The Weather Outlook

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TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
19 July 2026 12:18:55

It offers 3½ minutes less daylight per day, on average, so even if the heat returns it won't feel quite as severe. (By comparison, we've lost 37 minutes of daylight down here in the last month, we'll lose that in 10 days in August).

I wouldn't be surprised to see another hot spell at some point, the atmosphere seems primed for it this year. Any hurricanes that head our way though will no doubt make it less predictable, they always add a bit of chaos to the forecasts!

Originally Posted by: Retron 

The super El Niño should mean a very weak / non-existent hurricane season, so less likelihood of interference than most years. 

Interesting to note that strong hurricane seasons tend to correlate with warm settled early Autumns, as the low pressure in the Atlantic acts as a pump for the AH. A couple of years ago I ran a correlation between the two (ACE and Sept rainfall) for a vineyard blog, and the pattern was quite clear. So that might imply a more unsettled September this year, all being equal. I hope not. Need a good Sept for the grapes. 


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Bolty
19 July 2026 13:46:58
July has been an exceptional month even up here. Whilst it hasn't seen overly notable high temperatures locally (apart from one high over 33°C), the persistence of warmth and sunshine has definitely been notable. Even today, it's low-20s and sunshine, which still feels more than respectable. It's been a great summer month, if I'm honest.
Scott

Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.

My weather station 

Rob K
19 July 2026 16:52:44
26C has been reached again today - and today is likely to be the coolest day until at least Saturday, or maybe longer.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

johncs2016
19 July 2026 16:58:38

July has been an exceptional month even up here. Whilst it hasn't seen overly notable high temperatures locally (apart from one high over 33°C), the persistence of warmth and sunshine has definitely been notable. Even today, it's low-20s and sunshine, which still feels more than respectable. It's been a great summer month, if I'm honest.

Originally Posted by: Bolty 

It might seem like an exceptional month at the moment but with ongoing climate change, that is increasingly becoming more of the norm and so, there has to come a point eventually when a month like this one is then just seen as just being a typical normal month, rather than one which is great or exceptional.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

tierradelfuego
19 July 2026 17:57:38

It might seem like an exceptional month at the moment but with ongoing climate change, that is increasingly becoming more of the norm and so, there has to come a point eventually when a month like this one is then just seen as just being a typical normal month, rather than one which is great or exceptional.

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 

I'm certain there will become that point as you mention and I know down here in the South has been exceptional, however I would hope and think it will be a good few decades before this comes the norm.

Our 2018 July was what I considered exceptional with an average daily max of 26.5c, that was well above anything except the well-known record anomalous years. This year will undoubtedly top that, and probably easily.

Will this year be beaten? Yes I'm sure it will but to become the norm I think will take time... just my view.


Bucklebury

West Berkshire Downs AONB

135m ASL

VP2 with daytime FARS

Rainfall collector separated at ground level

Anemometer separated above roof level

WeatherLink Live (Byles Green Crew )

Bertwhistle
19 July 2026 18:44:32
First day below 23°C since June 15th. Our garden is so abundantly planted and thick with vegetation at all heights that it is usually 2-3C cooler than the neighbours or any nearby stations including Otterbourne WW and Southampton airport.

A exceptional run of temperatures.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

johncs2016
19 July 2026 18:47:57

I'm certain there will become that point as you mention and I know down here in the South has been exceptional, however I would hope and think it will be a good few decades before this comes the norm.

Our 2018 July was what I considered exceptional with an average daily max of 26.5c, that was well above anything except the well-known record anomalous years. This year will undoubtedly top that, and probably easily.

Will this year be beaten? Yes I'm sure it will but to become the norm I think will take time... just my view.

Originally Posted by: tierradelfuego 

Yes, that’s probably right enough.

However, we’re already at the stage where we just don’t get changeable weather any more like what we used to and that in itself is already quite a massive change in what is climatically a very short period of time.

Our summers used to be predominantly cool and unsettled. In those days, we would get the odd decent one with 1976 being just one example of that, but those types of summers were very rare back then. Nowadays though, that is no longer the case.

 Even today, I still can’t say that we never get any changeable weather but more often than not now, we keep on getting stuck under high pressure which then brings the same weather pattern for weeks to even months on end, and that never used to be the case.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

Jiries
19 July 2026 19:01:45

The super El Niño should mean a very weak / non-existent hurricane season, so less likelihood of interference than most years. 

Interesting to note that strong hurricane seasons tend to correlate with warm settled early Autumns, as the low pressure in the Atlantic acts as a pump for the AH. A couple of years ago I ran a correlation between the two (ACE and Sept rainfall) for a vineyard blog, and the pattern was quite clear. So that might imply a more unsettled September this year, all being equal. I hope not. Need a good Sept for the grapes. 

Originally Posted by: TimS 

Sept 1995 was very wet so might be a repeat then very dry October that semi parched appear again until early November gone back to green. It was the shortest Autumn ever recorded with first winter snowfall came late November and summery weather ended end of October. 

Rob K
20 July 2026 08:54:32
This morning's GFS goes quite cool for a couple of days next week so looks like the chance of an entire month reaching 25C (or even 26C) could be in the balance. 26.6 was yesterday's max and we look like matching/beating that until at least Friday.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Rob K
20 July 2026 14:17:39

27.4C was the UK max yesterday which is the lowest max of the month so far!

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

A slight update on this, Westonzoyland actually reached 27.6C on the 18th.

https://wow.metoffice.gov.uk/observations/details/20260719k4ph67cd9ce9dcu6xusa4hpdme 

27.0C reached today at Bramham - not a regular "warmest place" so still just one day has failed to reach 27 this month.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Tim A
21 July 2026 09:01:07

A slight update on this, Westonzoyland actually reached 27.6C on the 18th.

https://wow.metoffice.gov.uk/observations/details/20260719k4ph67cd9ce9dcu6xusa4hpdme 

27.0C reached today at Bramham - not a regular "warmest place" so still just one day has failed to reach 27 this month.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Interesting to see Bramham hit 27c. On Sunday evening I complained to the Met Office about their regional forecast for Monday asking what they were playing at with ' Largely dry and cloudy Maximum temperature 19c'.  

My family read that forecast and were thinking of not going to the outdoor Lido. I managed to convince them it would be wrong and as it happens I was correct,  long sunny spells and very warm.  The Automated even showed warm temps so no idea what the forecaster was thinking, 8c out ! . But it's a regular occurrence, I think they might sometimes not know Yorkshire isn't in NW Scotland. 

My main point to the Met Office is you can't have the automated showing 25c and text forecast showing 19c max! 


Tim

NW Leeds

187m asl

 My PWS 

Jiries
21 July 2026 16:11:07
Been reading a lot of complaints from Londoners and SE users as today they been overcast with N Sea clouds?  Erm, how this can happen with high SSTs or is fake news about those?  Also why it doesn't clear at 11am which is the absolute max time and never later than 11am when I lived in Surrey which is far closer to the N Sea.   Didn't reasch here but very dirty skies and dirty air source as well.
Bertwhistle
21 July 2026 16:58:28

Been reading a lot of complaints from Londoners and SE users as today they been overcast with N Sea clouds?  Erm, how this can happen with high SSTs or is fake news about those?  Also why it doesn't clear at 11am which is the absolute max time and never later than 11am when I lived in Surrey which is far closer to the N Sea.   Didn't reasch here but very dirty skies and dirty air source as well.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

Yeah London is quite a grim place


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

fairweather
21 July 2026 17:13:44
18th July was lowest max for well over a month at 22.4C, and cooler still today at 22.3C. It has been cloudy all day and I imagine the least sunshine for weeks if not months. A very pleasant respite till the next one although the mostly sunny and breezy days with temps in the mid to high 2o's have been a joy. Hot but still workable and cool evenings and nights.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Rob K
21 July 2026 19:51:24
28.2C at Ross-on-Wye today, still quite respectable summer temperatures. Only one day this month has failed to reach 80F somewhere, and that was 79.9!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
21 July 2026 21:52:10
I don't suppose that this is exceptionally rare, but it's interesting to see that within the southwest region, Winchcombe (Sudeley Castle) on Mon 20th recorded both the lowest min (6.6C) and highest max (27.2C). [MetO daily extremes]
I can calculate the movements of stars, but not the madness of men - Isaac Newton

Chichester 12m asl

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
22 July 2026 07:46:58

I don't suppose that this is exceptionally rare, but it's interesting to see that within the southwest region, Winchcombe (Sudeley Castle) on Mon 20th recorded both the lowest min (6.6C) and highest max (27.2C). [MetO daily extremes]

Originally Posted by: DEW 

Taking of low temperatures, I recorded 4.8C at the vineyard on the 20th. Coldest July night in my record. 


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Rob K
22 July 2026 10:13:51

28.2C at Ross-on-Wye today, still quite respectable summer temperatures. Only one day this month has failed to reach 80F somewhere, and that was 79.9!

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Add half a degree to that: Westonzoyland reported 28.7C max for yesterday on today's 9am update.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
22 July 2026 17:44:52
Question: it’s going to have been a week that the UK hasn’t achieved 30C. Model output suggests we could be hitting and surpassing it next week. 

So does that mean it’s time for “school holidays heatwave thread”, or is this just a continuation?

In the old days the cool spell between heatwaves would see a few days in the low 20s or even the teens. Now we have a couple of days scarcely hitting 27 or 28 and that’s our interregnum. 


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Rob K
22 July 2026 18:49:04

Question: it’s going to have been a week that the UK hasn’t achieved 30C. Model output suggests we could be hitting and surpassing it next week. 

So does that mean it’s time for “school holidays heatwave thread”, or is this just a continuation?

In the old days the cool spell between heatwaves would see a few days in the low 20s or even the teens. Now we have a couple of days scarcely hitting 27 or 28 and that’s our interregnum. 

Originally Posted by: TimS 

28.2 at Kew the highest for today that I have seen so far. Only one day this month has failed to reach 27C (or 80F+ in old money) and all but 4 have been 28C+.

Friday and Saturday this week could both scrape a 30C. Sunday is looking like the potential spoiler with only 25C on GFS and Arpege, 26C on UKV. Although as far as I am aware we have never had a calendar month with every day hitting 25C, so that would still be something of note.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Retron
23 July 2026 05:34:25
Round 4 looks increasingly likely IMO, GFS, GEM and MetO all have 18-20 850s for a time next week, GEFS shows good support, and the GFS op this morning has 31/35/36 here for next Tuesday to Thursday...
Leysdown, north Kent
Jiries
23 July 2026 06:58:37

Round 4 looks increasingly likely IMO, GFS, GEM and MetO all have 18-20 850s for a time next week, GEFS shows good support, and the GFS op this morning has 31/35/36 here for next Tuesday to Thursday...

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Yes hope this weekend breakdown to clear the clouds out first to order those higher temps in full wall to wall sunshine.  Should see up to 33 to 34 here next week if sunny.

The Beast from the East
23 July 2026 09:24:43

Yes hope this weekend breakdown to clear the clouds out first to order those higher temps in full wall to wall sunshine.  Should see up to 33 to 34 here next week if sunny.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

Some rain for the grass would be nice first!  Its like a sandpit.  There is no hosepipe ban here, but nearly everyone has a water meter now, so that seems to dramatically stop sprinkler use.


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

Jiries
23 July 2026 13:04:12

Some rain for the grass would be nice first!  Its like a sandpit.  There is no hosepipe ban here, but nearly everyone has a water meter now, so that seems to dramatically stop sprinkler use.

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

I don't expect any rain here but the cloud break down I am totally expecting to clear this out.  In Chicago when I stayed there they use sprinklers every day even rain or storm forecasts, I think is done by a timer so to turn on regardless the weather,.  I been told that they must keep the grass green or get fine and in winter to keep snow clear of paths.  Unlike in here you don't own the paths and grass verges but there you do own it right to the road boundary so you are responsible for this to clear snow, cut grass and water them.  Some household put nice flowers or rocky display at the corner junctions.

Bertwhistle
23 July 2026 14:21:14
I think there should be a new thread for a new heatwave. Why run a thread until it's threadbare? It's no longer early or mid July so the misnomer is starting to feel tired when talking about the late July or August heatwaves.
Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

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