The Weather Outlook

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idj20
06 January 2026 11:41:22

ICON even further north. I think we may have dodged a bullet here. Was looking grim yesterday evening for these parts. 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

Which sadly put Kent back under the wind field, which I don't want. 

Then it's pretty much maritime-type mode from there onwards. Time to look forward to experiencing the first bit of spring-like warmth provided it is dry and bright. 

Home location: Folkestone Harbour.
Rob K
06 January 2026 11:45:13
Latest fax charts have the centre of the low pretty much following the south coast from the tip of Cornwall right along to Kent. Still some interesting model watching to come I think, although it's a shame the deep cold has already been dislodged.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

+1
Rob K
06 January 2026 11:46:29

These lows normally go south so still hope. AIFS still favouring a southern track.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=aifs&var=1&run=0&time=72&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

That's pretty much exactly where the fax charts have it. Still too far north for me although you might be more lucky with that track.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

+1
The Beast from the East
06 January 2026 11:52:24
ECM showing snow for Darren for Sunday as we pull in cold dry air off the continent. 

In fact we are all too focussed on the low, the SE might just need to wait a bit

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

squish
06 January 2026 11:53:11
warrenb
06 January 2026 11:58:30

UKMO 06z

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMHDOPUK06_66_1.png 

Originally Posted by: squish 

That looks nasty, and a small tweak north and the SE will get a battering from the wind.

Tonbridge 45m 
Ally Pally Snowman
06 January 2026 12:05:50

That's pretty much exactly where the fax charts have it. Still too far north for me although you might be more lucky with that track.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Meto warnings out and I'm to far east.  Hopefully get something though.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings&ved=2ahUKEwj-gcmB8PaRAxWRRUEAHdL_COgQFnoECCUQAQ&usg=AOvVaw20L3v6GHFOFlx8khlv7AIB 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Rob K
06 January 2026 12:43:21
WRF chart looks good for me... 

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm-eur/runs/2026010606/nmm-26-74-0.png?06-11 

UserPostedImage

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

+1
Rob K
06 January 2026 12:45:03

Meto warnings out and I'm to far east.  Hopefully get something though.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings&ved=2ahUKEwj-gcmB8PaRAxWRRUEAHdL_COgQFnoECCUQAQ&usg=AOvVaw20L3v6GHFOFlx8khlv7AIB 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

I'm about 20 miles too far south but I suspect the area will be refined nearer the time (and maybe go amber depending on the track). Storm Goretti eh!

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

+1
Ally Pally Snowman
06 January 2026 13:22:04
ECM 6z is a snowy run, the Friday  event is better for me but looks more widespread generally.  It also has a widespread snow event Sunday for many.
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
idj20
06 January 2026 13:40:16

UKMO 06z

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMHDOPUK06_66_1.png 

Originally Posted by: squish 

Almost a shame that is overnight as that would probably make for a cool time lapse video showing cloud changing direction in height across a few hours here at Folkestone. 

Home location: Folkestone Harbour.
Rob K
06 January 2026 14:00:22

ECM 6z is a snowy run, the Friday  event is better for me but looks more widespread generally.  It also has a widespread snow event Sunday for many.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

ECM seems to have gone off on one there. I haven't seen any other indication of snow on Sunday!

It also has 50cm+ of lying snow in Leics/Rutland.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Quantum
06 January 2026 14:07:02

ECM seems to have gone off on one there. I haven't seen any other indication of snow on Sunday!

It also has 50cm+ of lying snow in Leics/Rutland.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Cold air is undercutting from Europe, its quite a plausible scenario that has long been hinted by most of the models. Again I still hold open the possibility the cold may actually win out. 

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Snow Hoper
06 January 2026 15:27:37

Cold air is undercutting from Europe, its quite a plausible scenario that has long been hinted by most of the models. Again I still hold open the possibility the cold may actually win out. 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

It's also what I alluded to yesterday. Not so sure the breakdown even makes it.

Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.

Home : Mid Suffolk.

48m Asl

Rob K
06 January 2026 16:23:17

ECM seems to have gone off on one there. I haven't seen any other indication of snow on Sunday!

It also has 50cm+ of lying snow in Leics/Rutland.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Well, the 12Z GFS also has a "second wave" of snow on Sunday/Monday as it makes more of the block to the east. Interesting....

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

marco 79
06 January 2026 16:24:18

ECM seems to have gone off on one there. I haven't seen any other indication of snow on Sunday!

It also has 50cm+ of lying snow in Leics/Rutland.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

I'd take that one!! 😂

Home : Mid Leicestershire ...135m ASL
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
06 January 2026 16:37:46

Well, the 12Z GFS also has a "second wave" of snow on Sunday/Monday as it makes more of the block to the east. Interesting....

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

I've noticed on my Android phone app, the temperature forecast for Sunday has dropped steadily over the last 48 hours from 9C and rain to 6C now with a rain and snow mix. 

Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)

Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)

Heavy Weather 2013
06 January 2026 16:39:08

Well, the 12Z GFS also has a "second wave" of snow on Sunday/Monday as it makes more of the block to the east. Interesting....

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

It’s crazy how close we are to the cold hanging on. Sunday / Monday could actually be a better change for us in SE compared to Thursday. I’d prefer a slightly better angle of attack on that front though

Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

Rob K
06 January 2026 16:40:40

I've noticed on my Android phone app, the temperature forecast for Sunday has dropped steadily over the last 48 hours from 9C and rain to 6C now with a rain and snow mix. 

Originally Posted by: GezM 

GFS still pushes the mild air through but we have seen in the past in these cases where step by step the models favour the block to the east. The Atlantic still looks like winning on this run but it's a step in the right direction.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

squish
06 January 2026 16:53:29
12z's thus far are still a  fair bit away from 'game on' but a step or two back from 'game over' 
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
+1
squish
06 January 2026 17:00:10
GEFS 12z  'mean' holds the cold to our east a bit better to my eye.  It's a fine balance and one to watch.  Some runs are very interesting.
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
BYF1
  • BYF1
  • Advanced Member
06 January 2026 17:01:32
The potential strong winds for Thursday night into Friday look a bit worrying for down these parts near the south coast. Chance of snow  later in weekend as the cold holds on Sat/Sun
North downs, near Folkestone, 177m asl.
Retron
06 January 2026 17:05:40

GEFS 12z  'mean' holds the cold to our east a bit better to my eye.  It's a fine balance and one to watch.  Some runs are very interesting.

Originally Posted by: squish 

The GFS op is tantalising down here for Sunday - a high of 1C with some snow, all because the winds back SE'ly for a time - via xc:

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/xc3.jpg 

UserPostedImage

Leysdown, north Kent
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
06 January 2026 17:08:09

The GFS op is tantalising down here for Sunday - a high of 1C with some snow, all because the winds back SE'ly for a time - via xc:

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/xc3.jpg 

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Retron 

30 mph wind gusts with snow at 9pm looks interesting! 

Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)

Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)

+1
Rob K
06 January 2026 17:14:11

GEFS 12z  'mean' holds the cold to our east a bit better to my eye.  It's a fine balance and one to watch.  Some runs are very interesting.

Originally Posted by: squish 

Yes there are several runs with a decent block holding to the east and the jet diving underneath. The rollercoaster continues...

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

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