Not all bad news then as I'm the man who can change that for you. I'm going to the Canary Islands and Madeira for two weeks in mid-February so cue low  pressure over Azores and rough seas and a lovely Scandi HP affecting the UK with vicious easterlies and the first snow of the year in London and Essex!

I've seen worse for 'potential'

I’m still reserving judgement about the medium term outlook (say one week out) until tomorrow, possibly Sunday. It looks pretty certain now that the first low pressure system will move across on Sunday leading to quite a bit of rain and introduce milder temperatures, its developments after that which I am unsure about.

Its not without precedent.

Also notice how the 'warm up' has now been reduced down in parts of Scotland in particular. Indeed, the -5C isotherm is back in 24 hours in some places.

Across the north the GEFS as a whole are about 2C colder compared to the 6Z. 

Not really, it’s quite similar to the 00z op run to be honest. The issue at the moment is that there is potential but the block isn’t quite strong enough to the east, if it is being underestimated by the models then the reality will be very different to what is currently shown. However, if the models are processing the data well then things will turn out as shown, a bit uninspiring and unsettled. Small changes can have significant impacts on what the outcome will be.

"When we hit our lowest point, we are open to the greatest change"

I think the 12Z ECM op was listening to you, judging by what it's come up with by T+360. 🙂 As you say JFF.

Nice easterly feed, but where's the cold air to come from?

The high will be ridging north bring down the bitterly cold air to the east of Novaya Semlya. The air is more than cold enough just to our east anyway but this would bring a whole different level of cold to northern and north western Europe.

If you look at the archives for Jan 47 and compare to what this run is showing the similarities are striking. Massive high pressure wanting to spread west from Siberia and then a very deep and powerful low coming off the eastern sea board which acts as a catalyst for hight rises pushing north drawing the Siberian high ever futher westwards. There is incredible potential in the model output for a very severe spell of winter weather as we move towards the last third of the month.

Yep more severe winds and plenty of cold rain.

FAX - next Lp from Atlantic two-centred, 973mb off Scotland and 978 mb off Ireland, SW-lies and fronts crossing Britain tomorrow (Sun); all moving away N-ward but not so far as to prevent W-lies starting up. By Wed 14th next Lp is near Greenland.

GFS Op - much as FAx though the departing LP Tue 13th drags a trough across Britain. By Fri 16th that Greenland LP has again split into two centres for N and S Britain, this time decaying into another shallow trough N-S covering Britain. Then the Azores HP pokes in 1035mb Cornwall FRi 23rd which with deep LP Iceland gives gales for the far N. Both systems fade and by Mon 26th there are quiet W-lies for Britain and W Europe.

ECM to T+240 (Tue 20th) - as GFS though by Tue 20th not much sign of the Azores HP becoming active with the LP 975mb S of Iceland and winds between NW and SW

AIFS - London maxima up to 10C by Mon 12th declining to 5C Sat 24th, most rain in first week winds S-ly and at first strong, switching N-ly from Wed 21st. Edinburgh, burst of mild Mon 12th (10C) but soon dropping back to 5C and staying there, again rain mostly in first week, but winds manage to stay W/SW-ly (by comparison with London, suggests HP somewhere to the SW cf GFS)

GEFS - temps briefly mild at start of net week then close to norm throughout, ens agreement breaks up Wed 21st and some big divergences both + and - by Tue 26th. Rain on and off most days, heaviest in the first week esp in S, and overall more persistent in W. Snow row figures after today only reach 10 and that only in Inverness.

Intense cold in the last third of the month always possible but denied by 90% of today's chart output.

So it is not just the ECM that is flip FLOPPING but now the GFS!?

The building blocks are shown to be in place relatively early on*, so it's possible there may be some support in the ens. It will certainly be interesting to see whether any dive close when the GEFS updates!

* Compared to CFS 😜

Is anyone else still seeing the potential, despite understandable model fatigue?! 

The  06z  GEFS are more generally blocked and the AI model is also fairly blocked in the longer range, and there are hints from other models .

Worth keeping an eye on as from experience these things can change suddenly (both ways), but best to ignore the eye candy ops for the time being. UKMO 00z  +168 is probably a good balance of where we will be in a weeks time based on today's 00z output as a whole. Remember that chart and see where we are next weekend ....

Gefs showing a brief warm up before back to around normal but with the usual scatter. A reaload looks primed.