The Op is an outlier, but by the look of the suite, the whole thing is a few degrees cooler and we’re back to average temps with some rainy conditions from 13th:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=2&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1 

Looks similar to recent updates on our plots, with the mean staying well above the 30 year norm. What am I missing?

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=202&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1 

The ensemble mean 2m temps are always around 3C cooler than the individual runs suggest. Even the op line on the ensemble undershoots by a degree or two. It’s showing 27C for London tomorrow for example, where the mapped GFS output has 29C. I suspect it’s a resolution issue. 

Pretty much spot on the forecast for today - a Saturday 29c, Sunday 30c and Monday 33c has been pretty consistently modelled for about a week now. It's after that, that we get the bigger swings.

Yep, sleep walking into 1976 atm. Remarkable output 

I have a weekend away in a barn retreat next weekend. Looking toasty. 

The mean max of the last 18 days (from June 16) is currently 30.3C. A 29C today would still make it 30.2C average, and then the max for the next week at least looks like reaching 30C.

28c, 31c, 30c, 33c, 35c, 34c, 34c, 33c, 32c, 34c, 31c

😵😵😵😵😵😵😵

Question is will be sunny type days? Can't feel this will be very sunny with the way clouds behaving lately.

To remove clouds better not to have very blue skies in the morning like today was very nice then panic forming clouds as early as 8am to overcast most of the time.  Need to get some non-fresh air so to get more sunnier weather.

Never understand why it never sunny when it very fresh air, low dewpoints and no humidity?  other countries does the correct ways and when humid won't be fully sunny.  Max was 24.1C so not sure what the problems with clouds lately as in Spring or other days we get sunny weather at 24C?

Doesn’t seem to matter these days today very odd forecast seemed all wrong start cloudy windy then burst of hot sunshine well I thought that’s it maybe 25 26 but no oddly got very warm breeze in fact partner said she must sit down at Writtle Fair.

Writtle often very hot due to a natural dip in the landscape and being surrounded by the Roding Valley

We got back in car after a couple of miles Kuga gave 29c I rang around and Writtle college gave 28.1c at 1641 with strong breeze blowing and drying conditions intensifying also seemed to not to cool of in a hurry either.

Pleased also HW confirms 29c.

Very much a cool outlier in the ENS though. it’s all about how that weekend trough develops before the secondary high builds over the North. ECM keeps up the solid 2-phase heatwave script: warming from a French ridge this week, then North Sea / Scandi anticyclone into the weekend. 

Headline:

Increasingly hot over the next few days.

Today:

Patchy low cloud will linger at first across the region, but skies will gradually brighten through the morning. Some very warm and hazy spells of sunshine will develop with light winds. Low cloud lingering around some coasts. Maximum temperature 27 °C.

Tonight:

After a bright and warm evening, low cloud will move back in overnight to bring mist and fog patches in some areas. Staying dry and warm overnight. Minimum temperature 15 °C.

Monday:

Low cloud will burn back during the morning to bring sunny skies. Feeling very warm in the sunshine and light winds. Maximum temperature 30 °C.

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Staying dry and increasingly hot through the outlook. Plenty of strong sunshine and light winds, with some warm nights too.

Updated: 04:00 (UTC+1) on Sun 5 Jul 2026

Yes, even ECM does break it down in extended with a lot of storms and then a cool northerly.  

That my gut feeling about this coming so called sunny heatwave and high temperatures. it now 10.35 just nearly 5 hours since sunrise time had no sun to warm up and quite chilly outside.  Supposed to be 26-27C today.  Pressure on my home station showing high 1024mb not able to keep clouds out.  Best sunny and warmer day to me was last Thursday despite being windy but much warmer than yesterday or today so far.

Statistical drivel either way. They don't have an instrument that reads accurately or precisely to two decimal places and so should have been quoted as 29.4C in the first place.