https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=17&run=18&time=132&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 

And still nothing in Edinburgh 😳

GFS is weird… seemed to be much too far north and much milder but the snow depth chart show pretty much nationwide dumping. The 850s are higher than the previous run but it is much snowier. 

Agreed

Careful there with those mean charts! Line up a millionaire and four skint blokes and their average wealth is £200K... same idea as those mean snowcover charts. There are better probability charts via MC.

Here's the snowcover chart as of Friday morning.

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/53/16346/icon_16_153tgg3.png 

EDIT: GFS also has a set of fronts crossing the country on Tuesday into Wednesday, but it's a slushy mix of rain, sleet and snow. 

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/10/13724/102_779UKzui9.GIF 

Of course it won't happen (even without the dodgy dewpoint), but it shows just how much soggy snow you can get *if* you're just on the right side of the rain/snow divide.

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/xc2.jpg 

One of the other things with the 0z GFS and GEM too, for that matter, is how the deep snowcover modelled over Scotland and northern England isn't going anywhere any time soon - the former keeps it there, largely untouched, out to 300 at least, while GEM has it being slowly nibbled away but still largely intact by 240. Looks like a truly classic spell for some!

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/98/6734/gensprobuk_26_114yvl5.png 

Their "risk of 1cm or more of snow on the ground" chart is lower-res, but gives an idea - here it is at 144:

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/73/14207/gensprobuk_52_144qnx4.png 

Hi Retron

I think FI begins at around t96 at the moment so AFAIAC its cold in the foreseeable. Id wait til tomorrows 0z before allowing the warm uppers to rain on this parade.

MFAS

Really FI is now 0 we had unexpected Cheshire Gap streamers last night due to strong NW winds not N winds that they not pick this up on the charts or ensemble precip spikes as only due for tomorrow night.   

Yes, I'd agree with that - as it stands this morning (and there's still plenty of time for it to change), it looks more likely that all the action will be well north of here. In the meantime there are at least three sparkling, very cold days to enjoy!

I'm not greedy just one 5cm at least fall that lasts a couple of days . Is that to much to ask? 

GFS offers some hope to extending the cold. But I have my doubts.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&var=2&geoid=50893&lid=ENS&bw=1 

Same, I just want to see some snow falling and everything coated. Why is it always so difficult 😞

Still basically 3 months + of snow season left. You may get to see something yet. 

It just too many restrictions imposed/attacks to prevent snow from getting properly all over UK.  Next chance i seen on the Nuneaton ensembles a spike for tomorrow night but have to see since last night had a unexpected snow showers despite no spikes,.   5cm like what Matt say is sufficent enough to enjoy.  I am after minimum of 10cm of snow, and below -10C at nights with subzero maxes which not too much to ask.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=48656&model=gfs&var=201&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 

True, I'm feeling pessimistic this morning though.  The stunning charts are disappearing fast. 

I think you are still very much in the game with your location and altitude. 

GFS Op - the LP on Wed 7th is over Orkney 1000mb, sticking there and deepening until displaced by the winner from a complex set of Atlantic LPs (not a clean sweep with a front as FAX) gets to N Wales 980mb Fri 9th (looks cold but probably snow only for hills). This withdraws NW-wards leaving Britain and a large area from Iceland to Norway in no mans land for any pressure differences, and not that cold for the time of year. Eventually HP builds from S Norway to Britain (but slipping S-wards) Sun 18th1035mb, SW-lies for Shetland, E-lies with a modest cold pool for England.

ECM - follows GFS to Fri 9th but that LP deepens and moves NE, not NW, to Scottish Borders 970mb Mon 12th with some colder air entrained. Instead of slack pressure and mild air, there are a variety of cold LPs eventually the strongest is 985mb S Ireland Thu 15th bringing in NE-lies until HP noses back from the Azores Sun 18th.

GEM - the LP Wed 7th pushes on E-wards, but to 980mb Holland Fri 9th before filling and being replaced by a conventional Atlantic depression approaching W Scotland Mon 12th.

A good time for model comparisons, all predicting something different.

AIFS - London maxima close to 0C for the weekend, then with some variation mostly 5C, rain Fri 9th/Sat 10th and again a week later. Edinburgh, stays close to zero to Fri 9th and again Wed 14th, slightly milder before and after, some snow probable Wed 7th and periods of rain thereafter.

GEFS - mean temp about 8C below norm now, rising steadily to norm or a little below from Mon 12th, but little agreement of ens members by then (op notably colder). Rain in most ens members from Wed 7th, possibly snow in the south at first, more likely snow in the north then, driest in the NE (which along with the E coast has some snow before the 7th)

A bit of a muddle this morning - you'll need to look for yourself and pick your favourite😊

UKV 3Z run has 134cm of snow depth over the Cairngorms by Thursday morning and 60-90cm widely across Sutherland. Not sure I’ve ever seen such figures even on model charts. 

I'm not sure there is one this morning IMBY😂

As Darren mentioned in his earlier soliloquy (🤪) it's generally just the wrong side of marginal down here in the mid term, although most models would I suspect bring a wintry mix for MBY at times. It's pretty unusual for me to see proper breakdown snow so I guess not surprising to see most of the action modelled to be where it usually is (some way north of London).

Other than a slight tweak to the temps/setup so that things are a bit milder down here the bigger picture remains generally similar and as it stands somewhere is likely to get a decent fall, even if temporary.  There's also some really fun overnight temps modelled at times over the Scottish snowfields. The ens look okay although I can't see the ECM set on TWO at the mo again, just the deviation which suggests they're broadly as they have been I think. MOGREPs is fairly consistent with the 12z set - temps around 5c down here post the northerly phase seem favoured but worth checking out the little light blue fella who keeps it much colder and has snow depth just over 20cm for London and a very cold night following! I'm not sure what parameters the snow rate uses but there's a lot of spikes for London, suggesting some wintry stuff falling although bluey aside not a lot have lying snow (2-3 I think at various times).

One thing I'll look out for over the next few runs is if there's more hints of HP setting up over Scandi. All the models seem to be toying with the idea but on this mornings op runs at least nothing overly fun comes of it other than GFSs FI effort, which is a bit grudging but does bring decently cold air in. 

Looking IMBY there's been a fairly persistent signal for a little trough/feature to move down through parts of Wales, southernish Northern England, the Midlands and into Southern England and potentially MBY on the 4th/5th Jan. 

UKV has it as a trough with a line of convection sinking south but not very organised so very hit and miss. 

GEM has a more organised feature but it breaks as it heads south so may miss me. 

GFS looks to have it further west and then springing to life as an organised feature as it hits the French coast (sigh). 

ECM has nothing for most, maybe a brief period of enhanced convection for Wales and the far SW albeit showing as wet for most.

UKM does have it and more organised than UKV (I assume it's a resolution thing and UKV should be considered more likely?)

Arpege also has it although a bit further west so likely missing me and again it peps up as it hits the French coast. 

Something to watch I guess although it'd only be another dusting if anything reached MBY I imagine.