To help you decide here are the ghosts of March past...

March Historical Statistics

All-time CET  Average 5.42c

1991 – 2020 Average  6.74c

All time

Warmest

1957    9.20

1938    9.10

2017    8.80

2012    8.40

1997    8.30

Coldest

1674    1.0

1785    1.2

1748    1.8

1883    1.9

1845    2.0

Since 1970

Warmest

2017    8.8

1997    8.4

2012    8.4

1990    8.3

2024    8.2

Coldest

2013    2.8

1970    3.7

1987    4.1

1996    4.5

1979    4.7        also 1980, 1984 & 1985 all at 4.7

Last 5 Years

2025     7.9

2024     8.2

2023    7.0

2022    8.0

2021    7.3

A reminder to get those March CET predictions in by midnight on the 28th February. Late penalties will apply.

My March stab in the dark is for a much warmer than average 8.05c

I'll go for 8.3.

Thanks Gavin, much appreciated. 

8.0C. I reckon there could be some nice spells of spring weather.  🙂🙂🙂

If it doesn't then we're probably looking at another impressively warm month relative to average. The CET to 5th may well be the warmest on record for up to that point. Less clear thereafter as GFS keeps bringing a cooler interlude this Fri-Sat but ECMWF's modelling hasn't been all that interested.

8.3 to the 1st

3.7c above the 61 to 90 average

3.3c above the 91 to 20 average

9.9 to the 2nd

4.3c above the 61 to 90 average

4.9c above the 91 to 20 average

9.5 to the 3rd

3.8c above the 61 to 90 average

4.5c above the 91 to 20 average

Good luck this month!

March CET Predictions 2026

WindyWillow                    8.6

Ally Pally Snowman          8.6

Stormchaser                     8.54

Rick M                              8.45

Redmoons                        8.45

Bolty                                 8.3

GezM                                8.25

Lanky                                8.24

Spring Sun Winter Dread 8.2

DingleRob                         8.2

Wallaw                              8.05

Scillydave                          8.05

Hungry Tiger                     8

Kendalian                          7.95

Jemblow*                          7.9

Sussex snow magnet**     7.9

Snowshoe                         7.8

SaintSnow                         7.8

Magda*                             7.7

Dickieboy68                      7.68

Domma                             7.6

Caz                                    7.5

Grandad                            7.5

March CET                        5.42

9.3 to the 4th

3.6c above the 61 to 90 average

4.4c above the 91 to 20 average

9.5 to the 5th

3.9c above the 61 to 90 average

4.5c above the 91 to 20 average

9.0 to the 6th

3.4c above the 61 to 90 average

3.8c above the 91 to 20 average

8.6 to the 7th

2.9c above the 61 to 90 average

3.2c above the 91 to 20 average

So it seems the CET will gradually drift closer to average, but starting from so high up that it could still be somewhere in the 8s in a fortnight's time judging by recent GFS runs and accounting for typical bias.

Complicating the picture, quite a few of the overnight ECMWF ensemble runs bring a change to mild or very mild weather from around 17th. If that happened a final CET in the 9s would be back on the cards.

8.4 to the 8th

2.8c above the 61 to 90 average

2.9c above the 91 to 20 average

8.4 to the 9th

2.8c above the 61 to 90 average

2.8c above the 91 to 20 average

8.5 to the 10th

2.8c above the 61 to 90 average

2.7c above the 91 to 20 average

It appears the final third of the month may feature some appreciably warm days, but with the possibility of a colder finish to keep us on our toes.

1997 was very toasty before mid month as well (again though perhaps pulled down by nights as it was very settled/clear nights etc). I'm sure there's a statto that will be able to reel off all the numbers but would be very surprised if this year was a record.

Edit: OK just checked and 2025 is nowhere near ! Too many warm years and spells and it is easy to lose perspective on what is normal 

8.6 to the 11th

2.9c above the 61 to 90 average

2.7c above the 91 to 20 average

8.4 to the 13th

2.8c above the 61 to 90 average

2.4c above the 91 to 20 average

Up to 13th it's the 5th warmest on record for mean CET by my calculations.

Still quite a range to the plausible whole-month CET. For example the GFS 00z gave me an estimate in the mid-8s but the 06z one in the mid-7s °C!

Normally in the 2nd half of March, the odds are in favour of holding up an anomalously high CET, even if the anomaly reduces quite a bit, due to how much the climatological mean warms. The 1991-2020 average for 1st-15th March is 6.14°C, while for 16th-31st it's 7.33°C.

So usually I'd be feeling fairly comfortable at the moment despite having made such a high estimate. However, there are enough scenarios akin to the GFS 06z floating around that I'm rather nervous instead!

8.2 to the 14th

2.6c above the 61 to 90 average

2.1c above the 91 to 20 average