The Weather Outlook

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Bertwhistle
13 July 2026 15:28:47

A combination of wind and the cloud reaching the previously warmest south coast locations looks to have written off the 30C today.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Cloud? None at Hurn.

https://en.allmetsat.com/metar-taf/united-kingdom-ireland.php?icao=EGHH 


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Retron
13 July 2026 15:38:26

29.3c at Hurn, v close but don't think we'll get to 30c.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Yes, it's back to 28.6 now. Another hour or so left but I think you'll be right - so close!


Leysdown, north Kent
Rob K
13 July 2026 15:46:08

Cloud? None at Hurn.

https://en.allmetsat.com/metar-taf/united-kingdom-ireland.php?icao=EGHH 

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

Looks like plenty of cloud there for the last hour or so. Poole harbour webcam looks fairly overcast now.

 https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=50.7388,-2.72065,8z


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Rob K
13 July 2026 15:47:28

29.3c at Hurn, v close but don't think we'll get to 30c.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Where did you see 29.3? Highest I can see there is 28.7C.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Ally Pally Snowman
13 July 2026 15:48:30

Yes, it's back to 28.6 now. Another hour or so left but I think you'll be right - so close!

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Frustratingly close. 

Probably have another week of 30s after today.


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
13 July 2026 15:50:12

Where did you see 29.3? Highest I can see there is 28.7C.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Netweather have it on their max temps page. It was achieved at 2.46pm 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Rob K
13 July 2026 15:58:07

Netweather have it on their max temps page. It was achieved at 2.46pm 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

I hadn't seen that page before, useful.

So, 6 consecutive 30s in May, 7 in June and now 8 in July.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Retron
13 July 2026 16:17:12
30.1 Hurn! I've never been so happy to see a 30.
Leysdown, north Kent
Rob K
13 July 2026 16:21:51

30.1 Hurn! I've never been so happy to see a 30.

Originally Posted by: Retron 

It would be interesting to know where they get that data from, as I have never seen the live maxima available, only the SYNOPs either on the hour or every 10/20 mins depending on the site.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Retron
13 July 2026 16:24:21

It would be interesting to know where they get that data from, as I have never seen the live maxima available only the SYNOPs either on the hour of every 10/20 mins depending on the site.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

There's a near-enough live feed that the BBC et al have access to, as we've seen them announce the highest temperatures well in advance of the 18z SYNOP report that would confirm it. Perhaps NetWeather have access to that feed too? Certainly some of the timestamps of the daily maxima would suggest at the very least they get them every minute.


Leysdown, north Kent
Bertwhistle
13 July 2026 16:32:28
Well there you go- and funnily enough, Elizabeth Rizzini said we were on for a 9th consecutive 30, with today's forcast as the 'SE Wales, Somerset, Dorset' area. All down to the NE zephyrs!
Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Bertwhistle
13 July 2026 16:38:22

Looks like plenty of cloud there for the last hour or so. Poole harbour webcam looks fairly overcast now.

 https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=50.7388,-2.72065,8z

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

A different source then.

https://www.sat24.com/en-gb/country/gb 

You can play it back.

Poole harbour is south and west from Hurn, and certainly not indicative of it, especially when there is a disturbance in the western Channel.

Cloud moved in, thinly, after 3pm but not persistently enough to stop the temperature rising again.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Retron
13 July 2026 16:41:55
I think we're now at the self-sustaining phase of the heatwave. It's a bit like in winter, where you need low 850s and deep cold air to start a cold spell, but once you've snow on the ground the boundary layer chills enough that you can get away with relatively higher 850s to sustain it.

The 12z GFS shows this in its summer guise. The 850s aren't anything to write home about, but there are areas of 30 or more every day from tomorrow out to day 9 (as far as the high-res charts currently go). The boundary layer heats enough to generate small areas of 14 or 15C 850s during the late afternoon over the warmest areas, but 850s are generally lower aside from that. As a rule of thumb, at this time of year under clear skies and low winds, and for inland locations, you would add 16C to the 850s to get a rough estimate of surface temperatures, so 14C for 30, 24C for 40 and so on. 

The dryness of the land is doubtless involved with this, as dry land heats up that much faster. 


Leysdown, north Kent
Brian Gaze
13 July 2026 17:25:49

30.1 Hurn! I've never been so happy to see a 30.

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Is that an official report of 30C?


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
13 July 2026 17:38:43

Is that an official report of 30C?

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Netweather I think. If correct, that’s skin of teeth.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Retron
13 July 2026 17:39:58

Netweather I think. If correct, that’s skin of teeth.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

Yup, from their highest temperature feed... 3:20 PM, to be exact.


Leysdown, north Kent
Jiries
13 July 2026 17:58:57

I think we're now at the self-sustaining phase of the heatwave. It's a bit like in winter, where you need low 850s and deep cold air to start a cold spell, but once you've snow on the ground the boundary layer chills enough that you can get away with relatively higher 850s to sustain it.

The 12z GFS shows this in its summer guise. The 850s aren't anything to write home about, but there are areas of 30 or more every day from tomorrow out to day 9 (as far as the high-res charts currently go). The boundary layer heats enough to generate small areas of 14 or 15C 850s during the late afternoon over the warmest areas, but 850s are generally lower aside from that. As a rule of thumb, at this time of year under clear skies and low winds, and for inland locations, you would add 16C to the 850s to get a rough estimate of surface temperatures, so 14C for 30, 24C for 40 and so on. 

The dryness of the land is doubtless involved with this, as dry land heats up that much faster. 

Originally Posted by: Retron 

If the ground are more drier as time go perhaps the 850's and surface temperatures can go wide enough up to 18C or more? This year is a repeat of 2018 version or 1995 type so far.  Was surprised the clouds came and stay to midday to clear off when the sea temps already higher in the North Sea still generated clouds. 

Retron
13 July 2026 18:19:59
The MetO confirms we reached 30 today, as per this Tweet about tomorrow's weather (10th consecutive day).

https://x.com/metoffice/status/2076724701770989914 


Leysdown, north Kent
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
13 July 2026 18:36:40
So the heatwave lives to fight another day (just). Thanks Hurn. Very reminiscent of the 7th August 2003.

Score now 35.5


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Rob K
13 July 2026 18:41:44

Yup, from their highest temperature feed... 3:20 PM, to be exact.

Originally Posted by: Retron 

And confirmed on the 1800Z SYNOP with a max of 30.1C.

I think someone must have got the hairdryer out to keep the streak going TBH.... 😉


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Hungry Tiger
13 July 2026 18:46:16

I think we're now at the self-sustaining phase of the heatwave. It's a bit like in winter, where you need low 850s and deep cold air to start a cold spell, but once you've snow on the ground the boundary layer chills enough that you can get away with relatively higher 850s to sustain it.

The 12z GFS shows this in its summer guise. The 850s aren't anything to write home about, but there are areas of 30 or more every day from tomorrow out to day 9 (as far as the high-res charts currently go). The boundary layer heats enough to generate small areas of 14 or 15C 850s during the late afternoon over the warmest areas, but 850s are generally lower aside from that. As a rule of thumb, at this time of year under clear skies and low winds, and for inland locations, you would add 16C to the 850s to get a rough estimate of surface temperatures, so 14C for 30, 24C for 40 and so on. 

The dryness of the land is doubtless involved with this, as dry land heats up that much faster. 

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Excellent post there Darren and very well presented and described there. Well done.  🙂🙂🙂🙂


Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



Rob K
13 July 2026 18:53:21
By my reckoning that's now 24 days over 30C this year which equals 1976. Only 1995 and 2018 have had more.

Tomorrow could be another date record, it's a relatively low 32.3C to beat, from 1983.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

picturesareme
13 July 2026 19:30:34
We also got to 30.1C
tierradelfuego
13 July 2026 19:44:59
28.9c here so the 7 day streak stops as expected, perfect day though so no grudges!
Bucklebury

West Berkshire Downs AONB

135m ASL

VP2 with daytime FARS

Rainfall collector separated at ground level

Anemometer separated above roof level

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Polar Low
13 July 2026 20:08:59

The dryness of the land is doubtless involved with this, as dry land heats up that much faster. 

Originally Posted by: Retron 

100 Per cent Darren

In wet soil the air temperature is less because of the evaporation process acting like a cooling process with combined increased thermal conductance of the soil also taking reflective  energy away from the air.

In dry soil there is a much less cooling process and much less conductance of the soil resulting in increased thermal reflective energy into the air hence the heat air waves you see more from a distance in hot conditions on dry land rather than a wet one.

What we have now with low DP and excellent dry properties of the air can only mean it is relatively easy to reach those dizzy temperatures when compared to relatively low uppers.

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