The Weather Outlook

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johncs2016
01 May 2026 06:39:22
Some of you might find it rather strange that I'm starting this thread just now given the constant ongoing lack of rainfall which we are seeing throughout the UK just now and indeed, there are still no real signs of any properly unsettled weather on the horizon according to the latest model output.

However, the latest forecasts do still suggest that there is a possible increased risk of showers or thunderstorms in the next few days as we enter into a much slacker weather pattern than of late. As any showery weather is always very hit and miss, it's likely that a lot of places might still continue to remain dry but the fact that these showers or thunderstorms are possible means that other locations might end up being badly impacted by that. This means that any forum members living in those areas will probably have something to report on here from that as a result.

Regardless of how this month pans out, this is the very place to report those all important rainfall totals for this month. Given the ongoing lack of rainfall though and in order to generate some purpose for this particular thread, you can if you wish to, comment on the ongoing lack of rainfall in your area during this month if that ends up being the case.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

sunny coast
02 May 2026 05:25:01
A few spits and spots this eve to start May  with some great channel lightning to the south  east 
johncs2016
02 May 2026 06:23:06
The latest rainfall data for Edinburgh Gogarbank is as follows:

Data For Recent Days

Total since 10 am BST (09:00 UTC) yesterday morning: 4.0 mm (as at 6:40 am BST (05:40 UTC) this morning on Saturday 2 May 2026)

Monthly Data

Total for this month so far: 4.0 mm (8.0% of 1991-2020 May average)

Number of rain days during this month: 1 (9.3% of 1991-2020 May average)

Number of dry days during this month: 0

Seasonal Data

Total for this spring so far: 104.0 mm (70.0% of 1991-2020 spring average)

Number of rain days during this spring: 24 (79.3% of 1991-2020 spring average)

Number of dry days during this spring: 28

Annual Data

Total for this year so far: 216.2 mm (27.6% of 1991-2020 annual average)

Number of rain days during this year: 55 (40.0% of 1991-2020 annual average)

Number of dry days during this year: 40

Note

This data has been obtained from https://www.ogimet.com  in raw BUFR format, and then converted into a more readable form by my own python script.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
03 May 2026 06:35:10
For all that Chris Fawkes last night was getting excited about shelf and funnel clouds, all there was IMBY was an hour's steady rain yesterday afternoon (no gauge, but guess about 5mm) - welcome, but a long way from the prolonged heavy rain forecast for yesterday evening which would have been even more welcome.
War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

speckledjim
03 May 2026 07:09:30
Got more rain last night than in the whole of April -  20mm and still falling. Very welcome indeed
Thorner, West Yorkshire



Journalism is organised gossip

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
03 May 2026 07:19:46
5.5mm in my gauge here which, as you say, is welcome but hardly the stuff gardeners and farmers' dreams are made of.

The same kind of synoptics occurred, if I remember correctly last year, only with the arrival of the precipitation coinciding with either a splitting of the clouds or the water evaporating high up. Yesterday, the radar promised so much but for so little. The experts are missing something, if I can more or less predict the outcome of the rain as it arrives, as I did yesterday.

Today the BBC tell me: In the afternoon, sunny spells will develop, but there will also be a chance of the odd shower. A rumble of thunder cannot be completely ruled out. I think I can rule out the rumble of thunder part without fear of being wrong. The next prediction of rain is for Wednesday, when "rain cannot be ruled out under the thickest cloud". In other words, a few spots are possible. I'm planning an outdoor shoot on Tuesday when the prediction is for sunny spells. I hope it is for this day.


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
03 May 2026 07:38:09

5.5mm in my gauge here which, as you say, is welcome but hardly the stuff gardeners and farmers' dreams are made of.

The same kind of synoptics occurred, if I remember correctly last year, only with the arrival of the precipitation coinciding with either a splitting of the clouds or the water evaporating high up. Yesterday, the radar promised so much but for so little. The experts are missing something, if I can more or less predict the outcome of the rain as it arrives, as I did yesterday.

Today the BBC tell me: In the afternoon, sunny spells will develop, but there will also be a chance of the odd shower. A rumble of thunder cannot be completely ruled out. I think I can rule out the rumble of thunder part without fear of being wrong. The next prediction of rain is for Wednesday, when "rain cannot be ruled out under the thickest cloud". In other words, a few spots are possible. I'm planning an outdoor shoot on Tuesday when the prediction is for sunny spells. I hope it is for this day.

Originally Posted by: NMA 

I too remember this happening on a frequent basis last year (at least for south central England) to the extent that it became predictable; and 'predictable' implies that there is some cause which could be built into rainfall models.


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
03 May 2026 08:32:52

I too remember this happening on a frequent basis last year (at least for south central England) to the extent that it became predictable; and 'predictable' implies that there is some cause which could be built into rainfall models.

Originally Posted by: DEW 

That's exactly what I thought. I was sure there had to be a cause but what was it?


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

fairweather
03 May 2026 09:53:01

5.5mm in my gauge here which, as you say, is welcome but hardly the stuff gardeners and farmers' dreams are made of.

The same kind of synoptics occurred, if I remember correctly last year, only with the arrival of the precipitation coinciding with either a splitting of the clouds or the water evaporating high up. Yesterday, the radar promised so much but for so little. The experts are missing something, if I can more or less predict the outcome of the rain as it arrives, as I did yesterday.

Today the BBC tell me: In the afternoon, sunny spells will develop, but there will also be a chance of the odd shower. A rumble of thunder cannot be completely ruled out. I think I can rule out the rumble of thunder part without fear of being wrong. The next prediction of rain is for Wednesday, when "rain cannot be ruled out under the thickest cloud". In other words, a few spots are possible. I'm planning an outdoor shoot on Tuesday when the prediction is for sunny spells. I hope it is for this day.

Originally Posted by: NMA 

Spare a thought for me. The last time I had over 5mm of rain in a day was February 18th! Last night I had some light rain on and off for about half an hour producing a grand total 0.7mm. That converted the 1mm layer of dust and pollen on my car to a load of splodges! I've had just 3mm (including that) in the last 7 weeks! Water butts have been empty for two weeks. How am I supposed to grow anything over my allotment (although potatoes and fruit bushes look ok so far)? Not looking like much to come either. 


S.Essex, 42m ASL
johncs2016
03 May 2026 09:56:15
The latest rainfall data for Edinburgh Gogarbank is as follows:

Data For Recent Days

24 hour total up to 10 am BST (09:00 UTC) yesterday morning: 4.0 mm

Total since 10 am BST (09:00 UTC) yesterday morning: 8.2 mm (as at 9:40 am BST (08:40 UTC) this morning on Sunday 3 May 2026)

Monthly Data

Total for this month so far: 12.2 mm (24.3% of 1991-2020 May average)

Number of rain days during this month: 2 (18.6% of 1991-2020 May average)

Number of dry days during this month: 0

Seasonal Data

Total for this spring so far: 112.2 mm (75.5% of 1991-2020 spring average)

Number of rain days during this spring: 25 (82.6% of 1991-2020 spring average)

Number of dry days during this spring: 28

Annual Data

Total for this year so far: 224.4 mm (28.6% of 1991-2020 annual average)

Number of rain days during this year: 56 (40.7% of 1991-2020 annual average)

Number of dry days during this year: 40

Note

This data has been obtained from https://www.ogimet.com  in raw BUFR format, and then converted into a more readable form by my own python script.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

tierradelfuego
03 May 2026 11:26:09
4mm yesterday, 4mm for the month.
Bucklebury

West Berkshire Downs AONB

135m ASL

VP2 with daytime FARS

Rainfall collector separated at ground level

Anemometer separated above roof level

WeatherLink Live (Byles Green Crew )

sunny coast
03 May 2026 19:17:42
Managed 10mm here just outside eastbourne useful rain but was pretty short lived 4 to 5pm then a heavier pulse aeound 8pm 
fairweather
03 May 2026 19:19:08

Spare a thought for me. The last time I had over 5mm of rain in a day was February 18th! Last night I had some light rain on and off for about half an hour producing a grand total 0.7mm. That converted the 1mm layer of dust and pollen on my car to a load of splodges! I've had just 3mm (including that) in the last 7 weeks! Water butts have been empty for two weeks. How am I supposed to grow anything over my allotment (although potatoes and fruit bushes look ok so far)? Not looking like much to come either. 

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

I knew if I moaned enough something would happen. Just had a small shower that developed close by and intensified and stayed over me for 30 minutes. Quite moderate and gave me 2.1mm. So plus last night's 0.7mm I now have 2.8mm which is more than April's total. 😂


S.Essex, 42m ASL
speckledjim
04 May 2026 06:10:46
28mm mtd
Thorner, West Yorkshire



Journalism is organised gossip

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
04 May 2026 06:39:42

The same kind of synoptics occurred, if I remember correctly last year, only with the arrival of the precipitation coinciding with either a splitting of the clouds or the water evaporating high up. Yesterday, the radar promised so much but for so little. The experts are missing something, if I can more or less predict the outcome of the rain as it arrives, as I did yesterday.

Originally Posted by: NMA 

Another instance showing up in the MetO rainfall chart for Thursday - at least it's predicted this time


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

fairweather
04 May 2026 14:23:52
Looking back, not had 10mm or more in a day since mid February and 18 months since we had an inch of rain in a day.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Northern Sky
04 May 2026 16:46:49
21mm here so far.
fairweather
05 May 2026 22:35:51
Tonight's rain over London completely missed me to the west by about 10 miles.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
fairweather
07 May 2026 13:02:20
Some rainfall stats for here for the last 8 weeks. Total 9.8mm. Daily rainfall maximum 2.5mm. Dry days 46 which doesn't even include traces of 0.3mm through melted frost or a minor shower.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
08 May 2026 20:33:27
From the Vine House farm (Lincolnshire) newsletter

The dry weather continues. We’ve been drilling the fields where the seeds would grow and irrigating other fields first, then drilling them. We have some fields which we can’t irrigate, so if we don’t get any rain, we won’t be drilling them. The winds in the last few days of April were very searching and really dried out the land.


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
09 May 2026 11:59:24

From the Vine House farm (Lincolnshire) newsletter

The dry weather continues. We’ve been drilling the fields where the seeds would grow and irrigating other fields first, then drilling them. We have some fields which we can’t irrigate, so if we don’t get any rain, we won’t be drilling them. The winds in the last few days of April were very searching and really dried out the land.

Originally Posted by: DEW 

Unsettled, sometimes chilly but very dry, summarises this Spring here. 


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

johncs2016
09 May 2026 12:45:12
The latest rainfall data for Edinburgh Gogarbank is as follows:

Data For Recent Days

24 hour total up to 10 am BST (09:00 UTC) this morning: 1.6 mm

Total since 10 am BST (09:00 UTC) this morning: 0.0 mm (as at 12:40 pm BST (11:40 UTC) this afternoon on Saturday 9 May 2026)

Monthly Data

Total for this month so far: 14.2 mm (28.3% of 1991-2020 May average)

Number of rain days during this month: 3 (27.9% of 1991-2020 May average)

Number of dry days during this month: 5

Seasonal Data

Total for this spring so far: 114.2 mm (76.9% of 1991-2020 spring average)

Number of rain days during this spring: 26 (86.0% of 1991-2020 spring average)

Number of dry days during this spring: 33

This means that only at least another 5 official rain days need to be recorded between now and the end of this month in order for this spring to

go down as being wetter than average in terms of the number of rain days.

Annual Data

Total for this year so far: 226.4 mm (28.9% of 1991-2020 annual average)

Number of rain days during this year: 57 (41.5% of 1991-2020 annual average)

Number of dry days during this year: 45

Note

This data has been obtained from https://www.ogimet.com  in raw BUFR format, and then converted into a more readable form by my own python script.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

speckledjim
10 May 2026 07:52:23
30mm mtd
Thorner, West Yorkshire



Journalism is organised gossip

Devonian
10 May 2026 08:27:57

Unsettled, sometimes chilly but very dry, summarises this Spring here. 

Originally Posted by: NMA 

15mm here so far this month.

Unsettled but dry is a bit like reading 'hot but cold' but I'm an 'old climate' not 'new climate' bloke. Now we have monsoons and dry seasons.

I'm hoping for a wet summer - but I fear I'll be wrong. I hate dust and a semi desert countryside. Again, that's probably because of my age.

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
10 May 2026 09:29:29

15mm here so far this month.

Unsettled but dry is a bit like reading 'hot but cold' but I'm an 'old climate' not 'new climate' bloke. Now we have monsoons and dry seasons.

I'm hoping for a wet summer - but I fear I'll be wrong. I hate dust and a semi desert countryside. Again, that's probably because of my age.

Originally Posted by: Devonian 

A grammatical contradiction or not, perhaps to see who picks it up! Thank you Peter. It goes on and on this long dry but might change this week to wetter here. But... An unsettling chill wind today. Not pleasant sitting out in my Mediterranean Garden so I won't.

Hot Chip - Joy in Repetition. No, no, no.


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

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