The Weather Outlook

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NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
25 July 2026 08:25:49
Without being there, I get the impression the use of sea water was done in a panic perhaps? It also seems the land managers, presumably knowing the risks, allowed a huge amount of gorse to grow, which has these consequences. A similar event occurred in the Channel Islands this year. Back in the day of wood-fired bread ovens, gorse was a valued oven fuel, and I assume it would rarely have been allowed to get to the growth stage where, if it burns in the open, it's a disaster. I assume the IOW fire was a human-induced affair like most of them. No lightning here.
Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
25 July 2026 08:28:16

Maize once established is pretty drought tolerant as the cover protects the soil and the shape of the plant catches any moisture from rain or heavy dew. Another thing is that when farmers sow maize the normally plough in a large amount of FYM which helps the soil hold moisture as well as providing nutrients.

Originally Posted by: bledur 

It seems to be one of those binary crops, either doing fine despite drought, or totally screwed. Around central France this summer there’s plenty of the latter - dustbowl conditions - but some evidence of the former too and not just in the irrigated valleys.

Jiries will be pleased to know the stinging nettles are dying here in Burgundy, and even the brambles aren’t doing well. It’s making woodland walks much easier than most summers. 

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
bledur
25 July 2026 10:33:18

It seems to be one of those binary crops, either doing fine despite drought, or totally screwed. Around central France this summer there’s plenty of the latter - dustbowl conditions - but some evidence of the former too and not just in the irrigated valleys.

Jiries will be pleased to know the stinging nettles are dying here in Burgundy, and even the brambles aren’t doing well. It’s making woodland walks much easier than most summers. 

Originally Posted by: TimS 

Maize is a crop which you cannot take shortcuts with so has to be done right.

You can often get away with muddling in cereals and grass and get a pretty good result although the agronomists will have a hissy fit.😄

bledur
25 July 2026 10:35:27

Without being there, I get the impression the use of sea water was done in a panic perhaps? It also seems the land managers, presumably knowing the risks, allowed a huge amount of gorse to grow, which has these consequences. A similar event occurred in the Channel Islands this year. Back in the day of wood-fired bread ovens, gorse was a valued oven fuel, and I assume it would rarely have been allowed to get to the growth stage where, if it burns in the open, it's a disaster. I assume the IOW fire was a human-induced affair like most of them. No lightning here.

Originally Posted by: NMA 

That is the current ethos, don't cut anything back , don't burn firebreaks,a year like this and you will get a disaster.

Roger Parsons
25 July 2026 10:51:52
We have just driven across the fens from Cambridge to near Lincoln and the "transect" is very similar, most cereal-type crops cut, most bales being moved, a few combines still flat out, a few balers still working. Everyone seems intent on getting all possible crops harvested. I noticed a couple of large fields being drilled. A couple of fields were being irrigated with a spray. 
RogerP

West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire

Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.

William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830

Matty H
25 July 2026 14:11:21
Blue and yellow stuff on the rainfall radar this afternoon. Problem solved
Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

fairweather
25 July 2026 16:21:08
[img=[img=https://i.postimg.cc/Tp7RKGV8/drought-1.jpg]UserPostedImage

UserPostedImage[img= [img=https://i.postimg.cc/LnCHJRzc/drought-2.jpg]UserPostedImage[img=[url=https://postimg.cc/QH4XFspR][img=https://i.postimg.cc/QH4XFspR/drought-3.jpg][url=https://postimg.cc/QH4XFspR][img]https://i.postimg.cc/QH4XFspR/drought-3.jpg]https://i.postimg.cc/QH4XFspR/drought-3.jpg][url=https://postimg.cc/QH4XFspR]UserPostedImage [/img][img=[url=https://postimg.cc/fJ2wVZx1][img=https://i.postimg.cc/fJ2wVZx1/drought-4.jpg][url=https://postimg.cc/fJ2wVZx1][img]https://i.postimg.cc/fJ2wVZx1/drought-4.jpg]https://i.postimg.cc/fJ2wVZx1/drought-4.jpg][url=https://postimg.cc/fJ2wVZx1]UserPostedImage [/img][img=[url=https://postimg.cc/PP3tChm7][img=https://i.postimg.cc/PP3tChm7/drought-6.jpg][url=https://postimg.cc/PP3tChm7][img]https://i.postimg.cc/PP3tChm7/drought-6.jpg]https://i.postimg.cc/PP3tChm7/drought-6.jpg][url=https://postimg.cc/PP3tChm7]UserPostedImage [/img]

[img=[url=https://postimg.cc/xcx0XYKh][img]https://i.postimg.cc/xcx0XYKh/drought-5.jpg][url=https://postimg.cc/xcx0XYKh]UserPostedImage [/img]

S.Essex, 42m ASL
+5
fairweather
25 July 2026 16:27:15
Still can't get images to post properly or get full screen, even following various instructions or image posting apps.

Anyway supposed to be my dead silver birch tree in drought ravaged garden. Hope nobody has a barbeque next door!

S.Essex, 42m ASL
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
25 July 2026 16:45:10

Still can't get images to post properly or get full screen, even following various instructions or image posting apps.

Anyway supposed to be my dead silver birch tree in drought ravaged garden. Hope nobody has a barbeque next door!

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

You can right-click for 'open in new window' and see it full size. Tedious, though.

It's not the voting that's democracy, it's the counting - Tom Stoppard

Chichester 12m asl

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
25 July 2026 16:47:44
I can see them. The pool looks low. Poor Silver Birch too

I've been in all day waiting for some new trousers from Next and just heard from Evri that my Geo Fence has prevented delivery. WTF. 

Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
25 July 2026 16:49:53
Someone down the road had a full-on BBQ yesterday pm. Lots of smoke and I almost dialled 999. 

Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

+2
Retron
25 July 2026 16:50:07

Still can't get images to post properly or get full screen, even following various instructions or image posting apps.

Anyway supposed to be my dead silver birch tree in drought ravaged garden. Hope nobody has a barbeque next door!

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

It's because postimg.cc does everything it can to steer you to their site.

Normally when you link an image, it's to a direct file - sample.com/photo.jpg, for example. Postimg gives you a fake link (which isn't an image), so they can serve adverts to you. If you use your links, then right click on the photo and open in new tab you'll get the direct link, e.g:

https://postimg.cc/xcx0XYKh  turns into https://i.postimg.cc/nhZMwhMF/drought-5.jpg

...and you can then paste that in, like this.

UserPostedImage

I'm sure there'll be plenty more drought photos to come, as tomorrow's rain has all but gone in the models now. Maybe a few spits and spots but at this rate we'll be lucky if the ground gets damp!

Leysdown, north Kent
+1
Chunky Pea
25 July 2026 17:08:41
Only about 3.0mm here this month so far, with 0.5mm of that falling from the spits and spots of drizzle we had today. Yet, despite this, and the continuously high heat this month, there is no sign of stress in the grass at all. Not even any browning along the verges etc. I'm guessing that the constantly wet spring and constantly high humidity and dew points since May has prevented the ground and soil from drying out too much. 
Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

Windy Willow
25 July 2026 17:49:36

Still can't get images to post properly or get full screen, even following various instructions or image posting apps.

Anyway supposed to be my dead silver birch tree in drought ravaged garden. Hope nobody has a barbeque next door!

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

The difference a county or two makes and a hundred or so miles, The neighboring Birch trees here still have green leaves however all the grass is nice and golden, if you can call it nice!

We've even found a frog taking refuge by the watering can and outside tap, i guess his pond or ditch has mostly dried up.

South Holland, Lincs 5m/16ft ASL

When I saw corruption, I was forced to find truth on my own. I couldn't swallow the hypocrisy.

Barry White

It’s the end of the world as we know it (and I feel fine) - R.E.M.

Jiries
25 July 2026 19:34:51

It seems to be one of those binary crops, either doing fine despite drought, or totally screwed. Around central France this summer there’s plenty of the latter - dustbowl conditions - but some evidence of the former too and not just in the irrigated valleys.

Jiries will be pleased to know the stinging nettles are dying here in Burgundy, and even the brambles aren’t doing well. It’s making woodland walks much easier than most summers. 

Originally Posted by: TimS 

Glad i don't see them growing again in my garden, it just pop up every now and then when rain but since not anymore so very pleasing.  Strangely in summer 2018 with no rain for 2 months the stinging nettles did not die back for some reason.  I think nettles die easier in July and August than May to June which was the case in 2018 after a wet spring.  But come to September 1995 it was full of stinging nettles booming again after so much rain that year then killed off by frosts in October. 

Charmhills
26 July 2026 07:44:22
Flying back over the parts of the UK looks like a desert below.

Since I've been away, 0mm's of rainfall for over 2 weeks plus.

Everywhere is yellow and brown, with some trees dropping their leaves early.

I don't doubt that the rains will come, they always do.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power.

Duane.

Bertwhistle
26 July 2026 11:38:56
First rain of July at about 9.15 this morning, very light, lasted about 20 minutes. Smelt the earth, it wet the tarmac, didn't give the garden a drink though.
Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

+2
Windy Willow
26 July 2026 11:51:56

First rain of July at about 9.15 this morning, very light, lasted about 20 minutes. Smelt the earth, it wet the tarmac, didn't give the garden a drink though.

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

Similar here,ours was just before 9:00 with another short shower not long after. Barely got the ground wet.

South Holland, Lincs 5m/16ft ASL

When I saw corruption, I was forced to find truth on my own. I couldn't swallow the hypocrisy.

Barry White

It’s the end of the world as we know it (and I feel fine) - R.E.M.

Chichesterweatherfan2
26 July 2026 11:52:47
2 minutes of rain here in Chichester….we were inside in church so didn’t see it fall but  when we came out of church, no evidence of any rain whatsoever….so not even a damp squib! 
HighPressureGloom
27 July 2026 09:02:37

Think you are a bit out of touch .Read this to catch up.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/news-and-media/media-centre/weather-and-climate-news/2026/climate-extremes-are-becoming-the-new-normal-for-the-uk 

Originally Posted by: bledur 

Lol yeah sorry I'm really out of touch 🤣🤣 We are now not a temperate Island the global weather patterns have fundamentally changed and we are now akin to Rhodes. I must try keep up. 

Saint Snow
27 July 2026 09:09:05
We've had spells of light rain (with the odd heavy burst) on and off since Saturday evening. I'd say somewhere between 5-10mm in total

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
27 July 2026 14:26:04

We've had spells of light rain (with the odd heavy burst) on and off since Saturday evening. I'd say somewhere between 5-10mm in total

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

It was pretty awful on Sunday morning with something of a wind too. The garden needed a good drink though so this isn't really a complaint and things are looking greener already. One of those NW England specialities where the rain just appears out of nowhere just off the Irish Sea coast, relentlessly drives across the region but none of it ever makes it across the Pennines.

Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

+1
Saint Snow
27 July 2026 14:30:04

It was pretty awful on Sunday morning with something of a wind too. The garden needed a good drink though so this isn't really a complaint and things are looking greener already. One of those NW England specialities where the rain just appears out of nowhere just off the Irish Sea coast, relentlessly drives across the region but none of it ever makes it across the Pennines.

Originally Posted by: Col 

Yep.

Can be good on the very occasional cold and unstable NW'ly in winter, and the weekend's rain was most welcome, but usually 'fart in a spacesuit' levels of desirability

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Hungry Tiger
27 July 2026 20:44:05
Some rainfall stats for this July. Source, with acknowledgements.  🙂🙂🙂

JULY - DRY

Taking an updated  look at dry Julys, as so far (up to yesterday) this July is the driest on record, with only 4.04mm (England and Wales). This July will finish top of the list below.

Original TAW research

As usual we are using the Met Offices EWP records, and split the indexes/rankings up into equal thirds, good/average/bad etc.

The top 20 driest Julys since 1930 are -

2022 - 22.6mm

1976 - 23.7mm

1955 - 26.1mm

1999 - 26.3mm

1935 - 27.1mm

1984 - 28.6mm

1970 - 30.1mm

1982 - 33.9mm

1979 - 34.1mm

1952 - 34.7mm

The next top ten - 1995, 1989, 2006, 1983, 2018, 2016, 1996, 1971, 1994, 1948

ENSO

-1 was El Nino

- 5 were La Nina

- 12 were Neutral

A clear signal there that an ENSO neutral phase is more likely to produce a dry July. El Nino isnt most conducive for a dry July.

MJO – Only phase 6 supposed to be a dry phase although 4 and 8 are benign.

Of the qualifying years (1974 onwards) phase 1 = 4, 2 = 4, 3 = 5, 4 = 5, 5 = 4, 6 = 3, 7 = 4, 8 = 3 . Well clearly this doesn’t support the dry phase theory. Thats a pretty even scatter.

JULY TEMPS

- 1 was also cold (1970)

- 3 were average

- 16 were warm (no surprises)

TAWs JULY INDEX

- 0 were bad

- 3 were average

- 16 were good

As we would expect, a dry July is likely to be good and warm.

August

- 1 was cold

- 7 were average

- 12 were warm

- 8 were dry

- 8 were average

- 4 were wet (1977, 1952, 1971, 1948)

Dry Julys then  are likely to turn wetter in August, but unlikely to be too wet? They also are unlikely to have a cold August.

TAWs AUGUST INDEX

- 4 following Augusts were poor (1977, 1999, 1971, 1948)

- 5 were average

- 11 were good

Some years can flip to cold and wet, but generally a dry July leads to a good August, with only a 20% chance of it being poor.

Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



+1
Matty H
27 July 2026 21:00:10

Some rainfall stats for this July. Source, with acknowledgements.  🙂🙂🙂

JULY - DRY

Taking an updated  look at dry Julys, as so far (up to yesterday) this July is the driest on record, with only 4.04mm (England and Wales). This July will finish top of the list below.

Original TAW research

As usual we are using the Met Offices EWP records, and split the indexes/rankings up into equal thirds, good/average/bad etc.

The top 20 driest Julys since 1930 are -

2022 - 22.6mm

1976 - 23.7mm

1955 - 26.1mm

1999 - 26.3mm

1935 - 27.1mm

1984 - 28.6mm

1970 - 30.1mm

1982 - 33.9mm

1979 - 34.1mm

1952 - 34.7mm

The next top ten - 1995, 1989, 2006, 1983, 2018, 2016, 1996, 1971, 1994, 1948

ENSO

-1 was El Nino

- 5 were La Nina

- 12 were Neutral

A clear signal there that an ENSO neutral phase is more likely to produce a dry July. El Nino isnt most conducive for a dry July.

MJO – Only phase 6 supposed to be a dry phase although 4 and 8 are benign.

Of the qualifying years (1974 onwards) phase 1 = 4, 2 = 4, 3 = 5, 4 = 5, 5 = 4, 6 = 3, 7 = 4, 8 = 3 . Well clearly this doesn’t support the dry phase theory. Thats a pretty even scatter.

JULY TEMPS

- 1 was also cold (1970)

- 3 were average

- 16 were warm (no surprises)

TAWs JULY INDEX

- 0 were bad

- 3 were average

- 16 were good

As we would expect, a dry July is likely to be good and warm.

August

- 1 was cold

- 7 were average

- 12 were warm

- 8 were dry

- 8 were average

- 4 were wet (1977, 1952, 1971, 1948)

Dry Julys then  are likely to turn wetter in August, but unlikely to be too wet? They also are unlikely to have a cold August.

TAWs AUGUST INDEX

- 4 following Augusts were poor (1977, 1999, 1971, 1948)

- 5 were average

- 11 were good

Some years can flip to cold and wet, but generally a dry July leads to a good August, with only a 20% chance of it being poor.

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

That’s interesting. Thanks for sharing  

Hopefully the models start to reflect the MetO extended outlook with more hot, dry, summer weather during August

Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

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