A rather underwhelming ECM run from T168 to T240. Will have a look at the extended when it's out and see if it carries on in similar fashion or gets more interesting later on. 

GEFS are much the same as the 6z, so some encouragement but mild still looks as likely as cold, if not a touch more so depending on how you squint at things.  Maybe the other way round for more northern parts. 

I'd be surprised to see a big shift in the ECM ens suite but will soon find out I guess.

slim pickings though and quite a dramatic shift to mild in the EPS.  But a prolonged spell was always a long shot. Just hope some of you will see some snow before we revert to the usual pattern

The ICON is, wonder of wonders, a snowy run - a complete reversal of last night's 12z run which showed an unremarkable Atlantic flow. It even has a nascent Scandinavian High at the end!

Here's the 12z from yesterday and the 0z from today at the same time:

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/26/16377/icon_0_180weu2.png 

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/67/23041/icon_0_174jsp1.png 

The 12 ECM ensembles were markedly warmer from 168 onwards down here, with the median rising a couple of degrees from the 0z output. As the ICON is based on ECM code I'll be interested to see whether the ECM goes colder today - or maybe the ICON has just gone off on one.

EDIT: And GEM is closer to ICON, with lashings of snow!

It seems it all hinges, as ever, on the vagaries of the jet. It looks like an area of low pressure will be dragged SE'wards by the jet in the vicinity of Ireland around 132, but whereas GEM and ICON develop it more the MetO and GFS make less of it - and those models that develop it more then go on to have a cold "no man's land" over the UK, with the Azores High kept west, whereas the models that don't develop it as much go on to build the Azores High more and thus return Atlantic westerlies to our shores. 

It continues to be a fascinating period of model-watching, doesn't it? Makes a change from the "will it be 10C or 12C, will we see 5mm or 10mm or rain" sort of thing we'd expect at this time of year!

https://meteologix.com/uk/model-charts/euro/europe/temperature-850hpa/20260108-0000z.html 

As with the MetO deep dive yesterday it's all very uncertain in terms of whether the Atlantic will make a full return, a partial return, or not at all for a while - and today's output has done nothing to clear it up. 

Looks like they got it nailed!!

Its possible to discern two channel lows possibly bringing snow to the south in that period on the 0z ECM. All academic as it will be gone in the evening time and replaced with a different scenario, but a great ECM run which appears to stay cold at the surface for most until the last day. Massive amounts of chaos and a borderline battleground with the jet either across the southwest of just offshore.  More twists and turns guaranteed.

GEFS seems to be firming up on the milder hump but even there there are still a number of cold options. 

And in new year cheer… the ensemble mean 850s drop below -5C today and stay there for almost a full week. Quite a rare sight!

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/opencharts_meteogram?base_time=202601010000&epsgram=classical_10d&lat=51.7357&lon=0.46958&station_name=Chelmsford 

Btw you can check your location TOP Right (select dimensions)

A happy and healthy new year everyone and thanks very much Brian and mods for making it happen.

Agreement isn't universal but nudges my optimism back towards maybe I'll see a few flakes, rather than I won't. Typically I'd told the wife it'd be dry based on yesterday AM runs, so I may have to backtrack slightly although I doubt it'll produce anything more than a brief spell of light stuff, whether wet or white. 

Looking longer term on the GEFS and we're back to a watered down version of the second 850s dip from around 9th to 12th Jan. That signal was there the other day, disappeared and is now back again. It's chilly rather than cold (down here at least) but as the snow row shows (6 at it's highest) it does raise the possibility of seeing some wintry precip. Deeper into FI the grouping appears better on the mild sign of the line down here, albeit it's a messy picture, whilst there's still some colder members to be found too. (Further North the milder signal really only strongly kicks in post 14th and is more of a balance of possibilities between milder and cooler than average). 

ECM ens aren't dissimilar to GEFS IMO and again looking IMBY - less clear second dip signal but there's one there I think and the deep FI signal is very similar. 

All in all and as mentioned by Darren you can see why the MetO 10 day dive was so non committal for the later part of their vid -> picking whether it'll be cold, chilly, mild, settled etc. for the mid term at the moment seems like a gamble as it could end up totally different. I think I'll hop off the fence today and go with chilly and unsettled but not cold enough IMBY for it to be overly interesting, but good for the Scottish ski industry as the GEFS snow row suggests:-

GFS Op - In this model the W-lies win out, and are well established by Thu 8th between LP 980mb Iceland and HP 1035mb Azores. The winds go round NW-ly for a while, and then back W-ly and stronger as the next LP is closer 980mb N Scotland Mon 12th. Then a period of slack pressure before Thu 15th when LP runs up the Channel 985mb and tries to re-establish a cold spell of NE-lies, but  without success as all the cold air has been moved to the other side of Scandinavia by the preceding week's W-lies.

ECM - W-lies again win out but for a shorter period. The LP near Scotland Mon 12th does not materialise. Instead there are two LPs running the Channel/N France, 1005mb Sat 10th and 995mb Tue 13th. Again, although these create E-lies there's no cold air to tap into and by Thu 15th the W-lies are back in full force.

GEM - quite a contrast. The LP which might have established the W-lies around Thu 8th fills and that near Scandinavia deepens bringing N-lies down across Britain Fri 9th, though as usual mainly affecting the east coast. 

AIFS - London, briefly maxima 5C then an unusually (for recent years) long spell with maxima close to 0C, out to Thu 15th, overnight temps often dipping to -5C. Very little pptn. Edinburgh, also a prolonged cold spell, and even colder for the w/e of Sat 10th with maxima at this time as low as -5C.

GEFS - very cold (often 8C below norm) to Thu 8th, then mean temp close to or a little below norm with ens agreement steadily breaking down. Some snow in the cold spell for the east esp northeast, then more likely as rain around Fri 9th and Wed 14th, some in some runs at other times too. 

AIFS (with tentative support from GEM) vs the rest

Good again and notice the scattering are not knit together in the today range onward, there slight scattering as early as today onward and 2 members going for -14c which had been the case for days now.  Normally it all tight clustered up to 5 days but not this time now,  Nowcast and window watching is the best way now.  Expecting snowfall tonight follow by sunny and very cold temps over night with some snow again on Monday.  Today is the day to see the colder air coming as day progress.

There a clue that Nicosia ensembles will get very warm next week after a brief cold shot at -4C to near 10C. This mean the colder weather in the UK will persist if the E Med and SE Europe like Greece won't get cold.  Nicosia was 19C when had -5c max on 7th Feb 1991.

They really being weird those apps, last night they restored back to snowflakes and showing every single day bar Saturday sunny. This morning they remove this and put back the wrong wintery mix.  It really nowcast situation and window watching is more accurate to see what outside like.   Notice the scattering on the 00z ensembles this morning is very unusual as the models struggle with this rare set up, not a clean bone dry toppler northerly or mild SW that brought tight clustering of members which models can handle well out of it.  To  my eyes it look going to be very cold but very unsettled set up with HP faraway west from Ireland.

I was wondering why I got a weather warning this morning for snow here, then I looked at the updated fax chart for tomorrow and it shows a shallow low with a frontal system, with the ‘warm’ front lying from Bristol to Liverpool at midnight tonight, presumably moving SSE.

Also of note on the fax charts is a marked and sustained convergence zone down the Irish Sea which sets up by Saturday and extends down through Cornwall and into the English Channel by Sunday.

I thought they used GFS?  My android phone uses Accuweather I think

GFS not having it but the uncertain bit is not resolved yet as Darren and others have explained. 

At least it's giving us not usually impacted by a northerly types something to look at anyway!

GFS 6z is entertaining IMBY. It has -7 uppers, surface temps just above freezing and rain. I do have a bit of height in my favour, so would expect to see something a touch more wintry than that but if not and depending on if temps are low enough before hand we just might get a bit of an ice glaze if it is rain (may start as snow, usual 3 hour interval thing). 

I have been looking at the precip showing for Cornwall as it's a part of the world we visit regularly and I'd have thought some of the higher parts in particular could see some decent snow showers, with accumulations over the highest ground at least. Will be interesting to see what happens and if they get any warnings - the 10 day trend was fairly dismissive of anything other than small accumulations over Bodmin/Dartmoor but I wonder if that's not a little too conservative. 

Thanks for explaining it layman terms.  At least we dont need to read through all the guff on netweather.