The Weather Outlook

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scillydave
27 June 2026 09:24:56
Are we heading for 3 in a row? It looks increasingly likely and as there's already a bit of discussion I thought it might be nice to have a new thread. 
Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.

Ally Pally Snowman
27 June 2026 09:44:45
Does anyone know the most over 35c days in a year? 4 already in 2026. I'm thinking 76, 90, 03, and 22 the contenders
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
lanky
27 June 2026 10:08:15

Does anyone know the most over 35c days in a year? 4 already in 2026. I'm thinking 76, 90, 03, and 22 the contenders

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

According to Google/Gemini 1976 had 5 days at or over 35C and this is still so far the record

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1976_British_Isles_heatwave 

It would be really useful to have a detailed dataset from (say) 1850 of all the data shown in Met Office "24 hour extremes in the UK"  available for analysis in one file

I don't think such a thing exists or even if the older data is even recorded, It would be a huge task to compile lit from the Met Office daily archives but it would answer a ton of the queries we see on here 

 


Martin

Richmond, Surrey

Ally Pally Snowman
27 June 2026 10:14:25

According to Google/Gemini 1976 had 5 days at or over 35C and this is still so far the record

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1976_British_Isles_heatwave 

It would be really useful to have a detailed dataset from (say) 1850 of all the data shown in Met Office "24 hour extremes in the UK"  available for analysis in one file

I don't think such a thing exists or even if the older data is even recorded, It would be a huge task to compile lit from the Met Office daily archives but it would answer a ton of the queries we see on here 

 

Originally Posted by: lanky 

Yes AI said six for 2022, but I find AI quite poor when it comes to UK weather statistics.  Definitely some sort of database would be useful 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
The Beast from the East
27 June 2026 10:20:55
If the long range ECM verifies, then the Summer of 26 will beat the Summer of 76.   I was a 7 to 8 month foetus during that Summer which perhaps explains a few things about me now!


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

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Rob K
27 June 2026 13:05:14

According to Google/Gemini 1976 had 5 days at or over 35C and this is still so far the record

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1976_British_Isles_heatwave 

It would be really useful to have a detailed dataset from (say) 1850 of all the data shown in Met Office "24 hour extremes in the UK"  available for analysis in one file

I don't think such a thing exists or even if the older data is even recorded, It would be a huge task to compile lit from the Met Office daily archives but it would answer a ton of the queries we see on here 

 

Originally Posted by: lanky 

Unless I am missing something, I don't think the older Met Office summaries (pre 1990s) even include an overall max for each day, they just seem to show the maxima for the various stations, so it might not be very easy at all.

Roost Weather has a good feature where you can get the summary map with the top 10 temps for any given day right back to the 19th century (although records are obviously more sparse back then). Unfortunately though if you try and look at too many days at once it blocks your IP, presumably to prevent data scraping.

https://www.roostweather.com/ukobs/maxtemp_map.php 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

saxtemp
27 June 2026 13:45:47
GEFS already spitting out a 40c on P4 on the 0z, to be taken with a pinch of salt of course.

UserPostedImage

Rob K
27 June 2026 14:49:31

Yes AI said six for 2022, but I find AI quite poor when it comes to UK weather statistics.  Definitely some sort of database would be useful 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

From what I can see, 1976 and 2020 both had 5 35C+ days. 1990 and 2003 both had 3.

 

2022 only had two that I can see: July 18 and 19. August 13 came close with 34.9.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Rob K
27 June 2026 17:24:55
Anyone watching for the next heatwave should take a look at the GFS 12Z run. Another five 35C days including two over 40.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Ally Pally Snowman
27 June 2026 17:36:42

From what I can see, 1976 and 2020 both had 5 35C+ days. 1990 and 2003 both had 3.

 

2022 only had two that I can see: July 18 and 19. August 13 came close with 34.9.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Beatable then. Especially if that GFS 12z comes off.


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Bertwhistle
27 June 2026 18:12:06
Thanks for setting up a separate thread for July. I know someone said it should all just be one from June but a separate event will be recorded as a separate event (if it is worthy of recording).
Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

lanky
28 June 2026 10:43:30

Unless I am missing something, I don't think the older Met Office summaries (pre 1990s) even include an overall max for each day, they just seem to show the maxima for the various stations, so it might not be very easy at all.

Roost Weather has a good feature where you can get the summary map with the top 10 temps for any given day right back to the 19th century (although records are obviously more sparse back then). Unfortunately though if you try and look at too many days at once it blocks your IP, presumably to prevent data scraping.

https://www.roostweather.com/ukobs/maxtemp_map.php 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Very laborious and time consuming I am sure - presumably using the Met Offices Digital Archives which as you say vary in format over the whole period and  also the Met Office/CEDA Midas files which contain hundreds of daily Station histories over various time periods (when that station was active) going back 150 years or more.

I suppose someone must have done some of this work already in order to obtain lists such as the Torro Daily Extremes of UK maxima and minima going back to the 1800's at least for the hottest and coldest days of each year looking for candidate stations


Martin

Richmond, Surrey

Ally Pally Snowman
28 June 2026 10:53:46
41c on the latest GFS 6z. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Rob K
28 June 2026 10:58:30

41c on the latest GFS 6z. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Yes a briefer event than yesterday's 12Z but no less intense.

Maxima on the last four op runs runs have been 41, 32, 34 and now 41 again. This morning's ECM has several 30C+ days peaking at 36. You'd be brave to bet against another heatwave at the moment...


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Brian Gaze
28 June 2026 12:23:40
I've stickied this thread and moved the June one to the classics forum. It can be read here:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/Posts/t24642-Mid---late-June-2026-onwards-heatwave 


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Brian Gaze
28 June 2026 12:26:42
Here's the GFS 06Z "furnace heat" chart. TBH, these 40°C-plus charts are now losing their "excitement" because they're occurring so often. The question is whether we'll be around long enough to see 45°Cs starting to appear in the model output.

UserPostedImage


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Windy Willow
28 June 2026 12:30:39

Here's the GFS 06Z "furnace heat" chart. TBH, these 40°C-plus charts are now losing their "excitement" because they're occurring so often. The question is whether we'll be around long enough to see 45°Cs starting to appear in the model output.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Yuck! I'm in the 38c zone and not really all that far from the 41c up by Norwich. Not something to look forward to.


South Holland, Lincs 5m/16ft ASL

When I saw corruption, I was forced to find truth on my own. I couldn't swallow the hypocrisy.

Barry White

It’s the end of the world as we know it (and I feel fine) - R.E.M.

Rob K
28 June 2026 12:53:27
11 members of the 6Z GEFS (plus the operational) hit 20C at 850mb at some point. Definitely a peak starting to appear on the spaghetti plots around the July 7-11 period. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Retron
28 June 2026 13:01:09

11 members of the 6Z GEFS (plus the operational) hit 20C at 850mb at some point. Definitely a peak starting to appear on the spaghetti plots around the July 7-11 period. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

It's been roughly a 1-in-3 chance I'd say for a couple of days now (in terms of a 30+ spell). Definitely worth taking notice of, and sod's law says it'll happen - definitely worth keeping an eye on.


Leysdown, north Kent
scillydave
28 June 2026 13:25:12

Here's the GFS 06Z "furnace heat" chart. TBH, these 40°C-plus charts are now losing their "excitement" because they're occurring so often. The question is whether we'll be around long enough to see 45°Cs starting to appear in the model output.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

I'd reckon that there's a good chance of a 43c or a 44c being modelled this summer. Or at least it definitely wouldn't surprise me.


Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.

Crepuscular Ray
28 June 2026 13:33:43

Are we heading for 3 in a row? It looks increasingly likely and as there's already a bit of discussion I thought it might be nice to have a new thread. 

Originally Posted by: scillydave 

One heatwave would be nice, we can't even manage 3 days over 25 C up here. The gap between England and Scotland's temperature's is increasing!


Jerry

Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill

Brian Gaze
28 June 2026 14:31:17
Here's the GEFS 06Z view for London. Another spell of very warm weather looks likely to me. Whether we're heading for (yet another) one of the all time classics is much less clear, but these days you'd be daft to rule out the possibility at this stage.  

UserPostedImage


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Hungry Tiger
28 June 2026 15:36:34

I've stickied this thread and moved the June one to the classics forum. It can be read here:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/Posts/t24642-Mid---late-June-2026-onwards-heatwave 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Cheers Brian. You beat me to it. 🙂🙂🙂🙂


Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
28 June 2026 17:09:27
Very interesting twitter thread showing the warm-up to the next event, if it happens. Adiabatic warming over Iberia carried out into the Atlantic:

https://x.com/peacockreports/status/2071239583300264000?s=46 


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Rob K
28 June 2026 17:10:10
12Z GFS much less exceptional in terms of 850s but still effortlessly reaches high 20s to low 30s pretty much every day. The last day that didn't reach 25C was 15 June and GFS keeps it going to the middle of July.

FWIW 1976 had exactly one month of consecutive days above 25C, from 21 June to 20 July inclusive. The longest such spell I could find was from July 18 to August 26 1995.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

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