The 23rd is our first serious chance it seems.

23 31.7 89.0 Isle of Grain (Kent) 1922

24 32.2* 90.0* Camden Square (London) 1922

25 31.7 89.0 Farnham (Surrey) 1953

26 29.5* 85.1* Inverailort (Highland) 2012

27 31.4 88.5 Gravesend Broadness (Kent) 2005

28 30.6* 87.0* Camden Square (London) 1944

What is surprising is how long ago some of those records are. 31.7 on the 23rd 1922. What does that equate to now with the added AGW.?

Kew (a station which has recent data) has its maxima increased by 1.3C in May from 61-90 to 91-20. Earlier data isn't available for free, but looking at the CET (which hasn't increased by as much in temperature as London and Kent has), we see an increase of 0.8C in the same period. Going back 100 years though is much trickier!

The CET for 1911-1940, i.e. the period of that record, was only 0.4C below the 1991-2020 period, it seems to have been a warmer period in general than the 61-90 era. Moving the window 10 years earlier or 10 years later shows temperatures 0.2C lower than that, so 1922 was in the peak of a warmer period (albeit still colder than what we have now). I'm assuming the relative warmth affected the whole country.

So adding that all in, you'd expect something like 32.8, maybe a few tenths of a degree higher, given the exact same setup today. Note this is for Grain, the London reading on the 24th would inflate by a similar amount

The 1922 heatwave would have been pretty remarkable at the time regardless!

GFS, meanwhile, has 25 on Saturday and nothing higher than 23s on the other days. That feels more likely to me - I would expect the peak of the heat to be over western or NW London and areas close by to the north and west, not down here on the coast. We'll see!

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/signal#rep527 

Awful. 

If it happens it's my worst fear coming true. God only know what next year will be like. At least I'm aware of why, though in most ways I'd rather I wasn't.

Yes, people seem happy to sleep walk into this new world of extremes; not only that but extreme heat waves that seem to appear from nowhere.  This isn’t normal, it’s worrying; indeed when you project this forward, with the rate things are changing, it’s beyond worrying.

Eh? What is the average person who understands what is happening going to do apart from everyday life.Who are these sleepwalkers exactly?

Regarding the forecast heatwave did they in 1922 say , it's worrying,not normal?

There's an argument to say that the everyday person could change their lifestyle/habits to mitigate the effects of climate change - but that's one for another thread!

As for 1922 I'm sure they did say that it wasn't normal and I imagine that if it were set in the same context as now (a rapidly warming climate) that there'd be some who thought it was worrying too.

That GEM 0z run is truly extraordinary - in the very unlikely event that it came to pass it would be one of the most extreme weather events in terms of temperature ever recorded in the UK in any month. 

For example it has max temps nearing 35c for 4 days in a row. To put that into context since records beganwe've only had the temperature reach 35c for 3 consecutive days once (as far as I'm aware) - that was in the infamous 2020 heatwave.

1976, 1990, 2003... to name a few.

Yes 03 , 90 and 76 all had 3 35c days in a row.

I think that's it. 2020 had six 34c + days in a row . 

I dont think this May spell will get to 35c but the record is definitely under threat 32.8c I think although TORRO has a dodgy 33.4c in there as well.

To satisfy my curiosity I've checked and you're right that 1990 did have 3 days in a row above 35c although interestingly 

1976 didn't. It had 5 days exceeding 35c but they were spread out.

And again 2003 had 3 days but again they weren't consecutive (6th, 9th and 10th).

FWIW I very much doubt we'll see anything near 35c though the May record does look under threat. It was more the extremeness (if that's a word!) of the GEM run that I thought was interesting. 

I was relying on AI, so well done. 

AIFS AND ECM both also exceptionally hot so you never know. Interesting event coming up.

Looks like MetUKv joins the party with the heatwave - two consecutive days at the end of the run with temps at 35c.

It's going to be an interesting week ahead!

Uncomfortable you mean!  At least the world cup hasnt started yet, or we would be seeing drunken louts everywhere causing trouble 

Unprecedented is a word often used but it'd be justified if this run is on the money.

GFS has 26C with easterly winds.

The sea is presently 13C, and I can't see how we'd get anywhere near 30C with a breeze coming off that - I would expect mid 20s tops. I do note, however, that the GFS has been playing "catch up" with MetO, temperatures rising a degree or two each day in its forecast...