GFS 12z also looking like it might get a easterly in day 10.

The MetO 168 also shows a nice high over Scandinavia - tantalising, and as with GFS it's doing a good job repelling Atlantic lows. 

Having missed out on the Christmas snow (lucky old France and Jersey), having missed out on snow so far from this NW'ly spell and - by the looks of things as they stand right now - missing out on snow from the breakdown next week, an easterly would be our best chance of seeing snow down here. We've not had a midwinter easterly in ages, so it'd be nice to buck the trend!

The Scandi HP signal is nicely present on the runs so far and GEM looks to be trying too. Outside of that, chilly air, LPs, rain, sleet or snow almost anywhere but more likely the further north you are and/or on higher ground. 

Just to cherry pick one chart, I did like the UKMO T168 - LP stalling to the east, cold air pushing towards the UK and the rain band turning to snow and pushing back west as it does so. Very old school! (UKMO also still has a bit of light snow IMBY overnight tomorrow in to Monday, so clearly it's getting things correct throughout 😂).

All very much 'as you were' so far albeit with a stronger Scandi HP signal, although a) it's FI and b) it would need the jet to cooperate to avoid it sinking and getting in the way by diverting LPs NE and allowing much milder air to get dragged up. 

Yes chart of the day goes to the UKMO 168h 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ukmhd&var=2&run=12&time=168&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref 

Well we had dandruff snow here today IMBY, it was below zero, beautiful fluffy flakes and it settled of course, but left the ground flecked with flakes - just as dandruff would appear on a black suit. Nice but not the real deal. Having said that, cars travelling from East Norfolk had quite a covering on them, and the showers over at Stalham - (well All points between Sheringham and Lowestoft) got a plastering today. Lovely weather for walking the dogs though. Crunchy and very clean paws!!

Which pretty much sums up the consistency of the mean, a flip in 2 degrees in 6 hours shows how much it can be relied upon.

 GFS is cannon fodder model. 

AIFS also had a mare for this spell produced 4 or 5 cold snowy runs only to drop them. Now it's the most mild. 

It’s crazy as the London ensembles even for the next few days has a spread of almost 8 degrees. I think next week really is all to play for when we have so much spread so early on.

Into the longer term (i.e. beyond 192) it looks like a MetO-style standoff between a Scandinavian High and the Azores High, with lows being propelled - and shredded, for want of a better term - over or close to the UK. 

EDIT: That's the 12z ECM, which is only out to T+270 at the time of posting!

Second EDIT: Looks like the Scandinavian High eventually wins, with easterlies or ENE'lies across the UK by 336. I'll not hold my breath, but I *will* say it's an interesting trend and fits well with the other models showing a similar building of pressure to our NE.

https://meteologix.com/uk/model-charts/euro/europe/sea-level-pressure/20260117-1200z.html 

Third EDIT: Nope, it only wins for a whole day - before the Azores High butts in again. Ah well, not like the 336+ charts will be anything like that come the time!

Go on give us one of your percentage maps you used to do 😅

Of interest to some in here 😉 

Pages fill fast these days, in terms of posts. See #807 yesterday.

Sorry but i don't see the relevance - it's Retron talking about the breakdown and possibilities of front edge snow.

Pretty something else ...

https://meteologix.com/uk/model-charts/euro/europe/snow-depth/20260109-0900z.html 

All academic at this range, especially given the marginality!

If possible this unwelcome Low get push further south? as I am not entirely interested with it all.  I am after direct snow events one for tonight and Tuesday night to Wednesday.

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=&y=&run=6&ville=Londres&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&runpara=0&ext=1&type=0 

 But is it right? There is no cross model agreement still. The UKMO, ECM & GEM show a different solution to the GFS. It seems to be all about the respective anticipation of Jet stream strength. The passage of the low on the GfS is much more west to east, and returns to cool zonality much faster than the other models- which see a more amplified jet and a passage of the low NW to SE. The fat lady is by no means singing just yet!! 

Down here the fat lady has not only finished singing, she's caught a taxi home and is walking up the path to her front door. 

The ECM EPS yesterday had a median 7 here on the 11th, followed by median 9s over the next few days. Could both suites be wrong? Well, yes, they could - but I strongly suspect they won't be.

The interest continues further north, of course!