May 2026 CET Competition, Discussion and Analysis· Page 2

GezM
Advanced Member

14 May 2026 15:50:55

#26

Hadley

10.9 to the 13th

0.3c below the 61 to 90 average

0.1c below the 91 to 20 average

Originally Posted by: Gavin D

Below average on both counts for now. Notwithstanding differences in calculations we don't see that very often these days

Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)

Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)

Bertwhistle
Advanced Member

15 May 2026 10:31:18

#27

Looks like possibly dropping below 10 before rising thereafter.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

wallaw
Advanced Member

15 May 2026 11:30:09

#28

Looks like possibly dropping below 10 before rising thereafter.

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle

I think most people will be too high this month.

Even with the warmer spell next week you would be surprised to see it climb back up beyond 11.5

Ian

Stockton-on-Tees

Gavin D
Advanced Member

15 May 2026 13:05:16

#29

Hadley

10.7 to the 14th

0.4c below the 61 to 90 average

0.4c below the 91 to 20 average

Saint Snow
Advanced Member

15 May 2026 14:02:07

#30

I think most people will be too high this month.

Even with the warmer spell next week you would be surprised to see it climb back up beyond 11.5

Originally Posted by: wallaw

Music to my ears - but I've been here before. I'm now expecting record-breaking warmth by the end of May, and the CET will end up about 13.5c

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

+3

Gavin D
Advanced Member

16 May 2026 13:27:17

#31

Hadley

10.6 to the 15th

0.6c below the 61 to 90 average

0.5c below the 91 to 20 average

+1

Bertwhistle
Advanced Member

17 May 2026 13:49:23

#32

HadCET 10.4°C to 16th. Hopefully the last drop and if current synoptics play out (look at the ENS means) I reckon 12+ by month's end.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Saint Snow
Advanced Member

17 May 2026 15:17:38

#33

HadCET 10.4°C to 16th. Hopefully the last drop and if current synoptics play out (look at the ENS means) I reckon 12+ by month's end.

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle

Hopefully stays below 12c 😊

I will say that north of the Midlands and further west, temps don't reach the heights shown for the SE.

Edited by user 17 May 2026 15:18:49 | Reason: Not specified

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Spring Sun Winter Dread
Advanced Member

17 May 2026 15:55:11

#34

It's always a bit of a relief nowadays to see a close to or below average month irrespective of one's guess.

They are becoming so rare and hard to achieve even with what look on paper to be the right synoptics. It looks like we will not get a 3rd successive hottest spring on record at least, that would have been truly ludicrous even for this warming climate.

+1

Bertwhistle
Advanced Member

18 May 2026 11:58:06

#35

Big turnaround in models with 6z GFS Op suggesting a week with CET minima around 15 and maxima around 25 or more. A week averaging just 19 starting on 22nd would lift the CET by one quarter of the difference between 19, and the CET average to 21st (which could be about 11 at best). This would take it to 13 by 28th.

Even in the 0z the Op dip was not mirrored by the majority of Ps, with the mean ignoring it completely.

Interesting 10 days ahead.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Gavin D
Advanced Member

18 May 2026 12:28:10

#36

Hadley

10.4 to the 17th

0.7c below the 61 to 90 average

0.7c below the 91 to 20 average

+1

Bertwhistle
Advanced Member

18 May 2026 13:08:05

#37

Losing the frosts / very cool nights will of course help. James (Stormchaser) has sometimes put an estimate in for month's end by this stage, based on model output. GW, who sadly no longer frequents the thread that I think he created, used to put out graphs as a prediction.

Anyone fancy a mid-month punt?

I feel fairly confident it'll exceed 12 (sorry Saint) but not sure how far up.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Ally Pally Snowman
Advanced Member

18 May 2026 18:53:23

#38

Losing the frosts / very cool nights will of course help. James (Stormchaser) has sometimes put an estimate in for month's end by this stage, based on model output. GW, who sadly no longer frequents the thread that I think he created, used to put out graphs as a prediction.

Anyone fancy a mid-month punt?

I feel fairly confident it'll exceed 12 (sorry Saint) but not sure how far up.

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle

If some of the more extreme Ops verify 13c ish is still possible.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

+1

Bertwhistle
Advanced Member

19 May 2026 12:21:50

#39

HadCET 10.4°C to 18th. So looks like it won't dip below 10 after all.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

four
Advanced Member

20 May 2026 12:46:48

#40

8.3C (-2.1C) here currently.

Not surprising after several frosts and a week of northerlies.

North York Moors weather

Gavin D
Advanced Member

20 May 2026 13:40:12

#41

Hadley

10.5 to the 19th

0.6c below the 61 to 90 average

0.7c below the 91 to 20 average

Gavin D
Advanced Member

21 May 2026 13:23:30

#42

Hadley

10.7 to the 20th

0.4c below the 61 to 90 average

0.5c below the 91 to 20 average

wallaw
Advanced Member

22 May 2026 07:41:28

#43

I think most people will be too high this month.

Even with the warmer spell next week you would be surprised to see it climb back up beyond 11.5

Originally Posted by: wallaw

I've got a feeling this is not going to age well

Ian

Stockton-on-Tees

Dickieboy68
Newbie

22 May 2026 10:05:21

#44

Buckle up everyone, .... 15 overnight low, 30 day high should give a +22.5 hit to the maths. Take off the 10.5 average so far leaves 12, divided over 22 to 24 days is going to give a +0.5 per day for 4 or 5 days..... -- ish.

Good luck everyone, I hope you get the weather you like. Cheers!

Dickieboy - In the deep mid-Wiltshire 85m ASL

Formerly Guest (16) since 2004