The Weather Outlook

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Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
02 January 2026 19:12:21
I couldn't see a low temp watch thread, it makes sense to create one. I suspect we will see both double digit negative minima and ice days somewhere over the next 24 hours and getting colder only from there.
25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Rob K
02 January 2026 22:51:40
With clear skies and light winds I thought it would get quite low here tonight but the apps still tell me it is 0C with a low forecast of -1. 

Seeing as local stations are already at -2 to -3 I think that’s a bit conservative but maybe it will warm up overnight. 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

picturesareme
02 January 2026 23:11:07

With clear skies and light winds I thought it would get quite low here tonight but the apps still tell me it is 0C with a low forecast of -1. 

Seeing as local stations are already at -2 to -3 I think that’s a bit conservative but maybe it will warm up overnight. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Currently -2C down here. 

Rob K
03 January 2026 09:21:17

Currently -2C down here. 

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 

Similar here but a proper winter wonderland scene with sparkling frost. Looks like there may have been another light flurry of snow overnight as there are little rows of white blown in the wind on the roads… or could be just loose bits of frost!

Anyway it looks like it wasn’t a particularly cold night across the country. Lowest away from the mountain sites seems to be about -4 to -5. 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Rob K
03 January 2026 14:26:56
Lowest for January 2nd was a modest -5.7C at Drumnadrochit. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

sunny coast
03 January 2026 21:11:59
- 1 was the  lowest here last night but was around 0 at 8am qith a breeze picking up and not much viisible new fros thos morning but the wind today has helped the ground harden 
Rob K
03 January 2026 21:26:35
-7C at Sennybridge looks like the lowest so far tonight.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Rob K
03 January 2026 22:46:06
Meanwhile, not a low temperature as such but I imagine it feels pretty brisk on the summit of the Cairnwell:

CAIRNWELL AUTOMATIC 

ID: NIL 03072 Lat: 56.9 Lon: -3.4 Elev: 928m

Temp -7.9°C 

Dewpoint -8.8°C 

Feels like -21.2°C

Wind NNW 83.3kph Gust 103.7kph

Last update: 2026-01-03 22:00 UTC 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
03 January 2026 23:33:47
I think its the strong wind that's stopping the cold temperatures. If the lapse rate is adiabatic then the surface temperature is about 14C warmer than the air temperature at 850mb. So for uppers of -10C that's about 4C. So a dry airmass moving over the ocean with a T850 of -10C will have a 2m temp of about 4C. But over land radiative cooling is much stronger so the boundary layer cools and then saturates so you get a more gentle moist lapse rate. But if the wind is strong the marine boundary layer is advected over land and hence you get warmer temperatures. A strong wind also mixes out the diabatically cooled surface layer so you have to cool a greater depth of the atmosphere.

As the winds slacken we should get some more impressive temperatures. 

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

+1
picturesareme
04 January 2026 03:06:32
Just outside Fleet  -8C currently showing. 
sunny coast
04 January 2026 09:07:37
- 5  c  this morning at polegate   . No breeze this morning unlike yesterday 
Rob K
04 January 2026 09:09:42

Just outside Fleet  -8C currently showing. 

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 

Close to me and this area usually does well for low temps in conditions like this. I don’t have a proper thermometer but local PWSs are showing -6 to -7. The sensor on my heat pump is telling me it’s -2C but it always seems to overread. 

Benson seems to be the lowest of the official lowland stations at -9.1C this morning. 

Sennybridge was the lowest for Saturday with -6.8C. 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

+1
Jiries
04 January 2026 09:21:07
Went down to -4.6C on the electronic sensor over 1 m above the patio while -5C in the middle of the garden.  Conservatory went down to -2.3.  I am now watching out for tomorrow night temps to see if I can get to -10C with the tonight snow cover to aid those lose temps.
Rob K
04 January 2026 15:06:04
Temperatures seem to be dropping nicely across Scotland, already close to -5C at 2pm at Loch Glascarnoch. Edit: and -7.4C at 3pm!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Viking3
04 January 2026 15:33:33

Temperatures seem to be dropping nicely across Scotland, already close to -5C at 2pm at Loch Glascarnoch. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

And -7.4C at 3pm! But sadly the gradient winds are too high to allow the really low temperatures that would be possible given the other elements in place; cold lower atmosphere and deep, fresh snow (full of air so the perfect insulator).

Keith

Aboyne, Aberdeenshire

135m asl

Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
04 January 2026 20:12:35
I recorded a maximum temperature of 0.9C today, and only 3.5 hours of superzero conditions. For me ice days are rarer than snow days, I haven't seen one yet; but we are getting close now.

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Rob K
04 January 2026 20:45:57
Seems to be getting warmer across many areas as the evening progresses, presumably due to the disturbance arriving. Loch Glascarnoch is 4 degrees warmer at 8pm than at 3pm!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Mildly Disappointed
04 January 2026 22:38:27
Just checked outside and it feels noticeably colder. Alteady down below-6c so the coldest so far this winter here. I wonder if it will go any lower by morning
Jason

Salfords, Surrey

Rob K
05 January 2026 07:35:37

Just checked outside and it feels noticeably colder. Alteady down below-6c so the coldest so far this winter here. I wonder if it will go any lower by morning

Originally Posted by: Mildly Disappointed 

I think the cloud and maybe a bit of snow kept temps up last night.

The UK have had the first double digit minimum for the UK of the spell though with -10.9C at Shap.

Figures for Jan 4th were lowest max -9.3 at Shap and lowest max -2.5C at Loch Glascarnoch.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

+1
Mildly Disappointed
05 January 2026 07:39:23
Yes, temperature did rise overnight so only -5c this morning
Jason

Salfords, Surrey

Viking3
05 January 2026 08:39:55

I think the cloud and maybe a bit of snow kept temps up last night.

The UK have had the first double digit minimum for the UK of the spell though with -10.9C at Shap.

Figures for Jan 4th were lowest max -9.3 at Shap and lowest max -2.5C at Loch Glascarnoch.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Sennybridge in South Wales with 19cm of snow lying is plunging at the moment; -10.3C at 0800. It was only -1C at 0200 but the cloud has cleared and winds are calm. UKV had -14C in that area for 0800 this morning so it seems to be on the right track.

Keith

Aboyne, Aberdeenshire

135m asl

Rob K
05 January 2026 08:45:32
Certainly the coldest night of the spell so far with -6 and -7 across a decent chunk of the country. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Rob K
05 January 2026 12:52:47
Tulloch Bridge is steadily getting colder through the day, from -2.5C at 8am it is now -7.3C at midday, as the wind has dropped out.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Viking3
05 January 2026 19:00:58
Temperatures over the snow fields are reacting rapidly to any clear skies and a local drop in wind speed. At a PWS near Tarland in Aberdeenshire at 4pm it was -4 and 30 minutes later -10! since then the temperature has fluctuated back and forth and is about -7 just now. If we had a calm and clear night then -20s would easily be possible, but the front coming in from the west will almost certainly prevent that from happening.
Keith

Aboyne, Aberdeenshire

135m asl

bledur
05 January 2026 19:42:27
-7 at Hurn last night and Yeovilton. Not bad considering no snow cover. might go a degree lower tonight

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