Hot, I think, only by Retron's standards - looks like the maxima will be upper 20s rather than into the 30s, But I'm happy with that.

GFS has temps of 30 by early next week for the south. Hot enough for most. Not for myself, admittedly 

21-26C I like, it's classic UK summer weather.

31-36C is horrible.

And by the standards of NW England and most of the country, by geographical area at least.

Hot has a very specific definition as per the MetO - it's 6C or 7C above the 91-20 average, so would be 26 or 27 here in mid-June, for example. This weekend (and Monday) looks to be very warm, but it wouldn't take much to push it into the "hot" category! (And yes, as a nerd - I'd be called autistic these days - I do try and be precise with my terms).

You can see the definitions here:

https://community.netweather.tv/learning/basics/met-office-temperature-definitions-r70/ 

I'm not really convinced by that but we'll see how things develop. In the earlier AIFS update there was quite a well defined signal for pressure to fall next week, before ticking up again later in the month. 

Max temps for this area next week have fallen a couple of degrees with only Monday 25_26.After that down to low 20,s which is just right after the recent good rains.

I would think, though, that 'hot' is also how people feel. 20c in June under constant sunshine can feel 'hot' also, while 28c may feel 'nice' to some.  I get the need for scientific definitions, but in this case, subjectivity is a thing. 

Hate this model as they are horrible and ruining our summer so far so not a best model but worst one.  If this did not exist we will be having a heatwave on the way.   June still need to get to 36C or more to beat May 35.2C and this unsettled spell had been way outstayed it welcome after 24 hours.  Anything over 24hrs is outstayed it welcome.  Not sure why the drought thread still there we don't see any African drought in the UK at all in my life time.

That the reason why i refused to do weather data recording due to stupidity of this climate and not adhere as the season, I woul;d not like to see 35.2C in May then next month which is a summer month not going over 25C,  That fine if was August 35.2C and September get up to 25-27C but not acceptable for June to be colder than May.  Thankfully my conservatory is a life saver during this cold unsettled spell keeping my house warm as we get during warm spells at low 30's and low to mid 20's indoors as still we getting lot of sunshine inbetweeb rains.

It is annoyingly good atm. But its not perfect. 

GFS and ECM have produced decent runs this morning but unless AIFS is on board you have to question them. 

Don't shoot the messenger!

The weather is the weather, the models don't crate it.

Just ignore them, but the ensembles this morning show wild outliers like up to 20C uppers on the 22nd June date line.  Let see if this will be a trend or not as long AIFS doesn't spoil it.  For now it will be low to mid 20's here which is normal for late June warm spells.

To me it looks like the Beeb and Met may have gone a bit early on this weekend. 

Everyone is entitled to their own opinions of course regardless of whether I agree with that or not, but I absolutely hate when people complain about there being a drought thread on here, simply on the basis that we will never experience an African style drought. It is an obviously clear that we will never experience any African style droughts but this still doesn't mean to say that a lack of rainfall isn't a problem here at times.

With ongoing climate change as well, this is something which is only going to get worse over time and although this will probably never experience an actual African style drought, this is still going to generate a lot of problems and challenges for those of us who have to experience the impacts of that. For that reason, I believe that the drought thread has every right to exist on this forum, just like any other thread.

Back on topic, the models have been chopping and changing quite a lot in recent days as regard to this possible heatwave but even if that does end up happening, it would appear that this is now looking a bit like a south of England (and Wales) only event with Scotland completely missing out. In my books, I would say that if this heatwave doesn't end up happening, it will render this thread a complete waste of time so if I had my way, this thread wouldn't exist on here.

However, I also recognise that there is a very popular demand for it and it is for that reason, that I am more than happy for it to exist on here.

Has Moomin hijacked your account? It’s been garbage and flip flopped all over the place. It was poor last winter as well

It was the first to pick up the heatwave wasn't going to happen. And it isn't happening.  At one point it was the only model showing it wasn't going to happen. And all the other models have slowly but surely followed it.

AIFS isn't perfect far from it but it is the best, that is a statistical reality.