The Weather Outlook

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squish
03 January 2026 10:12:05
Interesting 06z!
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
fairweather
03 January 2026 10:17:17
The ensemble charts this morning are universally showing the steady rise in 850's from the 7th Jan. I'm not looking forward to the cold rain and windy weather here but there could be some good prospects further North at first.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Polar Low
03 January 2026 10:20:18

Interesting 06z!

Originally Posted by: squish 

It is, that Low on probability of past history will be further south come the day.

I see model fatigue has set in with a few members come on guys plenty of time and opportunities will unfold.

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=114&mode=0&carte=1 

Rob K
03 January 2026 10:30:11
It really is looking increasingly likely that there could be a major widespread snow event the likes of which we haven’t seen for a long time in the next week or so.  Obviously far too early to pin down details but the theme has become very consistent on the models. 

6Z GFS has Wales and the Midlands getting hammered by two consecutive heavy snowfalls. 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

+1
MRazzell
03 January 2026 10:33:25
Yep. 

I much prefer my odds down here when its messy chaos like that shown on the 0z & 6z (so far). This cold blast is great but rare for settled weather like this to deliver any organised snow accumulation unless its at the start or end of the spell. Seeing as we're already started I'm eyeing up the end now for snow potential. 

Far north of East Sussex. +150m asl.
Polar Low
03 January 2026 10:34:35
Blizzard conditions for s and se as Low pulses away very wintry indeed there from gfs

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=06&charthour=147&chartname=preciptype&chartregion=uk&charttag=Precip%20type 

No fat Lady singing 

CField
03 January 2026 11:04:43

It really is looking increasingly likely that there could be a major widespread snow event the likes of which we haven’t seen for a long time in the next week or so.  Obviously far too early to pin down details but the theme has become very consistent on the models. 

6Z GFS has Wales and the Midlands getting hammered by two consecutive heavy snowfalls. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

I remember Feb 85.on a Saturday..snow came to the south 1 foot of level snow..the bbc forcast rain the day before...I think we could be in a similar situation now where mild sectors get squeezed out by the dense cold

Favourite snowstorm

Famous channel low

Dec 31st 1978

Hastings East Sussex

Foot of level snow severe drifting

Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius

Rob K
03 January 2026 11:07:01

Yep. 

I much prefer my odds down here when its messy chaos like that shown on the 0z & 6z (so far). This cold blast is great but rare for settled weather like this to deliver any organised snow accumulation unless its at the start or end of the spell. Seeing as we're already started I'm eyeing up the end now for snow potential. 

Originally Posted by: MRazzell 

And of course it doesn’t have to be the end of the spell. A scenario being toyed with is for lows to pass through giving the UK a dumping and then head east/southeast rather than northeast, allowing the cold to spill back over the top and perhaps even form a Scandi high. The 0Z GFS showed that possibility. 

Edit: and the 6Z GFS control run is one for the southerners with the low further south giving a classic SW/south coast blizzard from the history books. 

Whatever the outcome this is one of the more interesting spells of model watching for some time. 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

+4
Rob K
03 January 2026 11:17:12
How’s that for a minimum temperature chart from the latest GFS! 1982-esque…

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/06_216_uk2mtmpmin.png 

UserPostedImage

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

+2
Rob K
03 January 2026 11:45:19
GEFS short ensembles for London look like an improvement. The milder hump around the 9th has been flattened considerably with the mean barely struggling above -5C right out to the 11th. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

fairweather
03 January 2026 11:46:02
I'm not convinced it will happen any time soon in the S.E. Looking at the short term fax charts. There has become a big NW component in the flow with all of the disturbances that could affect the S.E running along the coast out into the N.Sea. So Newcastle, East Lincs and East Norfolk are doing well at the moment and if it drifts inland a bit more Mr.Blake in the Brecks and Retron might start getting interested. If we could get it back to a straight northerly as per the earlier charts then it would be looking good for everybody. 😀 How's Scotland doing - obviously they are doing well but looks like showers are a bit patchy now?
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Retron
03 January 2026 11:48:26

Blizzard conditions for s and se as Low pulses away very wintry indeed there from gfs

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=06&charthour=147&chartname=preciptype&chartregion=uk&charttag=Precip%20type 

No fat Lady singing 

Originally Posted by: Polar Low 

Hmm - or heavy rain and well-above zero dewpoints.

https://xcweather.co.uk/forecast/maidstone 

(Also based on the same GFS run!)

Leysdown, north Kent
ballamar
03 January 2026 11:52:55

Hmm - or heavy rain and well-above zero dewpoints.

https://xcweather.co.uk/forecast/maidstone 

(Also based on the same GFS run!)

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Indeed this sort of setup brings higher DP in the far  SE - plenty of icy pavements in following days! 

Retron
03 January 2026 12:04:01

Indeed this sort of setup brings higher DP in the far  SE - plenty of icy pavements in following days! 

Originally Posted by: ballamar 

Both the TWO and MC "precip type" charts have sleet and/or snow here at the same time, so I find it most odd! It's not even a "degree here or there" thing either, and I chose Maidstone as it's well inland (and not subject to the sea/land interpolation that xc does).

Leysdown, north Kent
+2
Saint Snow
03 January 2026 12:10:05
I like this

UserPostedImage

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Ally Pally Snowman
03 January 2026 12:13:44
AIFS 6z is similar to the GFS 6z but dewpoints look to high for snow for here . Frustrating 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
johncs2016
03 January 2026 12:21:41

And still nothing in Edinburgh 😳

Originally Posted by: Crepuscular Ray 

There never is any more, at least here in NW Edinburgh but all too often, it will be a completely different story elsewhere as shown here once again.

However, Edinburgh virtually never does very well for snow in a northerly as it is usually always completely bone dry here in such an air mass at this time of the year.

The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

ballamar
03 January 2026 12:24:07

AIFS 6z is similar to the GFS 6z but dewpoints look to high for snow for here . Frustrating 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Plenty of changes to come yet Ally, although it would be better to get the lower DP entrenched first

Ally Pally Snowman
03 January 2026 12:27:24

Plenty of changes to come yet Ally, although it would be better to get the lower DP entrenched first

Originally Posted by: ballamar 

Below zero dewpoints before and after the precipitation.  Typical.  It's close though. 🤞

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Rob K
03 January 2026 13:04:43
AIFS 6Z also has the Midlands as the sweet spot with 30cm+ of snow from the system on Friday. 0Z had it further south with snow right to the south coast. Regardless of NIMBYism there is some incredible output at the moment!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

+1
Hippydave
03 January 2026 14:26:05
Will be interesting to see where the 12zs go in a while. 

The 6z MOGREPS looked like it was fairly strongly placing the 8th/9th Jan LP well up the country, with only parts of Scotland being in colder air. It did though go back to chilly after the LP moves through albeit with a couple of dissenters. The previous higher number of snow rate members has also dwindled.

Home: Tunbridge Wells

Work: Tonbridge

+1
ballamar
03 January 2026 16:16:55
Strong Scandi High on the ICON op run blues not quite in UK but decent potential 
Ally Pally Snowman
03 January 2026 16:33:32
squish
03 January 2026 16:38:06
Lots of potential with a cold scandi high and southerly tracking lows !! UKMO/icon/gfs have multiple lows and boundary snow events …
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
doctormog
03 January 2026 16:40:35

Lots of potential with a cold scandi high and southerly tracking lows !! UKMO/icon/gfs have multiple lows and boundary snow events …

Originally Posted by: squish 

It’s a really messy picture in the medium to long term and relatively small changes could have a significant impact in what weather we get. This chart at day 10 on the GFS shows that and seems to be a trend in the evening’s output so far:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_240_2.png 

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

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