8.1 to the 15th

2.5c above the 61 to 90 average

1.9c above the 91 to 20 average

8.0 to the 16th

2.4c above the 61 to 90 average

1.7c above the 91 to 20 average

8.3 to the 17th

2.6c above the 61 to 90 average

1.9c above the 91 to 20 average

FFS

8.5 to the 18th

2.8c above the 61 to 90 average

2.1c above the 91 to 20 average

That could well remain the theme for the next few days, with the clear weather having been extended into the weekend.

Even so, I'm not relaxing CET-wise as there continues to be a wide range of scenarios for next week, including ones which involve cold air incursions on both 26th and 30th or 31st.

Indeed. Even with the extended sunny period, nights are likely to be cool in the CET area which will balance the day time warmth out. Then the latest Ops models are intensifying the cool spell from Wednesday. If that transpires the CET could drop to nearer 8.0 by the end of next week. 

This is possibly because so many warm Marches are driven by dry and sunny setups which favour high maxima but not so much the minima. Possibly if/when we do get a record breaker it will need to be a month with some grey /wet stuff mixed in to pump up those night temps

8.5 to the 20th

2.9c above the 61 to 90 average

2.1c above the 91 to 20 average

8.5 to the 21st

2.9c above the 61 to 90 average

2.1c above the 91 to 20 average

8.4 to the 22nd

2.8c above the 61 to 90 average

1.9c above the 91 to 20 average

Hadley

8.4 to the 23rd

2.8c above the 61 to 90 average

1.9c above the 91 to 20 average

Drop, you b***ard!!!!

🤣

8.4 to the 24th

2.8c above the 61 to 90 average

1.9c above the 91 to 20 average

8.3 to the 25th

2.7c above the 61 to 90 average

1.7c above the 91 to 20 average

Interesting thoughts Spring.

I note that the two 9+ Marches of 1938 and 1957 had both high maxima and minima- and yet 1938 had its fair share of HP at least over England and in the first half. 1957 had a rare early plume with 15°C uppers over parts of the SW. The mean maximum in 1938 was quite exceptional, and leads the CET table by a fair margin, but without any particularly exceptional days- there just weren't any cold (or even cool) days all month. 1957 was cool on 5th but otherwise not, and had a run of noteworthy warmth just before mid month.

Although 1938 had only one CET air frost, the temperature fell below 2°C every day from 2nd to 9th, reflecting the HP early on. 

1957 also had one air frost but from 7th to 20th inc. (14 days) the CET min failed to fall below 5°C.

Two very different creatures but fascinating in their own ways.

8.2 to the 26th

2.6c above the 61 to 90 average

1.6c above the 91 to 20 average

8.2 to the 27th

2.6c above the 61 to 90 average

1.6c above the 91 to 20 average

8.1 to the 28th

2.5c above the 61 to 90 average

1.4c above the 91 to 20 average

8.1 to the 29th

2.4c above the 61 to 90 average

1.4c above the 91 to 20 average

😃😃😃😃

I've got my fingers crossed too! I went for 8.05c ...

Mind you I had one of the largest margins of error last month so it'll be nice to have one of the smallest!

8.1 to the 30th

2.4c above the 61 to 90 average

1.3c above the 91 to 20 average

My error this month will fall into what I'd usually consider very good, however the spread of estimates for this month was no narrow that it won't help me out much... typical 😆

Wallaw then tops the table despite a 1.0°C error for February.

The mean error across all entrants would then be just 0.3°C which must be among the lowest on record and is all the more impressive considering the month was 1.43°C above the 1991-2020 average.