The Weather Outlook

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scillydave
21 June 2026 20:03:46
Given the speculation on the main heatwave thread I thought it might be interesting (if a little macabre) to open a dedicated thread to predict the highest temperatures of this up coming spell.

So how about:

Top UK temp of the spell

Top England,  Wales, Scotland and N.I. temps.

Uk 40.2c

Wales 38.1c

England 40.2c

Scotland 29.7c

N.I.  28.5c

Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.

+1
Ally Pally Snowman
21 June 2026 20:07:10
England 39.5c

Wales 37.2c New record

Scotland 32.3c

N.I.   30.5c

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
saxtemp
21 June 2026 20:26:02
38.2c. I was tempted to go with a conservative 36.8c as the models are in retreat a bit, but I'll stick with 38.2c as my final answer.

My May prediction of 34.8c actually came to fruition, before being beaten the very next day.

UK/England: 38.2c

Wales: 36.8c

Scotland: 29.2c

NI: 26.8c

Brian Gaze
21 June 2026 20:35:39
I could be wrong, but doesn't past evidence suggest that modelled Tmax 2m temperatures are generally a little higher than those officially reported? Presumably that's because the official reporting network is relatively sparse.
Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

+1
Matty H
21 June 2026 21:17:37
England - 38.6 

Wales - 35.4

Scotland - 28.2

Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

HighPressureGloom
21 June 2026 21:38:11
UK/England: 40.5c

Wales: 38.8c

Scotland: 35.2c

NI: 28.8c

Rob K
21 June 2026 22:16:09

I could be wrong, but doesn't past evidence suggest that modelled Tmax 2m temperatures are generally a little higher than those officially reported? Presumably that's because the official reporting network is relatively sparse.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

In 2022 UKV went for 43C and on the morning the Met was going for 41. We ended up with 40.3 and the peak happened relatively early in the day I think. (Heathrow hit 40C soon after 1pm as I recall?)

anyway I will go for:

England 39.1

Wales 37.8

Scotland 30.3

NI 28.6

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Bolty
21 June 2026 23:06:38
England: 38.9°C

Wales: 36.5°C

Scotland: 32.1°C

Northern Ireland: 29.8°C

Scott

Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.

My weather station 

redmoons
22 June 2026 01:24:55
England: 40.8°C

Wales: 38.2°C

Scotland: 31.7°C

Northern Ireland: 30.1°C

Andrew,

Watford

ASL 35m

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IWATFO32 

Heavy Weather 2013
22 June 2026 04:25:47
England: 39.9C

Wales: 38.1C

Scotland: 29.8C

NI: 31.2C

Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
22 June 2026 06:06:32
England 39.1

Wales 38.2

Scotland 35.4

NI 33.9

It's not the voting that's democracy, it's the counting - Tom Stoppard

Chichester 12m asl

Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
22 June 2026 06:33:28
England - 39.2C

Wales - 36.5C

Scotland - 28.9C

Northern Ireland - 27.0C

Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

TheJudge
22 June 2026 07:18:14
England 42.1

Wales 39.8

Scotland 34.2

Ireland 30.4

Barby 551 ft above sea level
westv
22 June 2026 08:07:00
Total guess

England 36.2

Wales 34.9

Scotland 31.2

Ireland 32.2

Big heat in May

Summer will be spray.

+1
ozoneaurora
22 June 2026 08:40:29
Another guess:-

England = 36.3

Wales = 33.9

Scotland = 28.6

N Ireland = 27.4

I think patches of unstable medium-level clouds and isolated thundery showers could spoil things a bit.

Hungry Tiger
22 June 2026 10:35:54
39.5C. In the south West. 🙂🙂
Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



Quantum
22 June 2026 10:40:03

Given the speculation on the main heatwave thread I thought it might be interesting (if a little macabre) to open a dedicated thread to predict the highest temperatures of this up coming spell.

So how about:

Top UK temp of the spell

Top England,  Wales, Scotland and N.I. temps.

Uk 40.2c

Wales 38.1c

England 40.2c

Scotland 29.7c

N.I.  28.5c

Originally Posted by: scillydave 

UK/England: 40.9C

Wales: 37.8C (but probably much hotter on the north bank of the Severn where there don't seem to be any stations)

Scotland: 32.4C

NI: 30.5C

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Rob K
22 June 2026 10:52:05
I am starting to think I may have gone too low! 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Quantum
22 June 2026 10:59:44
Since this is another adiabatic event. We can make some basic benchmarks. The T850s will likely max out at around 25C, adding a dry lapse rate correction of 14C gets us to 39C.

Now it isn't completely adiabatic as there is moisture around, but what that probably means is that instead of seeing widespread 39C we see cooler and warmer pockets from foehn type effects, certainly it isn't like the 2023 (I think) June event when we had similar uppers but it was too brief and humid for us to get a fully adiabatic event.

But yes 39C as a baseline and you easily see how you get close to 41C locally once you add some foehn type stuff off the orography and account for other sources of diabatic heating.

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

HighPressureGloom
22 June 2026 13:53:40

Since this is another adiabatic event. We can make some basic benchmarks. The T850s will likely max out at around 25C, adding a dry lapse rate correction of 14C gets us to 39C.

Now it isn't completely adiabatic as there is moisture around, but what that probably means is that instead of seeing widespread 39C we see cooler and warmer pockets from foehn type effects, certainly it isn't like the 2023 (I think) June event when we had similar uppers but it was too brief and humid for us to get a fully adiabatic event.

But yes 39C as a baseline and you easily see how you get close to 41C locally once you add some foehn type stuff off the orography and account for other sources of diabatic heating.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Bold opening strategy to call a record breaking, soupy plume a 'adiabatic event.' Did someone accidentally weld the UK into a vacuum sealed box while I wasn't looking? I'm glad you backed down next paragraph  🤣

Rob K
23 June 2026 11:43:28

In 2022 UKV went for 43C and on the morning the Met was going for 41. We ended up with 40.3 and the peak happened relatively early in the day I think. (Heathrow hit 40C soon after 1pm as I recall?)

anyway I will go for:

England 39.1

Wales 37.8

Scotland 30.3

NI 28.6

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

I think I was about 2-3C high with all of these except maybe NI.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Tom Oxon
23 June 2026 12:46:37
I'm going to go with 38.1C on the back of the latest output.
S Warwickshire countryside, c.375ft asl.
HighPressureGloom
23 June 2026 19:10:55
[img]UserPostedImage [/img]

The GEM 12z has twisted my arm showing the hot air making its way to the border more quickly, I think 33/1 is generous 😊

Rob K
25 June 2026 19:10:29
Looks like almost everyone went quite a lot too high. Those high-res models clearly need some work still….
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

+2
saxtemp
25 June 2026 19:47:05

38.2c. I was tempted to go with a conservative 36.8c as the models are in retreat a bit, but I'll stick with 38.2c as my final answer.

My May prediction of 34.8c actually came to fruition, before being beaten the very next day.

UK/England: 38.2c

Wales: 36.8c

Scotland: 29.2c

NI: 26.8c

Originally Posted by: saxtemp 

Should have stuck with my gut feeling, 

+2

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