The Weather Outlook

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Matty H
13 July 2026 21:07:17
Extraordinary, this, and especially with the model projections. 

And next summer is supposed to the hot one after and El Niño…..

Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

scillydave
13 July 2026 21:22:45

Extraordinary, this, and especially with the model projections. 

And next summer is supposed to the hot one after and El Niño…..

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

Indeed. The heat just feels endless.

The BBC app for Cardiff has us at 27c or above until the 26th July and the 27c are on the last 2 days. Almost every day is shown as sunny and 29 or 30c.

I know its unlikely to pan out thus but to be 10 days into a heatwave and to have another full 2 weeks modelled is just bonkers.

It's basically a forecast for the Med.

Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.

Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
14 July 2026 03:13:43

And confirmed on the 1800Z SYNOP with a max of 30.1C.

I think someone must have got the hairdryer out to keep the streak going TBH.... ;)

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Don't say that, there are people out there who actually believe they are placing thermometers on airfields in order to catch aircraft exhausts!

Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

+1
Rob K
14 July 2026 06:41:54
Definitely a shift to a less hot picture this morning. Only a couple of days ago we were seeing 34-35 modelled this week but now it looks like we will just about scrape 30-31 until Thursday and then down to high 20s by Friday. This morning’s GFS never really brings the heat back although it is at the lower end of the ensemble. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Jiries
14 July 2026 09:02:01

Definitely a shift to a less hot picture this morning. Only a couple of days ago we were seeing 34-35 modelled this week but now it looks like we will just about scrape 30-31 until Thursday and then down to high 20s by Friday. This morning’s GFS never really brings the heat back although it is at the lower end of the ensemble. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

I wonder if this week will be poor one with too much clouds and now overcast? thought the high SST's will prevent clouds but it seem not stopping it.  Or there a new frontal formed over the HP?  Was nicer earlier this morning but now 10am it overcast.

Ally Pally Snowman
14 July 2026 09:14:26
Think will be another struggle for 30c today. Cloud burning away very slowly.  Will have to be further west again. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Heavy Weather 2013
14 July 2026 09:22:19

Definitely a shift to a less hot picture this morning. Only a couple of days ago we were seeing 34-35 modelled this week but now it looks like we will just about scrape 30-31 until Thursday and then down to high 20s by Friday. This morning’s GFS never really brings the heat back although it is at the lower end of the ensemble. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Yes, looks very much an outlier. Interesting many runs do keep a stronger level of heat. Interestingly there is a small cluster of extreme heat following the potential peak next week. Whatever happens it’s remain dry. 

Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

The Beast from the East
14 July 2026 09:38:41

Definitely a shift to a less hot picture this morning. Only a couple of days ago we were seeing 34-35 modelled this week but now it looks like we will just about scrape 30-31 until Thursday and then down to high 20s by Friday. This morning’s GFS never really brings the heat back although it is at the lower end of the ensemble. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

ECM looks much better. with the block drifting east and south rather than getting sucked up to greenland

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

bledur
14 July 2026 09:43:32

Don't say that, there are people out there who actually believe they are placing thermometers on airfields in order to catch aircraft exhausts!

Originally Posted by: Col 

The late max at Hurn yesterday was most definitely due to the jet exhaust of a late afternoon departure of a Ryanair flight ✈️ 

The Beast from the East
14 July 2026 09:48:36

I think we're now at the self-sustaining phase of the heatwave. It's a bit like in winter, where you need low 850s and deep cold air to start a cold spell, but once you've snow on the ground the boundary layer chills enough that you can get away with relatively higher 850s to sustain it.

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Sadly we will never see this again in southern England.  I feel sorry for those kids too young to remember that last proper cold month December 2010.   Never likely to happen again unless the Gulf stream shuts down or Trump starts a nuclear war

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

doctormog
14 July 2026 10:16:02

Sadly we will never see this again in southern England.  I feel sorry for those kids too young to remember that last proper cold month December 2010.   Never likely to happen again unless the Gulf stream shuts down or Trump starts a nuclear war

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

They could move up here. There were isolated air frosts in parts of rural Aberdeenshire last night.

It's toasty where I am currently but might hit 40⁰C tomorrow when I'm in Sicily.

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

+2
roadrunnerajn
14 July 2026 10:20:37

They could move up here. There were isolated air frosts in parts of rural Aberdeenshire last night.

It's toasty where I am currently but might hit 40⁰C tomorrow when I'm in Sicily.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

What did Billy Connolly say about the Scots going on holiday… it take them a week just to turn white from blue.🤣

Germoe, part of the breakaway Celtic Republic. 80m asl
+3
doctormog
14 July 2026 10:51:42

What did Billy Connolly say about the Scots going on holiday… it take them a week just to turn white from blue.🤣

Originally Posted by: roadrunnerajn 

Very true 😂 (although I'm not Scottish by background I just live there).

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

John S2
14 July 2026 10:54:45

Extraordinary, this, and especially with the model projections. 

And next summer is supposed to the hot one after and El Niño…..

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

I would put money on next summer being nowhere near as hot as measured by CET. Globally it will probably be hotter. It is well known that years in which El Nino is developing are conducive to good summers here - some examples are 1976, 2006 & 2018. This is not random - there are physical reasons for it.

westv
14 July 2026 10:56:40

Sadly we will never see this again in southern England.  I feel sorry for those kids too young to remember that last proper cold month December 2010.   Never likely to happen again unless the Gulf stream shuts down or Trump starts a nuclear war

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

We probable thought that in October 2010. It's less likely but not impossible

Big heat in May

Summer will be spray.

+1
Rob K
14 July 2026 10:58:09
Cloud being very stubborn to shift across the south today. 30C by no means a cert today either.

BTW it looks like there was a higher figure yesterday, 31.6C at Preston Cove House (near Weymouth) which is an official Met Office manual station: https://wow.metoffice.gov.uk/observations/details/202607141qmpbbd9cwe9dcu6xusa4tircc 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

+1
Brian Gaze
14 July 2026 11:22:53

Cloud being very stubborn to shift across the south today. 30C by no means a cert today either.

BTW it looks like there was a higher figure yesterday, 31.6C at Preston Cove House (near Weymouth) which is an official Met Office manual station: https://wow.metoffice.gov.uk/observations/details/202607141qmpbbd9cwe9dcu6xusa4tircc 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Indeed. It's raining lightly here. 

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

warrenb
14 July 2026 11:23:29
Lovely sunny day here ion the east coast in Suffolk
Tonbridge 45m 
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
14 July 2026 11:28:14

Cloud being very stubborn to shift across the south today. 30C by no means a cert today either.

BTW it looks like there was a higher figure yesterday, 31.6C at Preston Cove House (near Weymouth) which is an official Met Office manual station: https://wow.metoffice.gov.uk/observations/details/202607141qmpbbd9cwe9dcu6xusa4tircc 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Excellent, that brings the heatwave score up from 35.5 to 37.0.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
14 July 2026 12:13:05

Cloud being very stubborn to shift across the south today. 30C by no means a cert today either.

BTW it looks like there was a higher figure yesterday, 31.6C at Preston Cove House (near Weymouth) which is an official Met Office manual station: https://wow.metoffice.gov.uk/observations/details/202607141qmpbbd9cwe9dcu6xusa4tircc 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Well I never! (back garden near to cliff falling down to the sea).

Thank you for the link. I learn something every day! It's almost next to the old Roman temple.

Yesterday with the NE wind, being on the coast it will be one of the warmer places in the UK. In the winter, one of the places where snow is now as rare as hens teeth.

State of Ground

Extremely dry with cracks

(An understatement)

Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

Jiries
14 July 2026 12:14:21

Indeed. It's raining lightly here. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Everything gone very wrong today, i am in doubt about high SST's as if this was high we would not get those horrible clouds around.   Dirty humid skies now and not much sun.

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
14 July 2026 12:16:32
It's like the past few days. 28.1C but with lighter winds from the NE. 

Needless to say cloudless and hot IMBY. 

Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

Retron
14 July 2026 13:07:20

Everything gone very wrong today, i am in doubt about high SST's as if this was high we would not get those horrible clouds around.   Dirty humid skies now and not much sun.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

It's ironic that the hottest part of the country early this afternoon (with a rounded 29) is Southend! It was meant to be much cooler there (25 max on the MetO raw), but much hotter further west. Not a good day for the models so far...

Leysdown, north Kent
Roger Parsons
14 July 2026 13:07:59

Well I never! (back garden near to cliff falling down to the sea).

Thank you for the link. I learn something every day! It's almost next to the old Roman temple.

Yesterday with the NE wind, being on the coast it will be one of the warmer places in the UK. In the winter, one of the places where snow is now as rare as hens teeth.

State of Ground

Extremely dry with cracks

(An understatement)

Originally Posted by: NMA 

A teaching colleague in the '70s told me he nearly gelded himself abseiling at Lulworth Cove. I think he was one of the last National Service trainees. 1963 I'd say.

What was National Service?

https://www.nam.ac.uk/explore/what-was-national-service 

RogerP

West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire

Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.

William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830

+1
Rob K
14 July 2026 13:30:18
27.8 at Shoreham the highest as of 2pm. Sun did come out here but cloud has come back. 25C while my desk photo frame weather symbol says sun and 30C.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

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