The Weather Outlook

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DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
28 June 2026 17:10:58

Very interesting twitter thread showing the warm-up to the next event, if it happens. Diabetic warming over Iberia carried out into the Atlantic:

https://x.com/peacockreports/status/2071239583300264000?s=46 

Originally Posted by: TimS 

A sweet prospect?

War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
28 June 2026 17:29:26

12Z GFS much less exceptional in terms of 850s but still effortlessly reaches high 20s to low 30s pretty much every day. The last day that didn't reach 25C was 15 June and GFS keeps it going to the middle of July.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

The 12Z GFS is actually a lovely summer run.

Someday, when seating heatwaves are two a penny (soon?) we’ll have special “early-mid July potential pleasantly equable weather” threads.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
+2
Rob K
28 June 2026 17:40:33

According to Google/Gemini 1976 had 5 days at or over 35C and this is still so far the record

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1976_British_Isles_heatwave 

It would be really useful to have a detailed dataset from (say) 1850 of all the data shown in Met Office "24 hour extremes in the UK"  available for analysis in one file

I don't think such a thing exists or even if the older data is even recorded, It would be a huge task to compile lit from the Met Office daily archives but it would answer a ton of the queries we see on here 

 

Originally Posted by: lanky 

To answer the above - you can get a graph of daily max/min for every day of any year on Roost Weather at this page (example URL for 1976)

https://www.roostweather.com/ukobs/ukgraphs.php?type=yeardailyextreme&field=temp&year=1976&country=UK 

I think if you do too many years at once you will get a temporary IP block but you can download the data a year at a time as a CSV file etc.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Ally Pally Snowman
28 June 2026 18:07:09
41.7c in Germany another all time record today. Czech Rep and Poland also set all time records .

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn4d2vv935lo 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Rob K
29 June 2026 06:45:48
I think that’s now three GFS op runs of the last eight that have gone for 41C?
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Brian Gaze
29 June 2026 14:35:25
I would say a longer period of very warm or hot weather than the one we've just had looks quite likely. 

UserPostedImage

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Rob K
29 June 2026 14:52:23

Lingwood Norfolk confirmed as new June record holder 37.7c 

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://x.com/metoffice%3Flang%3Den&ved=2ahUKEwjdg8bX0KyVAxXBQEEAHTq7CkYQFnoECDAQAQ&sqi=2&usg=AOvVaw2Z2khvKkzURbGay0MVWZi8 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

That's one of the stations I did think might beat the record. Good to know that it is still updating despite nothing on WOW since March!

Just missed 100F by a whisker though - 37.7C is 99.86F. And not an airfield in sight, but I am sure it will still be a junk station for some reason or another.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

+4
Rob K
29 June 2026 18:48:24
BTW the Westonzoyland readings are in for the 25th - only 35.8C so beating the old record but not as hot as Merryfield or the spurious Yeovilton figure. Marnhull still not available - but I assume the Met would have tweeted if there was anything special.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

westv
30 June 2026 06:06:49

I would say a longer period of very warm or hot weather than the one we've just had looks quite likely. 

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

We will all melt!

Big heat in May

Summer will be spray.

scillydave
30 June 2026 11:47:11

Here's the GFS 06Z "furnace heat" chart. TBH, these 40°C-plus charts are now losing their "excitement" because they're occurring so often. The question is whether we'll be around long enough to see 45°Cs starting to appear in the model output.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Looks like the GFS answered that question today Brian - about 48 hours as it turns out!

Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.

Rob K
30 June 2026 12:51:31

Looks like the GFS answered that question today Brian - about 48 hours as it turns out!

Originally Posted by: scillydave 

I don't think there were any 45s were there? I saw 44C on that one 00Z GEFS member.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

scillydave
30 June 2026 16:37:00

I don't think there were any 45s were there? I saw 44C on that one 00Z GEFS member.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

I've rechecked and you're correct - it's all 44s - plenty of them mind so I dare say there'd have been a 45c in there if it had a higher resolution. The wait continues!

Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.

+1
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
30 June 2026 16:43:03

I've rechecked and you're correct - it's all 44s - plenty of them mind so I dare say there'd have been a 45c in there if it had a higher resolution. The wait continues!

Originally Posted by: scillydave 

Strange times, aren't they, that were noting that no ensemble runs give us 45C, only 44C.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
bledur
30 June 2026 18:13:06
For this area a high of 28 c forecast next week ,then temps down to 22 by the 13th so ATM the high pressure looks like remaining too far west to draw up any very high temps.

Matty H
30 June 2026 19:20:40

For this area a high of 28 c forecast next week ,then temps down to 22 by the 13th so ATM the high pressure looks like remaining too far west to draw up any very high temps.

Originally Posted by: bledur 

Where are you?

Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

Rob K
01 July 2026 07:35:51

For this area a high of 28 c forecast next week ,then temps down to 22 by the 13th so ATM the high pressure looks like remaining too far west to draw up any very high temps.

Originally Posted by: bledur 

Profile says West Hants.

I am in in northeast Hants and the Met gives me 31 on Monday and Tuesday. BBC goes 29/30/31/31/30 for Mon-Fri  next week and lots of sunshine. Looks like a great spell coming up but fingers crossed for another record-breaker before the month is out!

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

+1
Bertwhistle
01 July 2026 10:52:13
GFS 0z fails to get the HP over and to the east of us when it's still robust enough to drag up the 20+ uppers. 6z seems to be suggesting similar, although further HP is modelled in later on, prolonging warmth at least (6z still rolling out).
Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

The Beast from the East
01 July 2026 11:18:02

GFS 0z fails to get the HP over and to the east of us when it's still robust enough to drag up the 20+ uppers. 6z seems to be suggesting similar, although further HP is modelled in later on, prolonging warmth at least (6z still rolling out).

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

Same pattern on the 06z.  Summer equivalent of a failed Beast from the East!

But it will still be an 80s style heatwave for the south.  Should be pleasant and sweaty enough 

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

Rob K
01 July 2026 11:36:24
GFS gives an average max of 30.25C in London for the first 16 days of July.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

+1
Bertwhistle
01 July 2026 11:39:19

GFS gives an average max of 30.25C in London for the first 16 days of July.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

That would be a 1983!

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Rob K
02 July 2026 06:08:32
Automated output on BBC, Met and iPhone app has all knocked the temperatures down quite a bit overnight, 25-28 rather than 28-31 now and a lot more cloud symbols rather than sun. Not sure quite what has caused that as the models still look OK. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

+1
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
02 July 2026 07:19:36

Automated output on BBC, Met and iPhone app has all knocked the temperatures down quite a bit overnight, 25-28 rather than 28-31 now and a lot more cloud symbols rather than sun. Not sure quite what has caused that as the models still look OK. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Blame me. I've gone for a hot July on the CET prediction ......

Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)

Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)

johncs2016
02 July 2026 08:03:27

Blame me. I've gone for a hot July on the CET prediction ......

Originally Posted by: GezM 

Could still happen of course, and will no doubt probably will still happen if the pattern of the last couple of months continues, despite what the models might be saying just now.

If the latest Met Office predictions are correct, we might just get to see our first 20+°C maximum of this month here in Edinburgh by tomorrow but given that we are now into high summer, that is nothing more than what would typically expect to see at this time of the year anyway. There are no signs in those predictions of anything all that hot for now and the highest predicted temperatures for here are currently only around 22°C by next Wednesday which is in the less reliable time frame as far as any model output is concerned.

The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
02 July 2026 16:57:29
So, longevity of heatwave. I looked up the longest number of consecutive days somewhere in the UK recorded 30C or more and of course the record remains June-July 1976 with 15 days, and the runner up seems to be August 2003 with 10 consecutive days.

The 1976 number is hard to beat even in a world that's 1.5 or 2C warmer, because it implies a very low level of day to day variability. 

In the GFS 06Z we got a definite 12 and probable 14 (maxes on the map this Sunday of 29 which usually means somewhere would see 30), with almost certainly at least a day or 2 more beyond the end of the run. So that would beat 1976 if it happened.

On the 12z so far we're up at 11 starting on Saturday running to 294hrs on the 14th, so that's a second run beating 2003 and threatening 1976. Both leave other events trailing in their wake.

Edit: yep it keeps going and ends the run with a cheeky 40

Brockley, South East London 30m asl

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