this morning much to my surprise - but again, half an hour later you would never know it had rained at all)


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Hungry Tiger
05 August 2026 10:59:38
A string of 30s are lining up for next week.  🙂🙂🙂
Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



Retron
05 August 2026 11:04:20

A string of 30s are lining up for next week.  🙂🙂🙂

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

The 6z GFS has 36 here next Wednesday! That happened a couple of weeks ago and stayed much the same every through every single consecutive run, before cooling a couple of degrees in the final couple of runs. We ended up with 34.7 here (29th July)... I've never seen such inter-run consistency before. The other models eventually caught up, the MetO raw had 25 a week out but ended up at 34 come the day.

I hope it doesn't happen again, but the way this summer's going you'd be mad to bet against it!


Leysdown, north Kent
doctormog
05 August 2026 11:08:40

Saw a stat showing Heathrow had a higher average July max temp than JFK in New York.  

29.3c to 28.7c

That doesn't happen very often 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

That is almost ten degrees (9.5°C to be precise) warmer than the average daily max here for July. It just goes to show the geographical extent of the heatwave. You would expect the average max to be 23.9°C here if the heat anomaly had been to the same extent nationwide. (It was in reality 19.8°C).


Ally Pally Snowman
05 August 2026 11:22:47

That is almost ten degrees (9.5°C to be precise) warmer than the average daily max here for July. It just goes to show the geographical extent of the heatwave. You would expect the average max to be 23.9°C here if the heat anomaly had been to the same extent nationwide. (It was in reality 19.8°C).

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Yes northern Europe has missed out really. Scandinavia and the Baltics have had similar issues. 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Brian Gaze
05 August 2026 12:25:42
Confidence on another significant blast of heat, at least in the south, next week now looks high.

UserPostedImage


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
05 August 2026 13:13:10

Confidence on another significant blast of heat, at least in the south, next week now looks high.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

What happens after that is a bit of a head scratcher. All the models, pretty much, are showing a cool down and troughs riding across the country in the third week of August. Yet the long term outlooks from the Met Office and ECM, as well as the global scale patterns (MJO phase, AAM etc) would seem to favour high pressure.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Bertwhistle
05 August 2026 13:27:01

What happens after that is a bit of a head scratcher. All the models, pretty much, are showing a cool down and troughs riding across the country in the third week of August. Yet the long term outlooks from the Met Office and ECM, as well as the global scale patterns (MJO phase, AAM etc) would seem to favour high pressure.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

HP to the west, still close by but latitudinally elongated, could still allow fronts/troughs and would permit a cooler set up to develop, especially if features repeatedly nudge the HP cell west, before it slips back again. I suppose that's the trouble with LT signals- they can be kind of right, but don't pretend to define the subtleties of meso scale geography.

Certainly interesting what lies ahead. For once something other than blue sky, blazing sun and parched earth appeals to me.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Bertwhistle
05 August 2026 14:10:52
GEFS graphs suggest the possibilty of two upcoming, but short heatwaves, which could feasibly merge into a longer one.

These look to be from around August 8th to 10th; August 12th to 14th. 

Met office mentioned this morning we had matched 1995s number of 30°C + days. Looks like we will exceed that figure. 


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Roger Parsons
05 August 2026 14:13:19
Have you enjoyed the Private Eye cover this week?

https://www.threads.com/@privateeyenews/post/DbpjsTnHHGk/media 


RogerP

West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire

Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.

William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830

Bertwhistle
05 August 2026 14:28:12

Have you enjoyed the Private Eye cover this week?

https://www.threads.com/@privateeyenews/post/DbpjsTnHHGk/media 

Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 

I believe that's only the front cover Roger? Even so, the points they've made in their own magical way are right there. 

I'm both tired and alarmed by this weather. I can just about cope with carting the largest watering can we could buy up and down the garden every evening (although a recent bout of radial nerve palsy made this a challenge!) We 'grow our own' and as you can imagine peppers, chillis, oranges are thriving but others are struggling even with the watering.

But nobody is watering on the wild side. The press has been on the big fires (including Headon Warren on the IOW, one of my favourite spotting grounds) but the less obvious environmerntal impacts won't reveal themselves for some time. I hope the forecasted heatwaves are last breaths, even though I do enjoy weather records. A good late August soaking would certainly send the mycelia into overdrive!


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Roger Parsons
05 August 2026 14:48:46

I believe that's only the front cover Roger? Even so, the points they've made in their own magical way are right there. 

I'm both tired and alarmed by this weather. I can just about cope with carting the largest watering can we could buy up and down the garden every evening (although a recent bout of radial nerve palsy made this a challenge!) We 'grow our own' and as you can imagine peppers, chillis, oranges are thriving but others are struggling even with the watering.

But nobody is watering on the wild side. The press has been on the big fires (including Headon Warren on the IOW, one of my favourite spotting grounds) but the less obvious environmerntal impacts won't reveal themselves for some time. I hope the forecasted heatwaves are last breaths, even though I do enjoy weather records. A good late August soaking would certainly send the mycelia into overdrive!

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

We did have an early cap of Boletus luridus in the garden back in June, but only one before the drought put a stop to all that!

https://www.first-nature.com/fungi/suillellus-luridus.php 


RogerP

West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire

Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.

William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
05 August 2026 14:59:31

Have you enjoyed the Private Eye cover this week?

https://www.threads.com/@privateeyenews/post/DbpjsTnHHGk/media 

Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 

And salted earth in parts of England too. It must have been panic time for the NT and RSPB to even consider using seawater.

Meanwhile, the hedgehog (this year's hoglet) in my garden is getting through its cat food and water I place in little glass bowls I wash out each day.  

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4gjp2j4zz8o 


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

Rob K
05 August 2026 15:46:12
Today, one of the "cool interludes" has still reached 27C in Essex. I'd be interested to know when and where the Met Office's 34th 30C day was!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

saxtemp
05 August 2026 17:56:44
P13 showing 38c

UserPostedImage

Matty H
05 August 2026 19:02:02

It's because they order it in many months in advance, so once it's gone it's gone. They'll use long-range forecasts, but none of those forecasts ever pick up record-breaking months like the one we've just had! 

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Spot on. Same with the portable aircon units


Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

saxtemp
05 August 2026 22:43:10
GFS has a crazy run next week, starting from the 10th

37, 37, 34, 35, 37

UserPostedImage

Rob K
05 August 2026 22:48:52

GFS has a crazy run next week, starting from the 10th

37, 37, 34, 35, 37

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: saxtemp 

Could be hotter here than in Mallorca!


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

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