The Weather Outlook

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johncs2016
01 March 2026 10:11:50
As we have just entered a brand new season, it is now time for a new thread and as the winter thread was stickied, perhaps this will now be a good time to unsticky that other thread and ensure that this thread is used instead unless you want to use the winter thread to post any final statistics for the winter which has just passed.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

johncs2016
24 April 2026 20:57:06
Someone commented today in the CC thread that there wasn’t a spring thread this year. However, I actually created this thread back on 1 March but as the winter thread was still stickied at that time, everyone just kept using that one with this thread being completely forgotten as a result.

The purpose of this thread is therefore to bump it back up to the top of the list to remind everyone that it does actually exist on this forum.

With that in mind, yesterday was our sunniest day of this year so far with a total of 12.8 hours of sunshine at Edinburgh Gogarbank. With that, more sunshine has now been recorded this month than the 1991-2020 average which means that regardless of what happens during the rest of this month, this month will go down as being sunnier than average so just like last year, our exceptionally sunny spring goes on.

Until now, it had looked as though this month was going to be slightly wetter than average here but with little or no rain forecast between now and the end of the month, that is not likely to be the case after all.

As a result, this year is getting more and more like last year all the time. The only remaining difference is that by this time last year, we had already recorded our first 20+°C maximum of the year whereas that still hasn’t happened here so far this year, but I’m sure that even that will no doubt change before too long.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

Saint Snow
27 April 2026 09:12:26
I'm generally not bothered how spring weather goes, but when we get a lovely spell like this, I do love it.


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

johncs2016
27 April 2026 15:14:49
Today's weather forecast for here in Edinburgh was meant ti be relatively poor in comparison with other recent days and yet in spite of that, the Sun has continued to shine here for most of the time with the rain refusing to fall here.

That surely demonstrates once and for all that the weather at this time of the year barely ever changes from one day to the next regardless of what the actual weather forecasts might be saying, which means that we can't even trust these forecasts all that much any more as we already know what the actual weather is probably going to be like.

For that reason, it's just all become really boring, uninteresting and repetitive now and I fail to see as a result, why anyone can actually still be the least bit interested in our weather in spite of that.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

fairweather
10 May 2026 20:32:55
Is anybody else getting this diabolical Spring weather, particularly from a gardening perspective? It is now almost 3 months since the last "proper" meaningful rainfall. The top half of the 50 year old Silver Birch Tree hasn't even come into leaf. Never happened before. Talking to the other gardeners over the allotment this is the driest early Spring in living memory. The lawn is cracked and everywhere is dusty with the dust blowing around in the strong bitterly cold northerly that has set in. We urgently need at least 30mm of continuous rain and will be lucky to get 3mm in the next two weeks, at least. Seeds aren't germinating and the only things coping are perennial fruit bushes and rhubarb which are easy to water. Even the potatoes that have sprouted are starting to look a bit yellow and weak. The last two days at least brought some sun but that dried out any attempts at watering. 

Still, at least I've got the politics to cheer me up - Not!


S.Essex, 42m ASL
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11 May 2026 05:38:05
I do. It's perhaps worse than last Spring with the regular drying and now frigid winds making a garden nightmare!

If it was winter...

It's 'warmer' in Reykjavik and Akureyri as I type this, though they've been having significant late snows recently. 


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

Retron
11 May 2026 05:44:40

Is anybody else getting this diabolical Spring weather, particularly from a gardening perspective? It is now almost 3 months since the last "proper" meaningful rainfall. The top half of the 50 year old Silver Birch Tree hasn't even come into leaf. Never happened before. Talking to the other gardeners over the allotment this is the driest early Spring in living memory. The lawn is cracked and everywhere is dusty with the dust blowing around in the strong bitterly cold northerly that has set in. We urgently need at least 30mm of continuous rain and will be lucky to get 3mm in the next two weeks, at least. Seeds aren't germinating and the only things coping are perennial fruit bushes and rhubarb which are easy to water. Even the potatoes that have sprouted are starting to look a bit yellow and weak. The last two days at least brought some sun but that dried out any attempts at watering. 

Still, at least I've got the politics to cheer me up - Not!

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

It's been dry here too, of course, though so far there's not much sign of stress - the grass continues to grow, the trees are in leaf and bloom, the fuschia is bursting with flowers, etc, etc. And the thistles and nettles in the wild part of my garden are just as tall as ever! The only real sign is the cracks which have reappeared across the lawn, especially in the barer parts where my pup churned it up over the soggy winter. This can't last forever, but it shows how much water was stored up during winter not far below the surface. 

TBH I'm enjoying the cooler, fresher feel to things. It's a change to have temperatures around or even below average by day (the 91-20 average being 16 at this time of year here), and I'm sure it won't be too long before the usual heat returns. 

No frosts here since mid January, FWIW. SSTs are 14C in the Thames Estuary, the warmest of anywhere around the UK, and it's kept the nights generally warmer than elsewhere...

https://www.meteociel.fr/observations-meteo/temperature-de-la-mer.php 


Leysdown, north Kent
MRazzell
11 May 2026 08:25:02

Is anybody else getting this diabolical Spring weather, particularly from a gardening perspective? It is now almost 3 months since the last "proper" meaningful rainfall. The top half of the 50 year old Silver Birch Tree hasn't even come into leaf. Never happened before. Talking to the other gardeners over the allotment this is the driest early Spring in living memory. The lawn is cracked and everywhere is dusty with the dust blowing around in the strong bitterly cold northerly that has set in. We urgently need at least 30mm of continuous rain and will be lucky to get 3mm in the next two weeks, at least. Seeds aren't germinating and the only things coping are perennial fruit bushes and rhubarb which are easy to water. Even the potatoes that have sprouted are starting to look a bit yellow and weak. The last two days at least brought some sun but that dried out any attempts at watering. 

Still, at least I've got the politics to cheer me up - Not!

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

Don't panic Fw, i've booked Weds to Fri off this week to get some joinery done in my garden, so you should get some rain from Wednesday...


Far north of East Sussex. +150m asl.
Jiries
14 May 2026 08:39:16
Despite the very  cold weather lately the conservatory is a life line for me here keeping the house warm and still wearing shorts indoors.  Temperatures go to mid to high 20's lately but expecting to see first 40C next week warm up.  At least no heating needed as I read some are using the heating now.  Sunny spells now so should warm the house up again.
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14 May 2026 09:40:52

Despite the very  cold weather lately the conservatory is a life line for me here keeping the house warm and still wearing shorts indoors.  Temperatures go to mid to high 20's lately but expecting to see first 40C next week warm up.  At least no heating needed as I read some are using the heating now.  Sunny spells now so should warm the house up again.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

In the previous house we built a conservatory with double-glazed roof panels - a special glass that kept out some of the UV rays.

Underfloor heating made it a great place to sit in weather like this or indeed in any winter weather. Never reached 40C because of the glazing.

But never got cold either. I've just been to a local nursery down the road where they had a notable late frost last night, even with the winds! I'll be pleased to see the last of this Spring chill.


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

johncs2016
21 May 2026 07:18:54
In recent months, I have been commenting a lot on how sunny this spring has been so far with both March and April being even sunnier than those same months during last year's sunniest spring on record.

The end result of this is that more sunshine has already been recorded at Edinburgh Gogarbank this spring than the 1991-2020 average which means that regardless of what happens during the rest of this month, this spring will go down as being sunnier than average.

Sadly though, this month has not continued that trend in any way. As I write, we are now just over two thirds of the way through this month and yet, we still haven't even had a half of our 1991-2020 May average sunshine at Edinburgh Gogarbank. This means that unless we suddenly get a lot of sunshine in the last 10 days of this month (and today once again, starting on a dull note), this is going to end up being a very dull month for the time of year.

Since May is our sunniest month of the year on average according to the 1991-2020 averages, this could have a major impact on whether or not this year ends up being sunnier than average in the end because in order for that to happen, this is when we really need to be getting that sunshine.

In addition to that, this is also not going to bode very well for the coming summer if the sunshine doesn't return here very soon as one of the aspects which make up a decent summer (in my books, at least) is that it should be sunnier than average overall, in addition to being warmer and drier than average.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

speckledjim
21 May 2026 07:40:49

In recent months, I have been commenting a lot on how sunny this spring has been so far with both March and April being even sunnier than those same months during last year's sunniest spring on record.

The end result of this is that more sunshine has already been recorded at Edinburgh Gogarbank this spring than the 1991-2020 average which means that regardless of what happens during the rest of this month, this spring will go down as being sunnier than average.

Sadly though, this month has not continued that trend in any way. As I write, we are now just over two thirds of the way through this month and yet, we still haven't even had a half of our 1991-2020 May average sunshine at Edinburgh Gogarbank. This means that unless we suddenly get a lot of sunshine in the last 10 days of this month (and today once again, starting on a dull note), this is going to end up being a very dull month for the time of year.

Since May is our sunniest month of the year on average according to the 1991-2020 averages, this could have a major impact on whether or not this year ends up being sunnier than average in the end because in order for that to happen, this is when we really need to be getting that sunshine.

In addition to that, this is also not going to bode very well for the coming summer if the sunshine doesn't return here very soon as one of the aspects which make up a decent summer (in my books, at least) is that it should be sunnier than average overall, in addition to being warmer and drier than average.

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 

Lovely spell of sunny warm weather about to arrive in Edinburgh, have you not been looking at the forecast?


Thorner, West Yorkshire



Journalism is organised gossip

johncs2016
21 May 2026 08:04:31

Lovely spell of sunny warm weather about to arrive in Edinburgh, have you not been looking at the forecast?

Originally Posted by: speckledjim 

Yes I have, but it is important to remember that any forecast is merely a prediction and regardless of how likely that forecast's outcome actually is, there is always at least a very small chance that such a forecast could end up being completely wrong.

What I was highlighting was merely the fact that this could end up being a very dull month if that forecast of warmer and sunnier weather doesn't come off and so, that shouldn't in any way be taken to reflect what I think will actually end up happening, or the fact that I somehow haven't even looked at forecasts which are telling us otherwise.

If anything and given what this time of the year is normally like, I still wouldn't put it past this month to still end up being sunnier than average here in Edinburgh anyway and if you have been following my posts over recent years, I would have expected you to have guessed that this was actually how I was actually thinking despite detailing an outcome which would happen if that didn't come off.

If this month does end up being sunnier than average though, everything will then just become really boring once again as that would send a clear message that every month at this time of the year is always going to be sunnier than average regardless of how that has come about and my overall interest in the weather would just wane even more if that was to happen.

It is after all, the possibility that a certain month even at this time of the year might not be sunnier than average after all which makes it interesting even though it is the sunnier weather which I am usually looking for, and it is therefore these duller months which help us to  appreciate those sunnier months when they happen, rather than just simply taking them for granted as something which is generally always going to happen anyway.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

speckledjim
21 May 2026 08:32:58

Yes I have, but it is important to remember that any forecast is merely a prediction and regardless of how likely that forecast's outcome actually is, there is always at least a very small chance that such a forecast could end up being completely wrong.

What I was highlighting was merely the fact that this could end up being a very dull month if that forecast of warmer and sunnier weather doesn't come off and so, that shouldn't in any way be taken to reflect what I think will actually end up happening, or the fact that I somehow haven't even looked at forecasts which are telling us otherwise.

If anything and given what this time of the year is normally like, I still wouldn't put it past this month to still end up being sunnier than average here in Edinburgh anyway and if you have been following my posts over recent years, I would have expected you to have guessed that this was actually how I was actually thinking despite detailing an outcome which would happen if that didn't come off.

If this month does end up being sunnier than average though, everything will then just become really boring once again as that would send a clear message that every month at this time of the year is always going to be sunnier than average regardless of how that has come about and my overall interest in the weather would just wane even more if that was to happen.

It is after all, the possibility that a certain month even at this time of the year might not be sunnier than average after all which makes it interesting even though it is the sunnier weather which I am usually looking for, and it is therefore these duller months which help us to  appreciate those sunnier months when they happen, rather than just simply taking them for granted as something which is generally always going to happen anyway.

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 

That is one strange comment. Sunnier than average is now boring!! 


Thorner, West Yorkshire



Journalism is organised gossip

Devonian
21 May 2026 08:36:13

That is one strange comment. Sunnier than average is now boring!! 

Originally Posted by: speckledjim 

I think it is (I like weather that varies, if I didn't I could move to a desert - though it might come to me come August), but it's just a matter of opinion.

speckledjim
21 May 2026 08:40:00

I think it is (I like weather that varies, if I didn't I could move to a desert - though it might come to me come August), but it's just a matter of opinion.

Originally Posted by: Devonian 

Which is exactly what we get in this country. I'd certainly wouldn't find it boring though if we have sunnier than average months - doesn't mean it'll be sunny all the time. We ain't Spain.


Thorner, West Yorkshire



Journalism is organised gossip

Devonian
21 May 2026 08:54:48

Which is exactly what we get in this country. I'd certainly wouldn't find it boring though if we have sunnier than average months - doesn't mean it'll be sunny all the time. We ain't Spain.

Originally Posted by: speckledjim 

No classical UK variation this year. It's either constant heavy rain or semi drought. No snow (well, up here on Dartmoor we did see about 0.5mm of the stuff), no frost (again, we used to see -5C most every winter - not anymore), always mild (no month this year below average, no significantly cold month for years). 'ice days'? What are they? Pleasant  20-22C summers days? A thing of the past. Green summers with no drought worries? Gone. Wet summers when we wondered if we'd be able to even cut the barely? Gone.

johncs2016
21 May 2026 09:21:37

That is one strange comment. Sunnier than average is now boring!! 

Originally Posted by: speckledjim 

Yes, and if I made a similar comment just a few years ago, I would probably fully deserve to be carted off to the nearest psychiatric unit and sectioned under the mental health act as a result.

However, our weather does appear to be becoming sunnier and warmer on average (if anyone can come on here with any evidence which would suggest otherwise, I will be more than happy to see that and then, take that into consideration) with warm and sunny weather now increasingly becoming the norm for here which never used to be the case before.

Our weather used to be renowned for being changeable and more likely to be wet and unsettled but with this ever changing climate, that is increasingly becoming no longer the case any more.

All too often, our weather pattern gets stuck in a rut with the same weather persisting for weeks or sometimes even months at times and all too often, I am able a report a particular day's weather as a result, just by copying and pasting the report from the previous day and when it becomes increasingly like that, any interest in our actual weather just isn't going to be there any more and although the weather can still sometimes be changeable at time as we've seen just recently with that colder and duller weather which we've just had, our weather just isn't as changeable any more as it used to be.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

speckledjim
21 May 2026 09:41:14

No classical UK variation this year. It's either constant heavy rain or semi drought. No snow (well, up here on Dartmoor we did see about 0.5mm of the stuff), no frost (again, we used to see -5C most every winter - not anymore), always mild (no month this year below average, no significantly cold month for years). 'ice days'? What are they? Pleasant  20-22C summers days? A thing of the past. Green summers with no drought worries? Gone. Wet summers when we wondered if we'd be able to even cut the barely? Gone.

Originally Posted by: Devonian 

Not true e.g. we had a very wet summer in 2024. Winters are certainly milder but in my location we still get snow every year and in Spring/Summer/Autumn we get warm, cool, wet, dry and on occasions some extremes.


Thorner, West Yorkshire



Journalism is organised gossip

Devonian
24 May 2026 16:51:01

Not true e.g. we had a very wet summer in 2024. Winters are certainly milder but in my location we still get snow every year and in Spring/Summer/Autumn we get warm, cool, wet, dry and on occasions some extremes.

Originally Posted by: speckledjim 

I'm speaking from my experience in Devon, wrt the spring rainfall thread too. I don't doubt your observations from Yorkshire 👍

Chunky Pea
24 May 2026 17:15:23

Which is exactly what we get in this country. I'd certainly wouldn't find it boring though if we have sunnier than average months - doesn't mean it'll be sunny all the time. We ain't Spain.

Originally Posted by: speckledjim 

The UK, like here, has varied weather, but those variations are typically equally as boring as any 'constants'. 


Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

Chunky Pea
24 May 2026 17:19:35

That is one strange comment. Sunnier than average is now boring!! 

Originally Posted by: speckledjim 

I'd give Dev a month in my location. I guarantee he would never complain about 'sunnier than average' again! 


Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

fairweather
27 May 2026 00:16:10
The biggest problem with the weather down here these days is it is never ever "changeable"   which has always struck me as a bit stupid as no time scale is mentioned. I'm sick of it to be honest. If you get a weather type you are stuck with it for weeks on end. Virtually no rain now since mid March and little sign of any. Weeks of dry, cold and quite cloudy weather to a couple of weeks now of clear blue skies, still dry and now stupidly hot. I'm glad of the heat from my statistical point of view but I mean 33.6C here is no use to anybody. Too hot to sunbathe, certainly to hot to do any outdoor work. In fact the only thing it's good for is skin cancer!
S.Essex, 42m ASL
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27 May 2026 05:46:03
For another 'boring' climate, try parts of the Philippines. A long dry monsoon season, usually with NE winds followed by a long wet monsoon with winds mostly from the SW. High humidity too year-round, which puts the UK to shame. Some incredible rainstorms and thunder at times but generally, I found day after day/month after month of hot NE winds in their 'summer' season January to late May became boring. A bit like it has been here in the past few days. Of course, you get typhoons. Those aren't boring.
Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

fairweather
30 May 2026 14:03:26
Having waited three months for rain I am holiday in the Yorkshire Dales from tomorrow till Tuesday. Why do I always get the weather I don't want? The only time since march I wouldn't have minded a couple of days of sun! Still on the bright side there might even be a couple of millimetres back in Essex.
S.Essex, 42m ASL

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