Clearly there's a lot of twists and turns to come but Thursday into Friday looks like it might be one for the TWO history books. The last true 'classic blizzard' scenario with a deep channel low for the South was perhaps in the 80s. Happy to stand corrected on this.

Yes it’s tantalisingly close to something special. Not sure about the last Channel low but the potential reminds me of what happened 16 years ago tonight with a potent low although that was coming down from the northeast. That one gave 25cm of snow here, the heaviest fall since the 80s. 

iPhone app is edging colder.. several hours of “wintry mix” with temps of 0-1C. 

Are the systems currently further south than the 06z models predicted?

Yes - you wait a lifetime for a repeat of the 1930s account of the rain to snow event that buried Exning in Suffolk in a level meter of snow, and as luck would have it - I’d booked a ski trip from Wednesday to Monday - and by the time I get back, any snow will be melted away in a balmy westerly flow. Now that is Sod’s law!!

I sense you are missing the snow at home from your ski trip? apparently SE hasn;t had that much so far so I heard,. but you must have seen a little and at least there will be more snow on your ski trip. Sods law. Last year in November 2024 I was in Budapest when Exeter and many parts of Devon was under 2-3" of snow. 20th November 2024 show fell. I arrived back late 22nd November 2024 and it had all melted and there was a named storm and was so frustrating! so I can relate 100%.

Yes, down here it looks an absolute washout. I wouldn't be surprised to see rain (and possibly wind) warnings issued later today for here, but they may hold fire for one more day to allow the snow/rain boundary to become better defined - certainly *some* of the output for the south in general (away from here) would warrant a snow warning!

Very frustrating for here, still time for the trend of further south but then all the fun would be in France 😂. 

UKMO @168 looks like a chart of old with a strengthening high to the east. Lots of hope and not sure it will truly warm up in the next week, after Saturday anyone’s guess

ECM at 144 has a small undercutting low which could be key to earlier support of a Scandi high

Jan 82 onr of the severest blizzards of the 20th century across parts of the South 

For my area it looks like it may turn to snow for a while but too warm and wet to settle. Either way it looks like an “interesting” spell of weather and very different to the clear crisp conditions of late, so bring it on!

FAX - shallow troughs over Britain today, deepening to 993mb off E Scotland tomorrow. LP on Thu 988mb to the SW runs across S Britain to 971mb London early Fri soon moving to the N Sea with wind dying down to a lighter NW-ly Sat.

GFS Op - Thu/Fri LP also 970mb but a little further south, following the Channel, and isobars closer. It loses its identity over SE Europe on Sun while the first signs of a Scandi HP appear 1025mb. The next Atlantic LP makes little progress against the Scandi HP block, at its deepest S of Iceland 955mb Thu 15th, the pressure over Scandinavia rising to 1035mb with strong S-lies for Britain at this stage. The E-ly which seems to be developing Sun 18th fails as the Scandi HP  drifts SE-wards to E Russia Tue 13th with Britain left in a shsllow trough linking Iceland and Spain before the Azores HP pokes its nose in Thu 22nd.

ECM - Like GFS to Tue 13th, but then the Atlantic LP doesn't deepen but splits, by Thu 15th part grazing N Norway and part arriving at Brittany 990mb. The second part becomes an extended trough from Greenland - Britain - Holland allowing the Scandi Hp to hold on, just about, but its E-lies haven't reached Britain by Wed 21st.

GEM - somewhere between GFS and ECM to the weekend  but the Scandi HP always stays well back over Russia and the Atlantic LP s are further east, so by Wed 14th the whole of W Europe is under S-lies with a small centre of LP over Britain.

AIFS - London 3c to Sun 11th, then up to 10C before dropping slowly to 5C Sat 17th.. Rain Thu into Fri, small amounts therafter. Edinburgh, closer to zero at first, then the rise and fall as for London, rain Sun into Mon, not much earlier.

GEFS - Temps generally cold to Sun 11th (briefly mild Fri 9th), then mean close to norm with only one or two ens outliers, Rain 7th, 9th, and 11th onwards, chance of snow moderate for S Thu/Fri, more likely in N but in smaller quantities, less rain in S Scotland but more snow promised for the NE continuing for a further week.

Not a flake here. Can't you conjure me some up 😂

I am not looking forward to it. Looks to be a grim rainfest here - I will miss the bright crisp days. This cold spell has been virtually snowless for 80% of the UK population, but has been pleasant. Generally anything from the west is ugly for us. There remains some hope. But not much!

ICON even further north. I think we may have dodged a bullet here. Was looking grim yesterday evening for these parts. 

The trend certainly seems to be northwards at the moment which means the heaviest ppn across the south will be rain. Even if there is a bit of transient back-edge snow it won't amount to anything on current output. Sadly things seem to be going the wrong way at the moment - GFS 6Z even does away with the Scandi high idea for now!

Could be a last minute expansion of that cold pool of heights to the north with very cold air nearby....dont feel the models have got it nailed yet....

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=aifs&var=1&run=0&time=72&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 

Not sure the GFS entertained the idea of a scandi high on its runs that much. It was more prominent on the ECM.