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The very subtle downward tweaks in the ensemble data continue in the short term with the mean t850 hPa here bottoming out at -12.0°C on Saturday night on the 06z GEFS set.
Current conditions (personal WS)
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/hauteur-neige/48h.htm
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=24&carte=2000
Some Pembrokeshire Dangler action so could be some copious snow totals over the Moors of the far southwest and most specifically the Preseli Hills by Sunday morning.
Another stonker from the AIFS 6z also another easterly.
Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman
last nights one was the coldest member, which gave false hope
Berkhamsted
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Fax charts from 0z this morning
Originally Posted by: Man For All Seasons
GFS 06z says rain here. Feels quite mild out there now despite being supposedly under deep cold uppers. I guess this is the modern winter in action.
Not according to yesterday’s MetO deep dive (excellent if you’ve not seen it) very little anywhere in the South West or anywhere west. Did mention the possibility of a “bit on the top of Dartmoor”
TBFTEIARBSC
Shame there won't be any snow with this but could be the coldest winters day in several years!? - An average ENS daytime max of 0.6c for the capital?
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49068&model=gfs&var=2&run=06&lid=ENS&bw=1
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com
2 week freeze up from AIFS 6z multiple ice days and snow events. Doesn't get any better than that.
On a serious note - how seriously does one take these AI models? - @270z the -10c over most of country and -12 to -14c uppers just to the SE.
Originally Posted by: tallyho_83
AIFS is the best performing model statistically. So very seriously.
AIFS has produced 3 snowfests in a row . Let's hope it's onto something.
The 06z GFS ENS have trended colder in short term. The 850hpa mean for London at 06:00 +72z is a very cold -11.1c and at midday it is -10.7c- just saying...
6Z GEFS have also trended colder in the longer term with several more cold runs around the 10th to 12th. Still lots of scatter but the cold runs are starting to dominate. p13 is a nice example.
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Originally Posted by: Rob K
How do I find the GEFS?
I use this:
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ensembles.php
It gives easy access to the ensembles for GFS, ECM, Mogreps and others. You can choose any location by touching the maps.
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E
TWO GEFS viewer is:
https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx
100m ASL
X…..@Weather4u2
But isn’t it always in these scenarios ?