The Weather Outlook

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tierradelfuego
03 August 2026 17:13:12
21st 30c day of the year here - 33.4c the max. 

A healthy 21.7c diurnal range.


Bucklebury

West Berkshire Downs AONB

135m ASL

VP2 with daytime FARS

Rainfall collector separated at ground level

Anemometer separated above roof level

WeatherLink Live (Byles Green Crew )

Ally Pally Snowman
03 August 2026 19:05:38

They seem to have accepted the Frittenden figure in May so I am pretty sure today will be the 32nd 30C day - also the 19th 32C day which equals the 1995 record.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Met Office have tweeted it was the 20th 32c day beating the 19 in 1995.


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Hungry Tiger
03 August 2026 19:07:48

Met Office have tweeted it was the 20th 32c day beating the 19 in 1995.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Incredible. Just seen that. 🙂🙂🙂🙂🙂


Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



Hungry Tiger
03 August 2026 19:51:12
Signals for heatwave No6. Things will drop to mid 20s and a bit lower. Then. 

. 🙂🙂🙂🙂. Source with acknowledgements.  

All eyes point towards mid month.

We will see a drop after Tuesday. Temps dropping back into the low 20s for many. Temps may rise up into the weekend and particularly into next week where we could see another heatwave as high pressure becomes more dominant.

Higher upper air temps, ( at or above 10) support heatwave thresholds comfortably. The upper air will start low as the high is likely to bulid in from the West. Remember all high pressures are different. Uppers will rise eventually.

Further North and West are likely to see alot of rainfall this week. Low pressure systems passing through the northern counties. Rainfall totals buliding up especially over high ground.

The main talking point also is the continuation of very dry weather across the south. There is bearly any in the forecast in the next 10 days unfortunately, possible heavy showers tomorrow and maybe a front pushing south on Thursday which may bring a splash of rain but other than that it's Further problems with wildlifes and damage to wildlife will sadly continue. This has been the theme all summer. Models show a proper unsettled pattern and it doesn't come off. 


Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



White Meadows
03 August 2026 20:36:46
Reasonable agreement continues for some kind of return to extreme heat for at least the southern half of the UK in about 8 days time. 

Just when you think it’s going to cool off, the oven door opens again. Astonishing. 

Jiries
03 August 2026 21:10:20

Reasonable agreement continues for some kind of return to extreme heat for at least the southern half of the UK in about 8 days time. 

Just when you think it’s going to cool off, the oven door opens again. Astonishing. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

i wonder when i will able to see a full sunny day as today heatwave and last one failed to deliver.  Just surprised the clouds are becoming a pest despite very dry ground that should limit clouds forming and there no moisture.  it reached 33C before the clouds came for no reason.

Rob K
03 August 2026 21:29:06

Met Office have tweeted it was the 20th 32c day beating the 19 in 1995.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Must have been a 32C at a manual station then. I have been keeping track of the daily maxima on the auto stations and I only have 19. 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Ally Pally Snowman
04 August 2026 03:52:42

Must have been a 32C at a manual station then. I have been keeping track of the daily maxima on the auto stations and I only have 19. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

I got a reply from the Met Office confirming yesterday was the 33rd 30c day. I also asked them about 1995 and they confirmed that holds the record of 34. 

You should email them any queries you have they are very good at replying.

[email protected]


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
White Meadows
04 August 2026 05:17:08

I got a reply from the Met Office confirming yesterday was the 33rd 30c day. I also asked them about 1995 and they confirmed that holds the record of 34. 

You should email them any queries you have they are very good at replying.

[email protected]

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

1995 might just hang in there as the king of the heatwave years then.

That was an incredible summer, one I’ll never forget. 

Ally Pally Snowman
04 August 2026 06:18:36

1995 might just hang in there as the king of the heatwave years then.

That was an incredible summer, one I’ll never forget. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

I think we should overtake 1995 soon. Heatwave 6 looks on track.


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
04 August 2026 07:10:29
I'll slip this in here as I don't think it was commented on at the time and the June thread has closed ... Radio Sussex news this morning included a mention of a record overnight min temp for the UK - 23.2C at Hastings on June (sic) 26th
I can calculate the movements of stars, but not the madness of men - Isaac Newton

Chichester 12m asl

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
04 August 2026 07:52:46

I think we should overtake 1995 soon. Heatwave 6 looks on track.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

More broadly, we are now on the cusp between 2026 being one of the great summers, and being the greatest summer. 

There are enough statistical freakages this year to ensure its place in the hall of fame, but a wet or cool August could yet relegate it below 1995 and 1976, into the list of years that petered out in August (notably 2018 and 2006).

Both of the top 2 were imperfect: 1995 had a very cool first 2/3 of June. 1976 was dry but unexciting from mid July onwards. An August that’s dry and at least, say, 17.5C CET (and ideally with warmth extending at least into Northern England) would crown 2026 as undisputed champ. 

If AIFS and ECM ensembles are to be believed then it’s game on. GFS and GEM maybe. But still a whole month to go.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Jiries
04 August 2026 08:55:47
It was a warm night here down to 20.0C this morning now rising to 23.1C so 30?C possible this afterrnoon.
The Beast from the East
04 August 2026 09:34:35

1995 might just hang in there as the king of the heatwave years then.

That was an incredible summer, one I’ll never forget. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

It was an incredible summer, not just weatherwise for me personally. Just finished school and getting ready to go to Uni.  A very exciting time. 

But I dont remember that Summer feeling as unpleasantly hot as the current one.  I'm still living in the same house with the same problems with poor insulation and heat trapping.  This year is far worse.  I've never sweated so much indoors!

Maybe because I'm just older and fatter!


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

Retron
04 August 2026 09:57:15

It was an incredible summer, not just weatherwise for me personally. Just finished school and getting ready to go to Uni.  A very exciting time. 

But I dont remember that Summer feeling as unpleasantly hot as the current one.  I'm still living in the same house with the same problems with poor insulation and heat trapping.  This year is far worse.  I've never sweated so much indoors!

Maybe because I'm just older and fatter!

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

The humidity was much lower back then (as it was in 76), SSTs were lower too. It's a bit chicken-and-egg, but high SSTs mean higher dewpoints, warmer nights and thus more moisture in the air. We've seen multiple days with widespread 20+ dewpoints this summer and that would have been unfathomable even 20 years ago... now it doesn't even get commented on.


Leysdown, north Kent
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
04 August 2026 10:05:00

1995 might just hang in there as the king of the heatwave years then.

That was an incredible summer, one I’ll never forget. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

I used to organise regular local footpath walks, at that time in Kent, with a sketch map of the route. The map for that summer was titled 'Baked Fields and Pastures Brown'.


I can calculate the movements of stars, but not the madness of men - Isaac Newton

Chichester 12m asl

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
04 August 2026 10:20:43

I used to organise regular local footpath walks, at that time in Kent, with a sketch map of the route. The map for that summer was titled 'Baked Fields and Pastures Brown'.

Originally Posted by: DEW 

A great title. At school we sometimes had 'Worms on Concrete'. Spaghetti Bolognese on toast. Dried like pastures brown.


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

Rob K
04 August 2026 10:45:44

1995 might just hang in there as the king of the heatwave years then.

That was an incredible summer, one I’ll never forget. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

Today looks nailed on to reach 30C again (already some rounded 30s in the east) which would then equal the record. And I would be utterly astonished if we then failed to reach 30C again this year. I am fairly sure we will get to 40 days of 30C+ before the year is out.

I'll update my list from the Daily Weather Summaries once July and August are published (seems to be at the beginning of the month "n+2", as they have just released the June ones).


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Bertwhistle
04 August 2026 11:22:38
Above 27°C here, unexpectedly (we should have had the cold front past us by now).

GFS 6z offering a week-long heatwave starting Saturday, with a 37°C peak in NW Kent.

Edit: GFS has finished - a one or two day cool off then a further heatwave sets up until the end of the run.

Just noting it- await the ENS for greater interest.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Rob K
04 August 2026 12:47:54
I've updated my spreadsheet with the values from the Met Office daily summaries for the whole year up to the end of June (actually a good use case for AI, feeding it the PDFs to extract the relevant values, saved a lot of time!)

Quite a few corrections where some high values on Starling's Roost have been discounted, and also several manual stations that were higher than what I had (Faversham/Brogdale has featured a few times, so it is still reporting).

I still only make it 19 32C+ days though (including yesterday), and 33 30C+ days (including today). So the Met must be counting an extra one of each, presumably from a manual station in July. All will become clear in a month's time I guess!


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

White Meadows
04 August 2026 13:12:23

I think we should overtake 1995 soon. Heatwave 6 looks on track.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Heatwave 5 is mid August, no? So no.6 would need to come later on.

Ally Pally Snowman
04 August 2026 13:42:17

Heatwave 5 is mid August, no? So no.6 would need to come later on.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

Technically what we have now is heatwave 5 and next week 6.

Not that it really matters as this summer the heatwaves have just blended together 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Bertwhistle
04 August 2026 13:45:19

Heatwave 5 is mid August, no? So no.6 would need to come later on.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

It varies place to place, actually. For us, today just marks the end of number 4, so yes, we await 5 (not necessarily happily). 1 in May, a longer one in June and 1 in July, then one that ends today according to the Hampshire 3 day 27° rule. This one doesn't really feel like one. But the July one ran from 5th to 17th, and had 3 days just over 27°. Had the later 2 of those been .4 of a degree cooler, we would have had 2 heatwaves during that period instead of one protracted one. There must be places locally with lower maxima.

Also, some places have had short bursts of heat outside of our 'heatwaves' here that might have met the criteria, including places that only need to manage 26 for 3 days.

So some people will almost certainly be heading towards #6.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
04 August 2026 13:47:17
I’m 

Technically what we have now is heatwave 5 and next week 6.

Not that it really matters as this summer the heatwaves have just blended together 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

I’d call it a regime. We’ve been under a heatwave regime (or a “warm settled regime”) since mid June. Within that there have been a number of individual heatwave events. 

I wouldn’t include late May in the same regime because there were two weeks of proper unsettled mobile weather between it and the June heatwave. But perhaps it sits within the 2026 warm weather “superstructure”.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
The Beast from the East
04 August 2026 13:53:13

The humidity was much lower back then (as it was in 76), SSTs were lower too. It's a bit chicken-and-egg, but high SSTs mean higher dewpoints, warmer nights and thus more moisture in the air. We've seen multiple days with widespread 20+ dewpoints this summer and that would have been unfathomable even 20 years ago... now it doesn't even get commented on.

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Indeed, the nights this summer have been unbearable.  Something I dont remember in 1995 or even 2006. 


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

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