The Weather Outlook

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ballamar
10 January 2026 11:40:45
Control appears to back up the op, keeps the interest up
+1
squish
10 January 2026 11:41:50
The 06z GEFS control is very much in line with the op....
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
+1
GroundhogDay
10 January 2026 11:44:02

Yes...a few of us die hards have been seeing the potential there for the last few days. But I am under no illusion that the favoured outcome is always the Atlantic winning out...at least for our part of the world.

The  06z  GEFS are more generally blocked and the AI model is also fairly blocked in the longer range, and there are hints from other models .

Worth keeping an eye on as from experience these things can change suddenly (both ways), but best to ignore the eye candy ops for the time being. UKMO 00z  +168 is probably a good balance of where we will be in a weeks time based on today's 00z output as a whole. Remember that chart and see where we are next weekend ....

Originally Posted by: squish 

Yes I agree re. the 'eye candy'. I just think we have more potential this winter than in many previous years. Could we even squeeze out a below average CET? That would be noteworthy in itself! 

Based in the snow desert that is North Northants
western100
10 January 2026 11:44:23
Looks like the GFS has caught the EMC flu from last week with the 06z 

ECM got over the mini ice age after a day

Let's see if the GFS recovers to the westerly regime 

Worcestershire / Warwickshire Border

100m ASL

X…..@Weather4u2

marco 79
10 January 2026 11:45:35
GFS 06Z...brings in cold E feed in the later stages. Let's see if it has support, it picked out the arctic outbreak pretty well before Christmas 
Home : Mid Leicestershire ...135m ASL
squish
10 January 2026 11:47:33
We have the best chance of an easterly now that the met office has dropped it from their longer range forecasts 🙂
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
+6
Rob K
10 January 2026 13:19:43

GFS 6z showing that despite the doom and gloom there is still plenty of potential! That for me is one of the best runs in many a year! A true midwinter easterly with a cold pool shown lurking just beyond 384h. 

The building blocks are shown to be in place relatively early on*, so it's possible there may be some support in the ens. It will certainly be interesting to see whether any dive close when the GEFS updates!

* Compared to CFS 😜

Originally Posted by: GroundhogDay 

Yes it looks ripe for a second properly cold blast from the east at the end.

From yesterday's GEFS which as I commented at the time had the tightest spread we have seen at kept it mild, the scatter has progressively increased. Nice to see both op and control go cold but there are still just as many mild runs as cold. Albeit the mean has dropped a degree or two since yesterday.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

+1
western100
10 January 2026 13:30:52
See what happens in a few hours 
Worcestershire / Warwickshire Border

100m ASL

X…..@Weather4u2

Snow Hoper
10 January 2026 13:41:22

Yes it looks ripe for a second properly cold blast from the east at the end.

From yesterday's GEFS which as I commented at the time had the tightest spread we have seen at kept it mild, the scatter has progressively increased. Nice to see both op and control go cold but there are still just as many mild runs as cold. Albeit the mean has dropped a degree or two since yesterday.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Nice to see all is not lost, although this notion of control and op following each other never means anything.

I think the 1947 winter started around the same time🙃

Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.

Home : Mid Suffolk.

48m Asl

Brian Gaze
10 January 2026 13:44:15

Nice to see all is not lost, although this notion of control and op following each other never means anything.

I think the 1947 winter started around the same time🙃

Originally Posted by: Snow Hoper 

1990-91 may be a better analogy. 

I'll start a new thread in a few minutes.

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

+2
Retron
20 April 2026 06:17:45
The models have been wobbling as usual with the prospective prolonged NE'ly/E'ly flow - yesterday morning both GFS/ECM went off the idea somewhat, but it returned last night and is still there, albeit diluted a bit, this morning. Just goes to show it happens whatever time of year, but of course in winter there are more eyes on every chart!

Talking of which, yesterday's 12z ECM was interesting - here's the "total snowfall" chart for the bank holiday Monday:

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/58/27877/ecmwfuk_33_360aku6.png 

UserPostedImage

Now I'm not expecting to see anything white at all, but it highlights just how cold the air aloft was in that run. It's a recipe for some convective action, I'd say; if you get -5 at 850 in late April/early May the strong sunshine - August levels of strength - will cause a fair bit of convection. Could be thunder, downpours, hail, the lot! I'll be keeping an eye on it, anyway.

Leysdown, north Kent
+1
Retron
20 April 2026 06:19:42
Hmm, looks like I've found a bug in the forums! Used an autocompleted link and wahey, you can post in closed threads. What you can't do, it seems is delete posts made in old, closed threads... whoops! 😳
Leysdown, north Kent
+2

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