I'll be late posting up the February table and January results as I'm away skiing for a week from Sunday (have to get the snow fix somehow). I hope to return to a winter wonderland...

Official CET average for February 3.8C

Historic CET summary for February

1981-2010 (30 years) 4.39C

1991-2020 (30 years) 4.89C

2001-2020 (20 years) 4.87C

Coldest since 1970 most recent coldest in top 5, 1991

1986    -1.00

1979    1.30

1991    1.60

1983    1.80

1985    2.20

Warmest since 1970

2024    7.78

1990    7.3

1998    7.2

2002    7

2022    6.9

Last 5 All significantly warmer than average

2025    5.30

2024    7.78

2023    6.5

2022    6.9

2021    5.3

2020    6.5

So will February continue the trend of extraordinary warmth for the time of year or will this January's more seasonal cold prevail. Answers as ever by email to [email protected] by midnight on the 31st January - penalties will apply thereafter. Good luck all!

My guess this month is 3.95c

🙂🙂🙂🙂

Thanks Gavin,  much appreciated. 

4.0C for this February.  🙂🙂🙂

7.1 to the 1st

3.3c above the 61 to 90 average

2.6c above the 91 to 20 average

Wary of the model signals I went for just slightly below the 1991-2020 average for February, which ought to be playing it safe, yet the modelling for the opening third has now shifted milder to such an extent that I'm already wondering whether this month will hit pretty hard too.

Again from a relatively small change in the positioning and shape of low pressure systems. The CET area is so small and sensitive to such things.

6.9 to the 2nd

3.2c above the 61 to 90 average

2.4c above the 91 to 20 average

5.8 to the 3rd

2.0c above the 61 to 90 average

1.3c above the 91 to 20 average

5.8 to the 4th

2.0c above the 61 to 90 average

1.2c above the 91 to 20 average

Actual CET: 5.78°C

Estimate over 1°C too low just 4 days in, dreadful.

5.7 to the 5th

1.9c above the 61 to 90 average

1.0c above the 91 to 20 average

5.8 to the 6th

2.0c above the 61 to 90 average

1.1c above the 91 to 20 average

6.0 to the 7th

2.3c above the 61 to 90 average

1.3c above the 91 to 20 average

6.4 to the 8th

2.6c above the 61 to 90 average

1.7c above the 91 to 20 average

Yes mine too, I went for 4.2c I was convinced we'd get a cold spell it looked almost certain at the end of January.  But now looks like a 7c or even 8c CET is possible.  Shocking performance from the models. They've had a poor winter.

I'm only marginally better off than you at 4.4c

6.5 to the 9th

2.8c above the 61 to 90 average

1.9c above the 91 to 20 average

Apologies for the late posting of the table - I arrived back from holiday a few days back but work has been very busy.

A wide spread of guesses this month which reflects the uncertainty and the changing longer range outlook in the closing few days of January. There are a number of time penalties this month for later predictions (star against your name to help me keep track) - don't forget to get your predictions in on time! A reminder that a late prediction incurs a 0.2c penalty for each day late with no entries accepted after midnight on the 2nd of the month.

February CET Competition Predictions:

Jemblow                     7.1

Magda**                     6.3

Sussex snow magnet  6

Dickieboy68                5.68

Wallaw                         5.5

GezM                           5.5

Rick M                         5.35

Caz                              5.2

Snowshoe                    5.2

Kendalian                     5.1

Bolty*                           4.9

Domma                        4.8

Spring Sun W D           4.8

DingleRob                    4.7

Stormchaser                 4.62

WindyWillow                4.6

Grandad                        4.6

Man For All Seasons*   4.44

SaintSnow*                   4.4

Lanky                            4.28

Redmoons                    4.25

Ally Pally Snowman       4.2

Hungry Tiger                 4

ScillyDave                      3.95

February CET               3.8

Too low Caz, surely?

Ooh. Yes!  Too low.  Good job you’re awake.  😂 

6.2 to the 15th

2.4c above the 61 to 90 average

1.5c above the 91 to 20 average

6.2 to the 16th

2.4c above the 61 to 90 average

1.4c above the 91 to 20 average