The Weather Outlook

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Brian Gaze
20 February 2026 11:57:48
The meteorological winter has now ended. Using data from the Met Office, the Central England Temperature (CET) appears to be the 15th mildest in the series. For December, January and February it was 6.1°C. February finished at a very mild 7.2°C.

Given the background signals and synoptic patterns, I think that is noteworthy in itself. When looked at across the UK as a whole, the picture will be different due to the more frequent incursions of colder air in the north.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/cet.aspx 

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Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Brian Gaze
27 February 2026 08:23:05
Provisional stats from the UK Met:

UK as a whole 9% wetter than average, but parts of southern England are on course for their second wettest winter on record, while much of north west Scotland has been significantly drier than normal.

Temperatures above average, but some colder interludes with significant snow in places. [source: BBC]


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

David M Porter
27 February 2026 16:12:24
Hi Brian, did the winter pan out pretty much as you predicted in your winter forecast? I think you mentioned in it that you thought the best chance of a cold spell would be around the turn of the year with mild weather dominating early on and again towards the end, which is what has happened. 


Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

johncs2016
01 March 2026 12:01:52
Given below are the final winter statistics for Edinburgh Gogarbank from all of the data which I have available which are:

Temperature (°C)

Lowest Minimum:                                                                                                 -5.31 (on 7/1/26)

Highest Minimum:                                                                                                9.66 (on 24/2/26)

Mean Minimum:                                                                                                     2.39

Minimum Anomaly:                                                                                              +0.88

Lowest Maximum:                                                                                                  0.69 (on 8/1/26)

Highest Maximum:                                                                                                 16.58 (on 9/12/25)

Mean Maximum:                                                                                                      7.55

Maximum Anomaly:                                                                                                +0.41

Lowest Average:                                                                                                       -2.18 (on 8/1/26)

Highest Average:                                                                                                      12.15 (on 9/12/25)

Average Temperature:                                                                                            4.97

Average Anomaly:                                                                                                    +0.64

Lowest Diurnal Temperature Range:                                                               0.96 (on 24/1/26)

Highest Diurnal Temperature Range:                                                              11.77 (on 15/1/26)

Average Diurnal Temperature Range:                                                              5.08

Other Temperature Statistics

Minimum Temperatures Below -10°C:                                                             0

Single Figures Maximum Temperatures:                                                        74

Single Figures Minimum Temperatures:                                                         69

Double Figures Maximum Temperatures:                                                      16

Double Figures Minimum Temperatures:                                                       0

Number of Frosts

 Ground Frosts:                                                                                                          37

Air Frosts:                                                                                                                     21 (70.7% of 1991-2020 winter average)

Ice Days:                                                                                                                        0

Snow Depths (cm)

Highest Snow Depth:                                                                                               0.0

Days With Lying Snow:                                                                                            0

Rainfall (mm)

Total for winter:                                                                                                           185.8 (88.9% of 1991-2020 winter average)

Wettest Day:                                                                                                                  21.0 (on 7/12/25)

Highest Hourly Total:                                                                                                 5.8 (on 7/12/25 at 17:00)

Highest Ten Minute Total:                                                                                        1.4 (on 1/12/25 at 21:30)

Rain Days:                                                                                                                       42 (113.3% of 1991-2020 winter average)

Dry Days:                                                                                                                         23

Longest Dry Spell                                                                                                         5 days (1/1 to 5/1)

Longest Non-Dry Spell                                                                                              15 days (16/1 to 30/1)

Most Consecutive Rain Days                                                                                   5 days (7/12 to 11/12, 20/1 to 24/1)

Longest Period Without a Rain Day:                                                                    10 days (22/12 to 31/12)

Month with lowest rainfall total:                                                                            January 2026: 46.2 (63.3% of 1991-2020 January average)

Month with highest rainfall total:                                                                          December 2025: 73.6 (98.3% of 1991-2020 December average)

Month with fewest rain days:                                                                                   December 2025: 11 (84.1% of 1991-2020 December average)

Month with most rain days:                                                                                      February 2026: 16 (149.5% of 1991-2020 February average)

Wind Speed (mph)

Average Mean Wind Speed:                                                                                       9.4 (87.9% of 1991-2020 winter average)

Highest Mean Wind Speed:                                                                                        32.2 (on 14/12/25)

Highest Wind Gust:                                                                                                        51.0 (on 9/12/25)

Most Common Wind Direction                                                                                  E

Pressure (mb)

Lowest Pressure:                                                                                                               977.9 (on 9/12/25)

Average Pressure:                                                                                                             1004.2

Highest Pressure:                                                                                                              1043.5 (on 27/12/25)

Sunshine Total (hrs)

Total for winter:                                                                                                                  125.3 (77.0% of 1991-2020 winter average)

Sunniest Day:                                                                                                                       7.7 (on 17/2/26)

Sunless Days:                                                                                                                       33

Most Consecutive Sunless Days:                                                                                   6 days (22/1 to 27/1)

Month with lowest sunshine total:                                                                               December 2025: 32.1 (85.0% of 1991-2020 December average)

Month with highest sunshine total:                                                                             January 2026: 48.3 (101.8% of 1991-2020 January average)

Month with fewest sunless days:                                                                                  February 2026: 9

Month with most sunless days:                                                                                     December 2025: 13

Conclusion

The winter of 2025-26 was slightly milder than average overall with January being its only colder than average month, as well as being the only month within that period which actually resembled anything like a "winter" month. Even then though, we still couldn't get any snow here even though many other parts of the UK saw quite a bit of it, so the winter as a whole was completely snowless here yet again. The number of air frosts was also well below average during the winter as a whole with January being the only month with an above average number of air frosts.

The winter of 2025-26 was fairly substantially drier than average overall in terms of the actual rainfall amounts, but was actually wetter than average in terms of the number of rain days. In terms of the actual rainfall amounts, February was the only wetter than average month and that was mainly just down to February carrying the lowest monthly 1991-2020 average as a result of it being the driest winter month on average. In terms of the number of rain days though, December was the winter's only drier than average month in that regard.

Finally, the winter of 2025/26 was substantially duller than average overall with January being its only sunnier than average month. With the days now getting longer, the amount of sunshine should be increasing over time as a result at this time of the year but in spite of that, we still ended up with less sunshine in February than what we had in January which is quite remarkable in itself.

Overall, a very disappointing winter. As well as being completely snowless, there were no ice days and no minus double digit temperatures. In fact, we struggled to even get below -5°C at any time, and there was only really the one night all winter in which that actually happened. For those reasons and for all of the above reasons, I have to give the winter of 2025-26 a rating of no higher than 2/10.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

Brian Gaze
01 March 2026 12:07:42

Hi Brian, did the winter pan out pretty much as you predicted in your winter forecast? I think you mentioned in it that you thought the best chance of a cold spell would be around the turn of the year with mild weather dominating early on and again towards the end, which is what has happened. 

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

Yes, I think it was a good one this year.  


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

The Beast from the East
01 March 2026 12:36:44

Yes, I think it was a good one this year.  

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Well done.  Cant remember if you also predicted the November cold snap?

I suppose in the modern era, if you predict mild and wet winter, you will probably be right 99% of the time


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

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