The Weather Outlook

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scillydave
07 June 2026 16:53:49
Given the current model output and the increasing interest I thought it worth opening a thread for this potential heatwave. 

At present it looks like starting around June 13th and running for some time after that. Plenty of 30c days to come based on current output. 


Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.

Brian Gaze
07 June 2026 17:08:45
Thanks. I've unstickied the May heatwatch thread so this one now takes precedence. GFS is blowing hot and cold, but this evening's 12Z update brings back the heat for a time. 

One thing I've noticed on some recent updates is that pressure quickly starts falling, so my hunch (and that's all it is) is we could be heading for a significantly thundery spell. (That's not hopecasting on my part because I'd much sooner have a long unbroken heatwave)

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Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Brian Gaze
07 June 2026 17:12:20
UK Met Global 12Z not without interest today.

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Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Ally Pally Snowman
07 June 2026 19:08:18
Roasting hot 12z AIFS and ECM. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
07 June 2026 19:13:02
ECM 12z looks like we'd be nudging mid 30s.
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Nick Gilly
07 June 2026 19:21:04
I'm off work for 2 weeks starting on the 15th, so any improvement to the current rubbish is very welcome!
Brian Gaze
07 June 2026 21:20:03
I think 35C is about the top in the ECMWF 12Z update today.

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Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Rob K
07 June 2026 22:18:29

Roasting hot 12z AIFS and ECM. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

AIFS doesn’t look that convincing as low pressure keeps reasserting itself. 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

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