The Weather Outlook

Remove ads from site

Rob K
21 June 2026 11:24:07

About time for planning for the coming week ahead. May see a red if 40c is forecast I suspect.

Originally Posted by: BYF1 

The Met headlines are still just talking about 38C, although the auto is showing 39C (down from 40C earlier today).

The auto output in 2022 was showing 42C at one stage, so I think an all-time record is unlikely. June record is already in the bag though, surely.

For today's max, UKV and ICON go for 30, GFS and Arpege 31C, AIFS only 28C. We've already hit 28.3C at 12 noon today.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
21 June 2026 12:11:55

I'd echo this. So called "swamp coolers" are generally a waste of time and money in the UK IMO. For anyone interested, there is a piece about them here: 

https://home.howstuffworks.com/home-improvement/heating-and-cooling/swamp-cooler.htm 

I would advise people to give serious consideration to split a/c, if they have the budget and are allowed to install it where they live. Alternatively, go for a portable a/c from a reputable retailer.

Another possibility for some people may be to sleep downstairs or in the garden. The garden option can actually be pleasant if you're lucky enough to live in a decent area.

PS: If anyone wants to create a seperate thread to focus and discuss their specific worries about the heatwave then feel free to do so. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

I'll echo the garden option, especially if you have a lawn/greenery that helps reduce the temperature and not a UHI paved plot. One of those pump-up beds and it can be a great place at the right time. People sleep on roofs in some parts of the world.  

https://www.preventionweb.net/news/5-lessons-ancient-civilizations-keeping-homes-cool-hot-dry-climates 

I have greenery (fig tree with large green leaves) on my hot south facing red brick office wall. It's notably cooler than last year when the plant was smaller. 


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

Bertwhistle
21 June 2026 12:45:26

I'll echo the garden option, especially if you have a lawn/greenery that helps reduce the temperature and not a UHI paved plot. One of those pump-up beds and it can be a great place at the right time. People sleep on roofs in some parts of the world.  

https://www.preventionweb.net/news/5-lessons-ancient-civilizations-keeping-homes-cool-hot-dry-climates 

I have greenery (fig tree with large green leaves) on my hot south facing red brick office wall. It's notably cooler than last year when the plant was smaller. 

Originally Posted by: NMA 

Completely right Nick. My back garden is an (organised and intentional) jungle, full of shrubs, fruit trees, vegetables and flowers, with barely room for lawn. Granted we have different digital thermometers but neighbour's thermometer was reading 28.6 earlier when mine showed 26.5.

The pond might help also.

On a different matter, when the sun is on the house, especially if there's a slight breeze, I hose the windows ad walls up to 3 times during the day. Even with high humidity, the evaporation is enough to cool the south side a little. 


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
21 June 2026 12:58:10

Completely right Nick. My back garden is an (organised and intentional) jungle, full of shrubs, fruit trees, vegetables and flowers, with barely room for lawn. Granted we have different digital thermometers but neighbour's thermometer was reading 28.6 earlier when mine showed 26.5.

The pond might help also.

On a different matter, when the sun is on the house, especially if there's a slight breeze, I hose the windows ad walls up to 3 times during the day. Even with high humidity, the evaporation is enough to cool the south side a little. 

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

During the 2022 wave I took the wet t-shirt option. It kept me cool all day. Just a couple if top ups from the paddling pool: soak, wring, put on. I did this during work, checking first that it didn't look too bad on Teams.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Jiries
21 June 2026 13:00:27

The Met headlines are still just talking about 38C, although the auto is showing 39C (down from 40C earlier today).

The auto output in 2022 was showing 42C at one stage, so I think an all-time record is unlikely. June record is already in the bag though, surely.

For today's max, UKV and ICON go for 30, GFS and Arpege 31C, AIFS only 28C. We've already hit 28.3C at 12 noon today.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

There a lot of clouds here and mostly polluted skies which not forecasted as supposed to start the sunny weather onward.  Seeing nice high temps on the charts but more concern is the clouds behaviour that will try to ruin it this coming week?  My brother in Letchworth also got the same issue and had rain for few minutes. so not sure where the rain and clouds coming from under this HP.  Getting wary about this coming heatwave if the clouds persist. 

Rob K
21 June 2026 13:21:54

There a lot of clouds here and mostly polluted skies which not forecasted as supposed to start the sunny weather onward.  Seeing nice high temps on the charts but more concern is the clouds behaviour that will try to ruin it this coming week?  My brother in Letchworth also got the same issue and had rain for few minutes. so not sure where the rain and clouds coming from under this HP.  Getting wary about this coming heatwave if the clouds persist. 

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

The model soundings (Windy.com is a good place to see them) show very high humidity around 200-500mb today so there is a lot of high cloud and plane trails. It should drop by Tuesday and be a bit clearer although it will still likely be a bit hazy.

Today's 2pm update has Wisley leading the way at 29.6C so I think a 9th 30C of 2026 is pretty well certain. At least another five in a row to come, I think.

Edit: in fact Heathrow was 30.01C at 1.10pm so it's already in the bag.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
21 June 2026 13:27:00

During the 2022 wave I took the wet t-shirt option. It kept me cool all day. Just a couple if top ups from the paddling pool: soak, wring, put on. I did this during work, checking first that it didn't look too bad on Teams.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

Reminds me of the knotted hanky trick to keep cool. A thicker wet tee towel placed on one's head does it better. In fact I've got one on right now. I used to wear a sweat head towel in the tropics. Simple yet effective. Cool eh!

It's 29.2 °C in my Mediterranean Garden yet it feels fine in the shade. Water spraying the outside of the south wall sounds like a great idea.

My house is painted white, which helps reflect the sun's rays. The neighbour's house is brick, which obviously absorbs the heat and they know it at night.  Kitchen 21°C as I type.


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
21 June 2026 13:32:19
And to take a leaf out of the Moors book. The sound of trickling water in a shaded garden works wonders, especially in the cool of the evening or morning, for that matter, when breakfast outdoors is a delight.
Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

Rob K
21 June 2026 13:52:48
580dam thickness and 25C 850mb temps on the GFS 6Z GFS: https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/06_87_ukthickness850sohd.png


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Ally Pally Snowman
21 June 2026 14:26:48
Wisley 31.5c hot spot so far.
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
21 June 2026 14:36:51

580dam thickness and 25C 850mb temps on the GFS 6Z GFS: https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/06_87_ukthickness850sohd.png

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Starting to look comparable with July 18/19th 2022 in terms of 850mb temps here, but with possibly a more favourable south easterly wind direction for a high temps or a less favourable east south easterly bringing in some north sea temperature moderation time will tell.

UV will obviously be stronger but I'm not sure how appreciable that will be.

Brian Gaze
21 June 2026 14:47:01
WBTs are also quite toasty (to say the least). 

UserPostedImage


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
21 June 2026 15:05:47

WBTs are also quite toasty (to say the least). 

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

"Toasty"? Soupy more like 


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Chunky Pea
21 June 2026 15:18:18

WBTs are also quite toasty (to say the least). 

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Looks hellish to be frank. 


Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

Rob K
21 June 2026 15:20:35
Arpege 12Z goes for 36C tomorrow, then 40C, 40C, 41C Tuesday to Thursday. Very consistent with the heat.

Minima on Thursday morning are a degree lower, a refreshing 28C in Somerset as opposed to 29C on the 6Z run.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Brian Gaze
21 June 2026 15:20:37
Devonian has started a thread to discuss the consequences of the heatwave. It's a good topic for a thread, and I've moved it to the UIA because politics is likely to be involved. The link is:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/Posts/t24648-June-2026-heatwave--discussion-of-the-consequences-for-people 


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Retron
21 June 2026 15:20:42
The Arpege (out for France only atm) has some 40s and the odd 41 over Wednesday and Thursday, but the night temperatures are bonkers. Here's 7AM BST on Thursday and Friday mornings...

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/29/21563/arpege_41_90_0cnq6.png  : 27s and 28s over the Westcountry and SW Wales, widely mid 20s+

UserPostedImage

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/22/6763/arpege_41_114_0ulc2.png  : 29 over the Midlands, 27s and 28s widely.

UserPostedImage

Even with a few degrees knocked off that'd be intolerable! 🥵


Leysdown, north Kent
Brian Gaze
21 June 2026 16:29:13
Arpege Tues 42C, Wed 41C, Thurs 41C

UserPostedImage

UserPostedImage

UserPostedImage


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Bertwhistle
21 June 2026 16:39:55

WBTs are also quite toasty (to say the least). 

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Ouch. So if it rained so intensely the air was saturated, 30 is the lowest it could get to?

British Guiana.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

scillydave
21 June 2026 16:40:23
So with the various models now firming up for the coming week we are staring down the barrel of what may well be the hottest 72hr period in recorded UK weather history. 

When I opened this thread there were tentative signs of a heatwave on the way but who'd have thought it would end up being the mother of all heatwaves?! Still time for that to change of course but it'd be a major shift at this stage.


Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.

Chunky Pea
21 June 2026 16:41:30
Animted gif of 850 temp anoms from WZ. A small but slow moving bubble of heat. (from GFS 12z run)

UserPostedImage


Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

Matty H
21 June 2026 16:44:20

About time for planning for the coming week ahead. May see a red if 40c is forecast I suspect.

Originally Posted by: BYF1 

Because it has a ‘4’ at the start of it? Why not if it was 39c? MetO criteria for a Red is based on

• Maximum daytime & overnight temperatures

• Humidity

• Duration of the heat

• Likelihood of severe impacts on health, transport, energy, and emergency services


Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

Matty H
21 June 2026 16:45:36

Because it has a ‘4’ at the start of it? Why not if it was 39c? MetO criteria for a Red is based on

• Maximum daytime & overnight temperatures

• Humidity

• Duration of the heat

• Likelihood of severe impacts on health, transport, energy, and emergency services

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

And for what it’s worth - unless there’s a short notice backtrack in the modelling, you’d say it’s highly likely there will be a Red. 


Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

Remove ads from site