The Weather Outlook

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johncs2016
01 July 2026 07:50:05
As we have just entered into yet another brand new month, it's now time for another new thread. In a way though, these threads are feeling more and more like a complete waste of time as our rainfall totals are always consistently below our 1991-2020 average for the month in question now and I can't even remember the last time that we actually had a properly wet month here (I think you have to go all the way back to the spring of 2024 for that as far as I can remember).

Even last winter when quite a number of areas were being flooded out in other parts of the UK with that being a very wet winter across the UK more generally, we still somehow managed to get away with a drier than average winter even then and it seems to be that in every single year now, we are always in the process of making up an overall deficit which in the end, never actually ends being made up, yet we're continually being told that according to climate scientists, we are actually getting more rain overall as a result of climate change although our drier spells are becoming much longer with more serious droughts.

This then raises another question for me because if it is true that rainfall totals are increasing overall, why is that not happening here in Edinburgh where I live (this is now our second year in a row with an overall rainfall deficit and even the totals from the year before that were propped up mostly by the events of the very wet spring which we had in that year)?

For all it is worth though, I have created this thread for this month and to honest, I'm expecting anything to change this month with the model output pointing towards at least one more heatwave ahead possibly even by as early as next week and when that happens, that usually also means yet more dry weather as well. Of course, some places could end up being wetter than average but I would imagine that this would be more likely to be locations which are highly impacted by any thunderstorms which crop up, and which can generate up to a month or so's rainfall in just a single event. That can be enough to result in that month being technically wetter than average in that particular location, but with the totals for that month being highly skewed by that one particular event within what is otherwise a very dry month there.

Regardless of how this month pans out though, this is the very thread for reporting those all important rainfall totals for this month in your month, as well lending any further discussions about this month's rainfall which isn't drought related (there is a separate thread for that).


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

johncs2016
02 July 2026 07:38:12
The latest rainfall data for Edinburgh Gogarbank is as follows:

Data For Recent Days

Total since 10 am BST (09:00 UTC) yesterday morning: 2.0 mm (as at 6:40 am BST (05:40 UTC) this morning on Thursday 2 July 2026)

Monthly Data

Total for this month so far: 2.0 mm (2.8% of 1991-2020 July average)

Number of rain days during this month: 1 (8.8% of 1991-2020 July average)

Number of dry days during this month: 0

Seasonal Data

Total for this summer so far: 51.6 mm (24.0% of 1991-2020 summer average)

Number of rain days during this summer: 13 (38.6% of 1991-2020 summer average)

Number of dry days during this summer: 16

Annual Data

Total for this year so far: 303.0 mm (38.6% of 1991-2020 annual average)

Number of rain days during this year: 78 (56.8% of 1991-2020 annual average)

Number of dry days during this year: 71

Note

This data has been obtained from https://www.ogimet.com  in raw BUFR format, and then converted into a more readable form by my own python script.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

johncs2016
04 July 2026 05:56:22
The latest rainfall data for Edinburgh Gogarbank is as follows:

Data For Recent Days

Total since 10 am BST (09:00 UTC) yesterday morning: 2.0 mm (as at 5:40 am BST (04:40 UTC) this morning on Saturday 4 July 2026)

Monthly Data

Total for this month so far: 4.0 mm (5.6% of 1991-2020 July average)

Number of rain days during this month: 2 (17.6% of 1991-2020 July average)

Number of dry days during this month: 1

Seasonal Data

Total for this summer so far: 53.6 mm (24.9% of 1991-2020 summer average)

Number of rain days during this summer: 14 (41.5% of 1991-2020 summer average)

Number of dry days during this summer: 17

Annual Data

Total for this year so far: 305.0 mm (38.9% of 1991-2020 annual average)

Number of rain days during this year: 79 (57.5% of 1991-2020 annual average)

Number of dry days during this year: 72

Note

This data has been obtained from https://www.ogimet.com  in raw BUFR format, and then converted into a more readable form by my own python script.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

johncs2016
06 July 2026 08:03:54
The latest rainfall data for Edinburgh Gogarbank is as follows:

Data For Recent Days

Total since 10 am BST (09:00 UTC) yesterday morning: 1.8 mm (as at 7:40 am BST (06:40 UTC) this morning on Monday 6 July 2026)

Monthly Data

Total for this month so far: 5.8 mm (8.1% of 1991-2020 July average)

Number of rain days during this month: 3 (26.3% of 1991-2020 July average)

Number of dry days during this month: 2

Seasonal Data

Total for this summer so far: 55.4 mm (25.7% of 1991-2020 summer average)

Number of rain days during this summer: 15 (44.5% of 1991-2020 summer average)

Number of dry days during this summer: 18

Annual Data

Total for this year so far: 306.8 mm (39.1% of 1991-2020 annual average)

Number of rain days during this year: 80 (58.2% of 1991-2020 annual average)

Number of dry days during this year: 73

Note

This data has been obtained from https://www.ogimet.com  in raw BUFR format, and then converted into a more readable form by my own python script.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

Bertwhistle
06 July 2026 15:36:20
No July rainfall here yet, although the roads are wet looking from tarmac melting.
Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

fairweather
07 July 2026 10:21:00
Last rainfall was June 27th with 1.4mm. Before that was a 15mm from an intense showery outbreak on June 23rd. Then back to the 11th June which was the end of the last wet spell which was the highest amount since March. YTD 295mm.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Tim A
07 July 2026 10:30:07
1mm this month from bits of drizzle. 


Tim

NW Leeds

187m asl

 My PWS 

johncs2016
07 July 2026 18:48:28
The latest rainfall data for Edinburgh Gogarbank is as follows:

Data For Recent Days

Total since 10 am BST (09:00 UTC) this morning: 1.4 mm (as at 6:40 pm BST (17:40 UTC) this evening on Tuesday 7 July 2026)

Monthly Data

Total for this month so far: 7.2 mm (10.0% of 1991-2020 July average)

Number of rain days during this month: 4 (35.1% of 1991-2020 July average)

Number of dry days during this month: 3

Seasonal Data

Total for this summer so far: 56.8 mm (26.4% of 1991-2020 summer average)

Number of rain days during this summer: 16 (47.5% of 1991-2020 summer average)

Number of dry days during this summer: 19

Annual Data

Total for this year so far: 308.2 mm (39.3% of 1991-2020 annual average)

Number of rain days during this year: 81 (58.9% of 1991-2020 annual average)

Number of dry days during this year: 74

Note

This data has been obtained from https://www.ogimet.com  in raw BUFR format, and then converted into a more readable form by my own python script.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

johncs2016
25 July 2026 09:24:57
The normal purpose of these threads is for members to post their monthly rainfalls so far for the month in question, and their final totals for that month at the end of it.

However, there hasn't actually been any rain falling just lately and this has resulted in there being nothing for anyone to post on here. Since I don't really want to see this thread completely disappearing into the abyss as a result, I thought that I'd open this thread up a bit further by posting only last night's totals from the cold front which moved through here last night. Furthermore, if there is anything which you might find interesting in terms of this month's rainfall patterns which isn't drought related, please feel free to post that on here.

This could still be your rainfall totals so far if you've actually had any rain, or this thread could be used as an extension to the MO thread to give an indication of what the models are saying in terms of how this month's rainfall pattern may or may not change. Since we are almost at the end of the month now, that will also apply to future monthly threads for August onwards.

I have to say as well, that last night's rain didn't amount to much. In Edinburgh, this amounted to just a measly 0.6 mm at Edinburgh Gogarbank and 0.6 mm at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh. Down here in the Scottish Borders, just a measly 0.2 mm of rain was recorded from this particular event at Charterhall.

However, this has been the first time since St. Swithin's Day that there has been any recorded rainfall here so even with these very small amounts, this has still been enough to confirm that the St.Swithin's Day legend has now finally been broken here at long last after nearly 10 days. Whether it has actually rained on St. Swithin's Day or not in any given year, this is the longest period of time that I can remember without that legend being broken. For that reason, it would be interesting to know whether or not there are any official records for the longest period of time without that legend being broken, and whether or not you believe that there might be a chance of at least one of those records being broken this year.

Last night's rainfall was the first recorded rainfall at Edinburgh Gogarbank since 11 July 2026 which is a whole 2 weeks ago and since the above totals were all less than 1.0 mm, it continues to remain the case that the daily rainfall total at Edinburgh Gogarbank has still not exceeded 1.0 mm since 9 July 2026.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

johncs2016
26 July 2026 12:22:04
The latest rainfall data for Edinburgh Gogarbank is as follows:

Data For Recent Days

24 hour total up to 10 am BST (09:00 UTC) this morning: 9.4 mm

Total since 10 am BST (09:00 UTC) this morning: 2.2 mm (as at 12:40 pm BST (11:40 UTC) this afternoon on Sunday 26 July 2026)

Monthly Data

Total for this month so far: 20.8 mm (28.9% of 1991-2020 July average)

Number of rain days during this month: 6 (52.7% of 1991-2020 July average)

Number of dry days during this month: 17

Seasonal Data

Total for this summer so far: 70.4 mm (32.7% of 1991-2020 summer average)

Number of rain days during this summer: 18 (53.4% of 1991-2020 summer average)

Number of dry days during this summer: 33

Annual Data

Total for this year so far: 321.8 mm (41.0% of 1991-2020 annual average)

Number of rain days during this year: 83 (60.4% of 1991-2020 annual average)

Number of dry days during this year: 88

Note

This data has been obtained from https://www.ogimet.com  in raw BUFR format, and then converted into a more readable form by my own python script.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

idj20
26 July 2026 12:55:56
Had the lightest spittle of rain this morning but since the rain gauge on my Davis Vantage station reads 0.0 mm so far for today, technically the totally rain-free July still stands on record as far as my back yard is concerned. 
Home location: Folkestone Harbour.
tierradelfuego
26 July 2026 15:13:59

Had the lightest spittle of rain this morning but since the rain gauge on my Davis Vantage station reads 0.0 mm so far for today, technically the totally rain-free July still stands on record as far as my back yard is concerned. 

Originally Posted by: idj20 

Likewise here, probably 5 drops per paving slab. I'm not sure what qualifies as a Trace on the MetOffice stats.


Bucklebury

West Berkshire Downs AONB

135m ASL

VP2 with daytime FARS

Rainfall collector separated at ground level

Anemometer separated above roof level

WeatherLink Live (Byles Green Crew )

Tim A
27 July 2026 06:54:50
2mm for the month now after 0.5mm over the weekend. 
Tim

NW Leeds

187m asl

 My PWS 

redmoons
27 July 2026 13:45:09
0.3mm for the months total and it fell in one shower on sunday.
NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
27 July 2026 13:47:59
No rain here since the 20th June. Yesterday's smattering of unmeasurable drizzle doesn't count for me.
Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

Rob K
27 July 2026 19:07:15
Zero measurable rainfall here since June 26th. I did experience some rain in Yorkshire over the weekend, as well as the novelty value of seeing actual green grass! Having said that, I've been going to Swaledale for that event since 2016 and never seen the river so low. You could practically step across it in the village.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

johncs2016
28 July 2026 10:44:45
The latest rainfall data for Edinburgh Gogarbank is as follows:

Data For Recent Days

24 hour total up to 10 am BST (09:00 UTC) this morning: 2.2 mm

Total since 10 am BST (09:00 UTC) this morning: 0.2 mm (as at 10:30 am BST (09:30 UTC) this morning on Tuesday 28 July 2026)

Monthly Data

Total for this month so far: 23.2 mm (32.3% of 1991-2020 July average)

Number of rain days during this month: 7 (61.5% of 1991-2020 July average)

Number of dry days during this month: 17

As there are not enough days left in this month to bring the number of rain days up to the 1991-2020 July average, this month will go down as being drier than average in terms of the number of official rain days, regardless of what happens between now and the end of this month.

Seasonal Data

Total for this summer so far: 72.8 mm (33.8% of 1991-2020 summer average)

Number of rain days during this summer: 19 (56.4% of 1991-2020 summer average)

Number of dry days during this summer: 33

Annual Data

Total for this year so far: 324.2 mm (41.3% of 1991-2020 annual average)

Number of rain days during this year: 84 (61.1% of 1991-2020 annual average)

Number of dry days during this year: 88

Note

This data has been obtained fromhttps://www.ogimet.com  in raw BUFR format, and then converted into a more readable form by my own python script.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

fairweather
28 July 2026 19:01:14
Looks like Glasgow and possibly Edinburgh have got a wonderful streamer judging by the coverage of the Commonwealth Games in Glasgow. Can't tell you how envious I am - it looks absolutely fabulous - unless you are an athlete. 
S.Essex, 42m ASL
johncs2016
29 July 2026 20:11:22
The latest rainfall data for Edinburgh Gogarbank is as follows:

Data For Recent Days

24 hour total up to 10 am BST (09:00 UTC) this morning: 19.2 mm

This makes yesterday our wettest day of this entire year so far without me even being there to witness that but for those who were, it's just Sod's Law that this has to happen in the summer, the very time of year when we would traditionally want it to be drier than average.

Total since 10 am BST (09:00 UTC) this morning: 2.6 mm (as at 7:40 pm BST (18:40 UTC) this evening on Wednesday 29 July 2026)

Monthly Data

Total for this month so far: 44.8 mm (62.4% of 1991-2020 July average)

Number of rain days during this month: 9 (79.0% of 1991-2020 July average)

Number of dry days during this month: 17

Seasonal Data

Total for this summer so far: 94.4 mm (43.8% of 1991-2020 summer average)

Number of rain days during this summer: 21 (62.3% of 1991-2020 summer average)

Number of dry days during this summer: 33

Annual Data

Total for this year so far: 345.8 mm (44.1% of 1991-2020 annual average)

Number of rain days during this year: 86 (62.6% of 1991-2020 annual average)

Number of dry days during this year: 88

Note

This data has been obtained from https://www.ogimet.com  in raw BUFR format, and then converted into a more readable form by my own python script.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

johncs2016
30 July 2026 14:13:20
The latest rainfall data for Edinburgh Gogarbank is as follows:

Data For Recent Days

24 hour total up to 10 am BST (09:00 UTC) this morning: 4.2 mm

Total since 10 am BST (09:00 UTC) this morning: 0.0 mm (as at 2:20 pm BST (13:20 UTC) this afternoon on Thursday 30 July 2026)

Monthly Data

Total for this month so far: 46.4 mm (64.6% of 1991-2020 July average)

Number of rain days during this month: 9 (79.0% of 1991-2020 July average)

Number of dry days during this month: 18

Seasonal Data

Total for this summer so far: 96.0 mm (44.6% of 1991-2020 summer average)

Number of rain days during this summer: 21 (62.3% of 1991-2020 summer average)

Number of dry days during this summer: 34

Annual Data

Total for this year so far: 347.4 mm (44.3% of 1991-2020 annual average)

Number of rain days during this year: 86 (62.6% of 1991-2020 annual average)

Number of dry days during this year: 89

Note

This data has been obtained from https://www.ogimet.com  in raw BUFR format, and then converted into a more readable form by my own python script.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

Retron
31 July 2026 16:37:48
With just a few hours to go, it looks like a bit fat zero here. The only rain was a minute or so of drizzle which didn't even properly dampen the ground, no petrichor smell and nowhere near enough to tip the gauge on the weather station. (I've been keeping it clear of cobwebs, petals, dead insects etc, so it will work whenever we eventually get some rain).

A completely rainless month is pretty rare. 


Leysdown, north Kent
Hungry Tiger
31 July 2026 16:46:31

With just a few hours to go, it looks like a bit fat zero here. The only rain was a minute or so of drizzle which didn't even properly dampen the ground, no petrichor smell and nowhere near enough to tip the gauge on the weather station. (I've been keeping it clear of cobwebs, petals, dead insects etc, so it will work whenever we eventually get some rain).

A completely rainless month is pretty rare. 

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Same story for me Darren. Nothing came out of last night's cold front for me. So a genuine completely rainless month.  Incredible really.  🙂🙂🙂🙂


Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



Hungry Tiger
31 July 2026 16:48:24

With just a few hours to go, it looks like a bit fat zero here. The only rain was a minute or so of drizzle which didn't even properly dampen the ground, no petrichor smell and nowhere near enough to tip the gauge on the weather station. (I've been keeping it clear of cobwebs, petals, dead insects etc, so it will work whenever we eventually get some rain).

A completely rainless month is pretty rare. 

Originally Posted by: Retron 

I think for me it's the first time I can remember a totally rainless month. We did have a couple in the 1970s,  but not in my area. They do occur. But they are rare. 🙂🙂🙂🙂


Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



tierradelfuego
31 July 2026 19:56:18

I think for me it's the first time I can remember a totally rainless month. We did have a couple in the 1970s,  but not in my area. They do occur. But they are rare. 🙂🙂🙂🙂

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

Likewise here, first I can remember, 39 days up today. I don't know if 76 managed it as was only 2 so couldn't afford a VP2 back then 😂

I was slightly surprised yesterday's didn't tick over on the gauge, I have been keeping it clean from cobwebs etc so presume it is still working and not stuck.


Bucklebury

West Berkshire Downs AONB

135m ASL

VP2 with daytime FARS

Rainfall collector separated at ground level

Anemometer separated above roof level

WeatherLink Live (Byles Green Crew )

lanky
31 July 2026 20:19:51

I think for me it's the first time I can remember a totally rainless month. We did have a couple in the 1970s,  but not in my area. They do occur. But they are rare. 🙂🙂🙂🙂

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

Just checked my Kew Gardens database of daily rainfall since 1871 and there are no instances of zero rainfall for a whole calendar month

The driest was August 1995 at 0.5mm


Martin

Richmond, Surrey

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